Yahoo Movies Wednesday briefing: The (un)intended consequences of voter ID
Good morning. It’s a simple enough proposition: ask people to show photo ID if they want to vote. The government says that a new law coming into effect next year will ensure the integrity of elections, and reinforce public trust in British democracy. But others say the reality is a lot more complicated than that.
The strongest critics of the Elections Act argue that, far from being an attempt to secure the voting system, it is a “shameless voter-suppression bill” – and, given there was only one conviction for voter impersonation at the 2017 election, totally unnecessary in any case.
But even those who take a more neutral view see plenty to worry about. A new report from the Constitution Society sketches out a troubling picture of chaos at local councils as they attempt to adjust to the new rules – and, its author Dr John Ault says, there are “deep concerns over the deliverability of the new policy” as a result. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Ault about why this purported solution to concerns about voter fraud looks as if it may create a whole set of new problems instead.
That’s after the headlines – and scroll down to the World Cup section for everything you need on England v Wales to bask in the glory/nurse your sorrows as appropriate.
Five big stories
Health | Researchers have hailed a new era of Alzheimer’s therapies after a clinical trial confirmed that a drug slows cognitive decline in patients with early stages of the disease. Read Ian Sample’s recent feature on why lecanemab could lead to drugs that offer better and better control of Alzheimer’s.
Census | Census results revealing that England is no longer a majority-Christian country have sparked calls for an end to the church’s role in parliament and schools, while Leicester and Birmingham became the first UK cities with “minority majorities”.
Local government | A Tory-led council has admitted a series of disastrous investments caused it to run up an unprecedented deficit of nearly £500m and brought it to the brink of bankruptcy. Thurrock has appealed to the government for an emergency bailout and warned that it will have to push through a drastic programme of cuts.
Channel crossings | A man has been arrested in the UK in connection with the deaths of at least 27 people who drowned while trying to cross the Channel in a dinghy a year ago. Harem Ahmed Abwbaker, 32, is accused of being a member of an organised crime gang behind the disastrous crossing in November 2021.
China | China has sent university students home as part of an attempt to disperse protesters angry at zero-Covid policies, as the country’s top security body called for a crackdown on “hostile forces”. Authorities also announced plans to step up vaccination of older people.
In depth: ‘We will be seeing voters turned away’
Starting next year, British voters will be asked to bring photographic identification to the polls. Next May’s local elections will be the first large-scale test of how the changes will work – and Dr John Ault thinks there may be trouble ahead.
When Ault warns about potential problems with your electoral system, you should probably listen: the executive director of the non-partisan NGO Democracy Volunteers and a consultant on electoral reform, he has observed elections from Kazakhstan to Finland. “I speak to election officials all the time,” he said. “And I’m conscious there’s a gap in the discussion about the changes that are coming in the UK.”
With that in mind, he asked councils across the UK about how they were preparing for the new regime, and got responses from 70 of them. The title of his report suggests the message he heard: “An accident waiting to happen?”
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Why councils might struggle with the new regime
Leave aside, for now, fears about disproportionate impacts on younger, poorer voters. Ault’s worry is more straightforward: are councils ready for the task ahead?
The issues, according to his report: “How will polling stations change? … Will extra training be needed for staff to ensure they have knowledge of the required ID and how to identify voters based on their ID? Will extra staff be needed to deal with the introduction of voter ID?”
His survey of councils did not produce reassuring results. Forty-five percent of councils were not confident they could train staff on the new requirements in the time available, while 86% were not confident they would be ready to run the elections in general. Every single respondent said their jobs would be more difficult as a result. No information has been provided about additional funding, and over the last five years election funding has risen 40% below inflation.
“Nobody has thought about the impact on election teams in local councils,” Ault said. “Some of them are as small as two or three people. They’ve got to go from an arrangement that has bedded in over 150 years to one where they have to check ID for every voter.” They also have to collect the information needed for “voter cards” – not actually a card, but a securely printed piece of paper sent to the voter – for those who lack ID, a process which research by Plymouth council estimates will take eight minutes each time.
