Who will win at the 2024 Oscars, according to the stats

The Oscars are nearly here and if you want to impress your friends, you can pretty much tell them who the big winners on the night will be.

With the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards and the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards taking place over the weekend, all of the major predictor awards have now revealed their winners and history tells us how they'll impact the Oscars.

You can never be 100% sure – and we don't like to boast – but when it comes to the six major categories (Best Picture, Directing and the four acting awards), Digital Spy has a strong success rate when it comes to predicting who will win.

Last year, we correctly guessed four of the six winners, and even one we missed out on (Actress in a Supporting Role) was because we went with our heart (Angela Bassett) over our head (Jamie Lee Curtis).

So using history as our guide, here's who will win at the 2024 Oscars in Best Picture, Directing and all four of the acting categories.

Best Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Likely winner: Oppenheimer

benny safdie in oppenheimer

Sometimes the preferential voting system of Best Picture makes us think there could be a surprise on the night, but it's hard to see anything other than Oppenheimer winning the Oscar.

After winning top honours at the BAFTAs, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards, the Golden Globes and more, Oppenheimer has now won the PGA Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture.

In the same weekend, Oppenheimer also won the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture prize at the SAG Awards.

Of the 34 years it's been running, the PGA Awards has corrected predicted 24 Best Picture winners, including the past three winners. The SAG Awards has matched the Oscars 14 times out of the 28 years it's had an ensemble prize.

If anything other than Oppenheimer wins Best Picture, it would be a huge surprise after the way it's coasted through awards season.


Nominees: Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Likely winner: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

cillian murphy as j robert oppenheimer and writer, director, and producer christopher nolan on the set of oppenheimer
Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures

We're not saying that the other nominees might as well not bother showing up, but Christopher Nolan winning his first-ever Oscar is as sure a bet as we we have going into this year's Oscars.

Nolan has been on a victory lap for pretty much the entire awards race, winning Best Director at the likes of the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice awards and at the BAFTA Film Awards.

To cap it all, he also won the Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film at the DGA Awards earlier this month.

There have only been eight occasions in the DGA's 75-year history where the winner has missed out on Oscar glory, most recently in 2020 when Sam Mendes lost out to Bong Joon-ho at the Oscars.

It's extremely unlikely we'll see such a surprise at this year's Oscars.

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Likely winner: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

cillian murphy, oppenheimer

Even though Cillian Murphy won at the BAFTAs, Paul Giamatti won at the Critics' Choice Awards and the two won their respective Best Actor categories at the Golden Globes.

It means that you couldn't be fully sure about whether Murphy could win his first-ever Oscar from his first-ever nomination. But now that the SAG Awards have crowned Murphy over Giamatti, we're going for Murphy to win at the Oscars.

When it comes to Actor in a Leading Role, the SAGs have matched the Oscars 23 times in its 29-year history. It's also extremely rare for an actor to have won at the Globes and the SAG Awards and not win the Oscar as it's only happened seven times.

You can't fully rule out an upset on the night, but we feel more confident in this category than we do in the Actress in the Leading Role category. Speaking of which...

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Likely winner: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

janae collins, lily gladstone, cara jade myers, jillian dion, killers of the flower moon
Apple TV+

Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone have traded wins at the major Oscar indicators with Stone winning at the Critics' Choice Awards and Gladstone winning at the SAG Awards. Both of them also won their respective categories at the Golden Globes.

(Stone won at the BAFTAs too, but she wasn't competing against Gladstone, who missed out on a nomination.)

It's likely that the SAG win for Gladstone gives her the edge at the Oscars and, like at the Golden Globes, she would become the first-ever Native American to win Actress in a Leading Role if she triumphed on the night.

Stone has won an Oscar before though, so you can't rule out her as a popular vote among Oscar members. However, the SAG Awards have matched the Oscars 21 times in its 29-year history and, like with Murphy, only seven actors have won at the Globes and SAG Awards and not gone on to win the Oscar.

Anybody other than Gladstone or Stone winning the Oscar would be a surprise as there have only ever been three Oscar acting winners that haven't won at the Critics' Choice, BAFTAs, SAG Awards and the Golden Globes.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sterling K Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Likely winner: Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer)

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), American Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Likely winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

robert downey jr in oppenheimer, da'vine joy randolph in the holdovers

Things are much clearer when it comes to the supporting categories which is why we've put them together.

Like Nolan in the Directing category, Robert Downey Jr and Da'Vine Joy Randolph have been on a victory lap throughout the awards season, winning at any ceremony that matters when it comes to the Oscars.

The SAG Awards was the last chance to sow some doubt that they wouldn't win at the Oscars, but they both won again to effectively seal their Oscar wins.

If we're right in the other two acting categories, this year's Oscars will mark the third year in a row where the Oscar winners have exactly matched the SAG Awards.

The 96th Academy Awards take place on Sunday, March 10 in the US. It will be broadcast live on ITV in the UK.

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