Here’s what the Vegas odds say about the Kansas City Chiefs-Broncos game in Denver

David Zalubowski/AP

We all know the record by now — or at least the back end of it.

The zero.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a perfect 9-0 against the Broncos in his career — a career that, by the way, began with a start in Denver.

That first start is unique for a different reason, too. It’s the last time the Broncos were favored in a game against the Chiefs.

That streak won’t change Sunday. The Chiefs are favored by 9 points as they travel to play the Broncos.

It’s the sixth consecutive matchup in this rivalry in which the Chiefs have been favored by at least a touchdown. In the previous five, the Chiefs covered three times.

It’s hard to overstate just how bad the Broncos offense has been this season, and quarterback Russell Wilson has been part of the problem, not the solution. Wilson holds onto the ball too long but no longer has the elusiveness he once did to make it effective. He has the 10th most time to throw among all quarterbacks, yet he’s been sacked the second most. Which makes that the most intriguing matchup within the matchup, given the Chiefs just faced a quarterback who is sacked frequently and got to him just one time.

For all of the putrid metrics regarding the Broncos’ passing game, their running game is actually even worse. Football Outsiders ranks the Broncos as the eighth-worst passing offense and the fifth-worst rushing attack.

The defense tells a contrasting story, and if the Broncos have any chance whatsoever at an upset, you’ll have to point to the secondary as your reasoning. The Broncos are pretty stacked on the back end. Pro Football Focus grades Denver as the best coverage team in the league.

In other words, we have an explanation for why the over/under sits at just 44 points.

Neither of these teams has fared well against the spread this season. The Broncos are 4-8, better than only Tampa Bay this season, and the Chiefs are 4-7-1.

The line: Chiefs -9

The pick: Chiefs 23, Broncos 13

Last week’s pick: Chiefs -1.5

My record against the spread this year: 7-5


1. Isiah Pacheco, over 63.5 rushing yards

The Chiefs are riding the hot hand, so let’s ride along. Pacheco has hit the over in rushing yards in four consecutive weeks. While the Broncos are the league’s third-ranked defense, they’ve actually been susceptible to the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry, which ranks bottom half of the league.

2. Travis Kelce, under 6.5 receptions

This might surprise you, but Kelce hasn’t had more than six catches in a game in five weeks, and I don’t anticipate this will be the game he breaks from the trend. The Bengals showed some success in throwing all their attention into limiting the impact Kelce could have last week, and had success with it. There should be an inclination for the Broncos to mimic that scheme, and they have the secondary to execute it.

3. Chiefs third-quarter spread (-1)

The Chiefs have played 12 games this season. Know how many times they’ve lost the third quarter?


They’ve tied three opponents and outscored the other nine. They always choose to defer if they win the toss, which gives them the opening possession of the third quarter, a strategy not all implement so universally, which makes their chances of grabbing the ball first better than 50-50.

Prop bet record last week: 1-2

Prop bet record this season: 18-16