US 2030 goals will take world closer to holding global heating below 2C

The US goal of halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared with 2005 levels, will take the world closer to the reductions scientists say are necessary to hold global heating within scientifically advised limits, analysis has shown.

The target, announced on Thursday before a virtual summit of more than 40 world leaders hosted by the US president, Joe Biden, would result in emissions reductions of between 1.5 and 2.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent a year by 2030, compared with the US’s current expected emissions, according to Climate Action Tracker.

This is the strongest contribution yet made by any major economy, in terms of the amount of carbon to be cut, towards meeting the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement of holding global heating well below 2C. However, the target is not sufficient to meet the more ambitious aspiration of the Paris agreement of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

To be in line with a 1.5C temperature rise, the US would need to cut emissions by 57-63% below 2005 levels, said Climate Action Tracker.

The EU has already agreed to cut carbon by 55% by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. The UK is targeting cuts of 68% by 2030 and 78% by 3035, but has substantially lower emissions than the US, at about 2% of global emissions compared with 15% for the US, which is the world’s second biggest emitter after China.

Niklas Höhne, of NewClimate Institute, one of the two organisations behind Climate Action Tracker, said Biden’s new target would mean the US cutting emissions even faster this decade than the EU is planning to do, when the difference in baselines is taken into account.

“With the new target for 2030 and holding the climate summit, the US has again a leading role in international climate policy,” said Höhne. “Biden proposes to reduce US emissions faster [this decade] than the EU [by 40% and 35% respectively from 2020] albeit from a very high level. Biden is striving for a CO2-free electricity sector by 2035, much earlier than Germany. And Biden proposes a gigantic investment programme for innovative infrastructure. Even more would be required to keep to the 1.5C limit, but the EU and Germany must be careful not to be overtaken by the US on climate policy.”

Climate experts around the world welcomed the US plans. Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate chief in charge of the 2015 Paris agreement, said: “[This] is a reminder of the strength of the Paris agreement. It’s a reminder that we have begun the most exciting economic transformation in human history – a permanent shift away from high carbon to net zero emissions.

“After four years of darkness, we now have an administration taking an all-of-government approach. The US is now the first country whose head of state has asked every single department, every single government agency – transport, energy, interior, security, education, health – to fulfil their responsibilities to US citizens through a climate lens. That is an extraordinary step that should be commended, and emulated by everyone.”

Mohamed Adow, director of the thinktank Power Shift Africa, said: “After four years of ignorant and cowardly climate policy from the White House under Donald Trump, it’s great to see a president who is aware of the need for action and of America’s responsibility to show leadership on this issue. The plan laid out by President Biden is hugely welcome and shows the kind of ambition we need to see from rich, polluting nations. But truth must be told. It still falls short of what is needed from the biggest historical emitter and wealthiest country to stabilise global heating to below 1.5C.”

Al Gore, the former US vice-president, said: “This is a groundbreaking step for our country [and] a strong signal to leaders around the world that as a global community, we have no more time to waste. This ambitious goal is one that we must reach. With the Biden administration’s whole-of-government approach, paired with investments in green jobs and infrastructure under consideration in Congress, we can.”

Rhoda Boateng, of the International Trade Union Confederation Africa, called for more attention to the most vulnerable groups in all countries. “Net zero is meaningless without the meaningful participation of the most vulnerable in the design and implementation of transition plans. Achieving a just transition requires all onboard: people of all colour, class, groupings – the old and young – governments, employers as well as workers. This is fair, this is just. We need a just transition for workers [and] for vulnerable and marginalised groups.”

Other countries are also using the White House summit to reveal emissions reductions’ plans for the next decade, but some of these have fallen short of hopes.

Related: US vows to cut its emissions at least 50% by 2030 ahead of climate summit

Japan was criticised for announcing a reduction of 46% in emissions by 2030, compared with 2013 levels. Sam Annesley, the executive director at Greenpeace Japan, said: “This is a paltry move compared to the large increases in reduction targets by other countries, and it has dampened the reduction efforts of the international community. In order to achieve net zero emissions in 2050 that conform to the 1.5C target under the Paris agreement, Japan needs to set a target of at least 60% reduction from 2013 levels. The current commitment is woefully inadequate.”

Helen Mountford, vice-president for climate and economics at the World Resources Institute, called on Japan to stop financing coal overseas. “Japan is currently one of the largest coal financiers in the world, providing $5.2bnannually,” she said. “Ending Japan’s finance for new coal projects would be an opportunity for Japan to stop fuelling the air pollution health crisis when the world is still grappling with the Covid-19 pandemic.”

Australia is also expected to bolster its plans, but civil society groups are expecting little substantial change. There are also new targets from Canada, and there have been hopes that South Korea could curtail its funding of fossil fuels overseas.

China’s president, Xi Jinping, is participating in the summit but is not expected to make any further major announcement on emissions. He has reiterated a target of peaking Chinese emissions by 2030, but most experts regard this as far too late from the world’s biggest emitter if temperature rises are to stay within 1.5C, and are calling on China to set a peak date of 2025.