That might not sound like much, but when multiplied up by hundreds or thousands in an area with very limited staffing, it is a serious new workload. “Ignoring whether it’s a good, bad or indifferent plan, it is undeniably a massive administrative test,” Ault said.
How many voters will actually ask for the “voter cards”? Nobody knows. While only 2% may actually require one, Ault says: “I suspect a lot of people will hear about the voter card vaguely and the applications will be much bigger than that. It’s a big ask. Local administrators see this wave coming towards them, and they’re the ones who have to deal with it. They only have so many hours in a day to do so.”
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What that will mean for who votes and how
“It’ll probably create an awful lot of outputs we haven’t really considered,” Ault said. “Let’s say a canvasser knocks on a door, and the person says, ‘I don’t have ID’ – they might advise them to get a postal vote instead. Well, that drives people into a much less managed form of voting – at home, who knows who can affect your decision?”
Nor will the issue be a one-off: it seems unlikely that most people will keep a printed sheet of paper from one election to the next, meaning that many will simply reapply each time. “There could be millions applying for these for a general election,” Ault said.
Not all of the country will vote in next May’s elections, with Scotland, Wales and London among areas not involved. While it is plainly preferable to test the new system with a smaller number of voters, it also means that there will be no practice run in many areas before a general election. And even next year, the consequences may not just be bother for overworked officials: “The greatest concern is that voters who have every right to vote may, through no fault of their own, be excluded from voting,” Auld writes in the report. “We’ll be going to polling stations to identify challenges this is creating,” he said. “I suspect we will be seeing people turned away.”
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Other concerns about the new law
Auld’s report does not address the government’s underlying motives for the changes – but others are sceptical that they are being carried out in good faith. The Electoral Reform Society warns that younger people are less likely to hold the forms of ID listed as acceptable and points out the curious fact that 60+ London Oyster photocards are allowed, but the 18+ Student Oyster card is not. It estimates that around 2.1 million people lack the necessary ID to vote under the new law were a general election to be held now – and in all likelihood the requirements will be in place before MPs next face the public on anything more rigorous than an ITV reality show.
The House of Lords passed an amendment that would have allowed student IDs, library cards and other widely available forms of ID to be accepted – only for the change to be struck out by the government’s majority in the House of Commons. Opposition parties argue that the changes will suppress turnout among disadvantaged groups, and Cabinet Office research suggests that 42% of those without photo ID would be unlikely to apply. Naomi Smith, chief executive of campaign group Best for Britain, says that the plan is “a naked attempt by the Government to use a nonexistent problem to suppress voters more likely to vote against them”.
The government dismisses these claims, and says that “we cannot be complacent when it comes to ensuring our democracy remains secure”. But while Auld does not give a view on the underlying motives, he does say: “My instinct is that they haven’t quite squared the circle about what happens if somebody is less engaged with society and less likely to vote. There may be unintended consequences.”
