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UK could face managed electricity blackouts under worst case energy crisis scenario

Electricity
Electricity

Managed electricity blackouts could be seen in Britain over the winter if the “worst case” energy supply crisis hits, according to scenario planning conducted by government officials.

The possibility was raised during war-gaming discussions in the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) over looming energy supply concerns.

One exercise saw officials map out what could happen in the “reasonable worst-case scenario”, which would see an extreme drop-off in UK energy supply this winter.

The possible next steps discussed, according to a report from Bloomberg News – not denied by BEIS – included organised blackouts for industry and households.

Below-average temperatures and reduced electricity imports from Norway and France could expose four days in January to such a scenario, according to the report.

Government plans for what steps would be taken to conserve gas have been made public in the past, and include deliberate and targeted blackouts in times of emergency.

‘We are not dependent on Russian energy imports’

A government source familiar with the discussions on Tuesday played down the likelihood of the scenarios becoming reality, arguing that the exercise included “imagined” worst case examples.

But the fact that officials have spent time considering the implications of such a possibility reflects a wider concern across Whitehall about the energy crisis this winter.

By the start of 2023, energy bills could be triple what they were a year earlier, according to industry forecasts, as the impact of the Covid pandemic and Ukraine war escalate.

A BEIS spokesman said the scenario was “not something we expect to happen”, adding: “We are not dependent on Russian energy imports, unlike Europe, with access to our own North Sea gas reserves, steady imports from reliable partners, the second largest LNG [liquefied natural gas] port infrastructure in Europe, and a gas supply underpinned by robust legal contracts.

“Households, businesses and industry can be confident they will get the electricity and gas they need.”

Earlier this year, the Government announced a new strategy to increase the UK’s energy independence, including investing more to build nuclear power plants in the UK.

But at the time Kwasi Kwarteng, the Business Secretary, played down the likelihood of the strategy reducing energy costs in the near future, telling Sky News in April: “The strategy is more of a medium-term three, four, five-year answer.”