PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson Cash and GPP Strategy
AT&T Byron Nelson
TPC Craig Ranch - Par 71 - 7,414 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $9.5M
There's a chance that everyone besides K.H. Lee is just playing for second place this week as the back-to-back champion comes in at a collective 51-under-par across the event's first two editions hosted by TPC Craig Ranch, and the competition he'll face in the quest for three in a row won't even be all that stiff with most of the Tour's top players beginning their prep for the upcoming PGA Championship.
The K.H. Open jokes aside, this Dallas-area venue features wide fairways, relatively large greens and a trio of reachable par-5s. Although a handful of lengthy par-4s exist, so too do a magnitude of par-breaker opportunities. It's viable to just wail on driver throughout the layout as the surrounding bermuda rough isn't very penal, but slow-ish bentgrass putting surfaces can still expose the field's worst putters. Nearly 35 percent of approach shots typically come from 200-plus yards at TPC Craig Ranch, so expect quality long-iron players with a hot flat stick to contend down the stretch. The only legitimate defense might be the weather, with plenty of rain and wind expected throughout the weekend.
2022 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2021 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2020 - None
2019 - Sung Kang (Trinity Forest Golf Club)
2018 - Aaron Wise (Trinity Forest Golf Club)
2017 - Billy Horschel (TPC Four Seasons)
2016 - Sergio Garcia (TPC Four Seasons)
2015 - Steven Bowditch (TPC Four Seasons)
2014 - Brendon Todd (TPC Four Seasons)
2013 - Sangmoon Bae (TPC Four Seasons)
Key Stats to Victory
Proximity: 200-plus yards
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Scottie Scheffler - $48
Scheffler is shorter than 4/1 in the outright betting market this week, so he's really a no-brainer at a sub-$50 salary, especially considering he's sandwiched by Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama atop the board. Jordan Spieth's WD due to a wrist injury will cause Scheffler's rostership to spike even higher than it was originally projected, but the opportunity cost of pivoting to Day/Matsuyama for game-theory purposes is quite severe given just how much better Scheffler is right now, so I'd probably only consider it in lower-stake, single-entry settings. The value is good enough to eat the Scheffler chalk here in his home state of Texas and secure a whole lot of win equity at an affordable $48.
Tom Kim - $45
Not only did Kim rank top-10 in SG: Tee-to-Green at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, but he's also added speed with the driver as of late, gaining distance on the field in three of four starts dating to THE PLAYERS Championship. The putter has been cold since late February for Kim, which helps explain just one top-20 result over his past seven outings, but he's also proven capable of spike weeks on the greens like we saw during his wins at the Shriners Children's Open and the Wyndham Championship last year. In Kim's 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson debut, he gained 5.7 strokes with his irons on the way to a T17 finish.
Sam Stevens - $34
Stevens rebounded from a missed cut at the RBC Heritage by placing top-50 in Charlotte at just $25 last week, despite losing nearly three strokes putting. The $9 salary hike to $34 should once again keep his exposure in check, but we're targeting someone who's fourth in P4: 450-500 Efficiency, fourth in Opportunities Gained, fifth in Birdies or Better Percentage and 12th in SG: T2G over their last 24 measured rounds. When the flat stick actually cooperated for him at the Valero Texas Open last month, Stevens finished runner-up.
Eric Cole - $33
Gaining strokes with his irons in seven of eight starts dating back to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Cole sits fifth in SG: APP and eighth in P4: 450-500 Efficiency over his past 36 rounds, a stretch that includes top-5s at the Honda Classic and the Mexico Open. I'm not worried about his MC against a stacked field at Quail Hollow last week, where he lost 2.8 strokes putting across 36 holes.
Michael Kim - $26
Kim has gained at least 3.0 strokes putting in four consecutive measured events, guiding him to the No. 7 spot in Birdies or Better Gained over his last 24 rounds. Kim's ball striking also kept up with the hot putter at the Wells Fargo, where he gained a collective 7.2 strokes off the and approaching the green to ultimately finish seventh, marking his second top-10 in as many months. His floor/ceiling combo is tough to find in the $20s, and it makes him deployable in both cash and GPP formats.
Dylan Wu - $21
Wu finds himself even higher than the aforementioned Kim in BoB Gained over his last 24 rounds at No. 3 in this metric, and the former has the putter rolling right now as well after picking up six strokes on the greens at Quail Hollow. Wu hasn't missed a cut since January's Farmers Insurance Open, so there might be very few contests where Wu's rostership percentage remains in the single digits.
Jimmy Walker - $21
The 44-year-old Texan missed five straight cuts earlier this season from the Sanderson Farms Championship through The American Express, but he's currently enjoying a resurgence with four consecutive top-25s from the Valero Texas Open through the Wells Fargo Championship. He's gained strokes both tee to green and with the putter in each instance, but Walker's also notably top-15 in driving distance and par-5 scoring over his past 24 rounds.
Nate Lashley - $21
Lashley won't impress anyone off the tee, but his 6.6 strokes gained approaching the green last week at Quail Hollow matched his career-best, and he's now up to ninth in Prox: 200-plus over his last 24 rounds. Within this sample, he's also third in par-5 scoring, 14th in Opportunities Gained and 15th in SG: APP. Lashley tied for 17th at 18-under-par here at TPC Craig Ranch last year when he fired a 67 or better in each of Rounds 2-4.
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