What else we’ve been reading
Tech companies such as Google have long profited from monetising the data of users. Storing this personal information has had wide-ranging repercussions, particularly when it comes to law enforcement. Johana Bhuiyan looks at what data collection and surveillance means for Americans who use these platforms to find information related to accessing abortion in a country that is increasingly curtailing reproductive rights. Nimo
If for some reason you don’t adopt my method of a mad dash down the high street on 23 December, here’s an excellent Christmas gift guide with reasonably priced ideas. Feel free to get me the Taiwanese hot sauces, cheers. And if you like this, you might enjoy our great weekend newsletter, Inside Saturday. Archie
As a card-carrying member of Gen Z, it is easy to forget how much we all still rely on email. Thomas Chatterton Williams’s piece in the Atlantic (£) is a poignant deep dive into his two-decade-old inbox, filled with arguments, transient thoughts and images of his life – and what it feels like to delete 90,000 messages. Nimo
Meet Jon Ferry: 22, half a million followers on TikTok, sells bones for a living. Francesca Carington’s profile gets at the macabre dilemmas in his unusual type of work: “One line he can’t quite draw is whether he’s dealing with pieces or people.” Archie
After two summers often stuck inside their home countries, it’s no surprise that many people have been eager to travel abroad this year. But experts are warning about the negative effects of over-tourism on conservation and sustainability. Helena Smith’s dispatch from Athens shows how difficult it can be for places to strike the right balance between economic gains and sustainable tourism. Nimo
World Cup
Two goals from Marcus Rashford and one from Phil Foden led England to a 3-0 victory over Wales, securing top spot in Group B and sending their rivals home. In post-match interviews, Gareth Southgate hailed Rashford as “a different version completely to the player we had in the Euros last summer”, while Wales manager Rob Page spoke of “frustration” but added: “It is an amazing achievement for that group of players to get here in the first place.” Jacob Steinberg has the player ratings. Ben Fisher writes that Gareth Bale was, “despite all of his past grandeur, reduced to a pawn on a chessboard of kings and queens” – and Steven Morris heard from proud Welsh fans in Wrexham. Barney Ronay credits a half-time tactical switch with England’s success.
In group B, the USA beat Iran 1-0 and progressed in second place thanks to a goal from Christian Pulisic, who was taken to hospital for a precautionary scan after a pelvic injury sustained as he scored. Bryan Armen Graham writes that “the Americans enter the business end of the tournament on a tailwind of confidence”. In Group A, the Netherlands finished top after beating Qatar 2-0 and Senegal set up a last-16 match against England by beating Ecuador 2-1. Meanwhile, a senior Qatari official made the surprising admission that 400-500 migrant workers have died on World Cup-related projects.
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The front pages
“Drug success heralds ‘new era’ of progress in Alzheimer’s research” – that’s the Guardian’s front-page lead in print today. The Times has “Dementia drug slows decline”. England beating Wales is the picture splash for both those papers, and the outright lead story for some others, such as the Sun: “Rash bang wallop!”. The Daily Mirror says “Bish Rash Bosh” while its Wales edition has “You did us all proud” and makes a point of showing as much red as possible, with the Welsh players applauding fans. The Daily Express covers the census with the line “Less than half of population is Christian” while the i runs that as “UK Christians in minority for the first time since the Dark Ages”. “Ambulance staff to hold first strike for 30 years” – that’s the Telegraph while the Daily Mail’s top story is “Xmas Turkey Shortage Fear”. The Financial Times reports “Banks set for release from ring fencing rules in drive to free competitive spirit”, banking being such an inherently spirited field … The Metro’s lead is “The curse of crypto” and it says a Russian “billionaire” is the “third currency guru to die in weeks” after a helicopter crash.
Today in Focus
How far could China’s ‘zero-Covid’ protests go?
China has been rocked by an outpouring of communal anger at the government’s restrictive ‘zero-Covid’ lockdown policies. Could the protests develop into something more substantial? Tania Branigan reports
Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Mavis Best, who died this month aged 83, was an activist, a social worker and a pillar in her community. For more than five decades, Best dedicated her life to improving the lives and civil rights of Black people in Britain. Her passion and commitment often swept other people along in her fight against systemic racial violence and discrimination. Best was instrumental in overturning Britain’s infamous “Sus laws”, which gave police the power to disproportionately and often arbitrarily target young Black people. Over the next three decades Best started many initiatives to help with education and housing as well as pushing other grassroots organisations that campaigned against police brutality. While she was awarded an MBE in 2002 for her “services to the community”, Steve Rose writes, “the full extent of those services, from the late 1960s onwards, seems almost beyond measure”. “She was incredibly proud of what she had managed to achieve but was very much aware that there’s still so much to be done,” said her granddaughter Isha Dibua.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
