‘Worst is over.’ As COVID cases drop in Tarrant County, where do we go from here?

As COVID-19 cases decline across the nation, Tarrant County health officials believe the worst of the pandemic might be over.

Officials are optimistic that immunity will increase as the result of vaccines and the people who have recovered from COVID-19. Treatments to control virus symptoms are just within reach, but until more people are vaccinated, we may continue to see waves, one health expert said.

Whether there is a full recovery from the virus may depend on vaccination rates, said Rajesh Nandy, professor of biophysics and epidemiology at the UNT Health Science Center School of Public Health. Vaccination rates tend rise and fall with case rates.

More than 60% of Tarrant County residents 12 and older are fully vaccinated compared to 73% in Texas.

Vinny Taneja, the Tarrant County public health director, said he is is optimistic that new treatments will help COVID-19 patients recover and manage symptoms.

“From a public health strength standpoint, some of the things, that’s just golden rules, right?” Taneja said. “If there’s a vaccine available, and you want to prevent illness, get vaccinated.”

There is “indirect evidence” we are close to herd immunity, based on the number of people vaccinated and those who have recovered, Nandy said.

“Again, that doesn’t mean that we don’t need to be cautious, because things can get worse, but still, we are at a stage of the pandemic where I truly believe that the worst is over,” Nandy said. “It’s not totally over, but the worst is over.”

But at some point immunity wears off. Nandy said the hope is to eventually be able to say the virus is gone completely. There’s no telling what will happen in the spring, he said, but if case numbers rise again, they are not expected to have the same effect because of the new treatments on the horizon.

He expects a rise in cases this winter because of holiday travel, and he doubts people will follow safety precautions as stringently as they did last year.

Meanwhile, life in Tarrant County is adjusting accordingly.

On a warm Thursday just before noon, business was slow-moving as shops opened along West Magnolia Avenue, where crowds usually flock on weekends.

Mark Maughan sat on a patio taking drags from a Pall Mall cigarette before his shift at The Chat Room.

The bar still had protections in place— masks, plastic shields and what Maughan believed to be general vaccination status among employees, he said. Though there’s a mask requirement, people have been coming without them, he said.

The conversation wasn’t worth having anymore, he said.

“People think the pandemic’s over, but I know it’s not,” Maughan said. “We know it’s not.”

Down the street at Stir Crazy Baked Goods, most employees wore masks. Owner Robbie Werner said that’s the one safety measure she can control for her staff. She has seen how masking has helped eliminate COVID cases, especially among her employees. Over the course of the pandemic, only three got sick, she said.

Seating in the shop just recently reopened as case numbers decreased, and patrons aren’t required to mask, Werner said. When masking was optional, Werner said, employees needed thick skin to deal with customer backlash.

When the requirement ceased for customers, the fighting stopped, and business became “about the bakery again.”

“It did get political,” Werner said. “You know, it was kind of like drawing a line in the sand, Which side are you on?’ And nobody wants to play that game. We’re just trying to make everybody happy with cookies and cupcakes.”

Martin Thompson, owner of the Cat City Grill, said business was picking up. The pandemic forced out 10 to 12 of his employees, and regulars who tipped excessively helped keep the restaurant going as well as two rounds payroll protection program loans.

He has seen customers happy to be out and not wearing masks.

“They want to get back to normal,” he said. “Whatever normal is now.”

At Mansfield school district, a spokesperson said in an email the district will continue to monitor for cases and use its advisory system that takes case levels into account and adjusts protection measures, like not allowing visitors and doing self-contained lunches.

The Fort Worth and Arlington school districts did not respond to multiple requests for comment on how each school system was moving forward as cases decline.