Week 3 Fantasy Lames: McCoy to get trampled by aggressive Broncos
Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names whom he believes are
destined to implode leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 12 fpts, WR: 11 fpts, TE: 10 fpts). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 3 Lames in the comments section below.
[Watch on Yahoo: Ravens vs. Jaguars live from London Sept. 24]
Russell Wilson, Sea, QB (85 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $34)
Matchup: at Ten
If only NFL defenses really wore roller skates, then Wilson would actually live up to his enormous statistical promise. Speaking as an R-Dubs investor in entirely too many leagues, the passer’s languid start is terribly discouraging. In a pair of exploitable matchups, Green Bay and San Francisco, Mr. Ciara fell abysmally short of the QB1 ranks. Second only to Deshaun Watson in under pressure percentage (43.6), he’s endured persistent heat, which explains the slow start. Seattle’s offensive line is undeniably shoddy, which is a benefit to Wilson’s running improvisations, but comes at a terrible vertical cost. His receivers’ inability to shake defenders (No. 39 in receiver target separation) and an inconsistent ground game have only added to the misery. It’s only two weeks and Chris Carson’s Week 2 breakout suggests a turnaround is on the horizon, but with only one favorable matchup over his next five, sunny days are further away than most believe. To be fair, Tennessee is another beatable opponent. Fantasy QBs have performed 13.9 percent above the league average against it. Titans corners Logan Ryan and Adoree Jackson together have allowed a 131.1 passer rating. As a whole, however, Tennessee has given up a mediocre 7.3 pass yards per attempt. Unless vintage Steve Largent dons a ‘Hawks uniform again and the offensive line employs orcs from Middle Earth, Wilson underachieves for the third-straight week.
Fearless Forecast: 211 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 turnover, 27 rushing yards, 14.1 fantasy points
Lamar Miller, Hou, RB (82 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $22)
Matchup: at NE
Picking up where he left off, Miller has one leg in the wood chipper. Horribly inefficient in multiple categories last year including juke rate, yards after contact per attempt and total evaded tackles, he’s again the dark angel of advanced analytics. Against the Jaguars and Bengals he netted a hideous 3.6 yards per carry and forced ONE missed tackle on 40 touches. Painful. Unsurprisingly, Bill O’Brien elevated the role of backup D’Onta Foreman. Though he averaged just 3.4 yards per carry versus the Bengals, the rookie registered a situational success run rate of 62 percent according to Sharp Football. Unlike Miller, he also circumvented defenders, totaling two missed tackles (on 12 carries) and posted a laudable 2.7 YAC. Houston, which ranks No. 29 in power running per Football Outsiders, needs to establish itself on inside runs in order to help reduce pressure on rookie QB Deshaun Watson. Bottom line, BOB may lean on Foreman more to gain tough yardage, relegating Miller to 50-55 percent of the opportunity share. Yes, New England has allowed the most fantasy points to RBs in the early going giving up a ridiculous 7.14 yards per carry, but with D’onta Hightower expected to return as early as this week and knowing Houston’s offensive line issues, Miller underwhelms on roughly 13-16 touches.
Fearless Forecast: 14 carries, 42 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 25 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.7 fantasy points
LeSean McCoy, Buf, RB (95 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $34)
Matchup: vs. Den
Owners who believe McCoy will tally his customary 100 total yards this week are sure to react with a John Kelly-level exasperation. Defending the run was Denver’s primary weakness a season ago, but under Vance Joseph, the Broncos have suffocated the competition. Just ask Zeke Elliott. Seemingly tranquilized last week in the Mile High City, the revered rusher looked more like an Elsa Power Wheels than his usual battering ram self. On 13 touches, he notched a career-worst, by a wide margin, 22 yards. Stymieing Zeke and Melvin Gordon Week 1, Denver has given up an almost unreal 2.42 yards per carry. McCoy, shockingly, fell flat in Week 2 against Carolina, but he’s evaded 10 total tackles this year and tallied 201 yards on 45 touches. However, much of that was accomplished against favorable boxes. In fact, he’s only seen a stacked front 11.7 percent of the time. Because Chris Harris, Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby can fend for themselves, the Broncos have the luxury of crowding the box. Without a reputable pass game to loosen the constriction, McCoy will be contained. His Week 3 situation is reason No. 458 why the “Always start your studs” theory is an incredibly dumb supposition.
Fearless Forecast: 16 carries, 42 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 27 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.4 fantasy points
Jarvis Landry, Mia, WR (50 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $23)
Matchup: at NYJ
When Julian Edelman saw Landry’s stat line from Week 2, tears of joy probably streamed down his checks. The Dolphins’ absurd 13-78-0 output was classic Edelman. Jay Cutler, who thankfully decided pants were necessary to play football, zeroed in on the slippery slot man largely due to the WR’s footwork. According to NFL’s NextGenStats, no wide receiver averaged more separation yards per route in Week 2 (4.2). Nickel and dime-ing the competition is Landry’s forte. At first glance, his matchup against the New York Kamikazes is libido-driving. Through two games, the Jets, as expected, have met every spectacular measure of futility. Body slammed via air and ground, they’re essentially a bye week for any opponent. Still, Landry isn’t a must start. Unless Josh McCown brings the Midas Touch, game flow could limit chances for the wide receiver. Additionally, slot corner Buster Skrine has played admirably giving up just under a 50.0 passer rating to his assignments thus far. Gut says DeVante Parker and Jay Ajayi are the standout achievers in nautical aqua this week. Consider Landry a WR/FLEX only in PPR-heavy formats.
Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.4 fantasy points
Jeremy Maclin, Bal, WR (50 percent started; Yahoo DFS: $16)
Matchup: at Jax (In London)
A Kingsman Maclin won’t be across the pond. Jacksonville’s defense is the real deal, a fortified unit that features one of the stingiest secondaries in the league. Corners Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, targeted 24 times in two games, have surrendered a mere 10 receptions for 139 yards and no touchdowns. Their subsequent 57.3 passer rating and 41.7 catch percentage allowed ranks behind only Baltimore and Denver coverage tandems. Last Sunday, Maclin shook off an early stinger and crossed the chalk in consecutive weeks. Still, his nine total targets and low yardage outputs (32 and 54) deflate his current WR9 standing. In other words, if not for the touchdowns, his investors would’ve strongly debated whether or not his services were required. Unless he’s the Melvin Gordon of wideouts, his 18.0 percent targets share needs to increase for him to sustain even WR2 value. In a much tougher matchup compared to Cincinnati and Cleveland, Maclin might as well crawl to the nearest pub.
Fearless Forecast: 3 receptions, 31 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 4.6 fantasy points
BONUS WEEK 3 LAMES
#TEAMHUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Lames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?
— Ryan Del Rio (@pestova24) September 20, 2017
Reader Week 2 Results: 1-6 (Season: 5-9)
My Week 2 Results: 7-3 (Season: 15-5) (W: Kirk Cousins, A.J. Green, DeMarco Murray, Isaiah Crowell, T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper, Jordan Reed; L: Todd Gurley, Alshon Jeffery, Pittsburgh)
Want to bull rush Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise. Also check out his TV show, “The Fantasy Football Hour,” now available in 75 million households on Fox Sports Regional networks and his new podcast, “The Fantasy Spin.”