MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 276.

UFC 276 takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.

Israel Adesanya (22-1 MMA, 11-1 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 6’4″ Age: 32 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 80″

• Last fight: Decision win over Robert Whittaker(Feb. 12, 2022)

• Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)

• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ UFC middleweight champion
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Professional kickboxing experience (76-5-2)
+ Professional boxing experience (5-1)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 15 knockout victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Superb feints and footwork
+ Creative striking flow
^ Variates well to the body
+ Dynamic kicking arsenal
+ Improved counter wrestling
^ Underhooks, getups, separations
+ Active and attacking guard game

Jared Cannonier (15-5 MMA, 8-5 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’11” Age: 38 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 77.5″

• Last fight: TKO win over Derek Brunson(Feb. 12, 2022)

• Camp: MMA Lab (Arizona)

• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ Regional MMA titles
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved ability to counter
^ Dangerous hooks and uppercuts
+ Hard leg kicks
^ From both stances
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Shows improved getups/scrambles
+ Works well from topside
^ Heavy ground-and-pound

Point of interest: Playing with fire

Jun 12, 2021; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Israel Adesanya moves in for a hit as Marvin Vettori defends during UFC 263 at Gila River Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The main event for UFC 276 features a middleweight title fight between two men who aren’t afraid to play with fire.

Steadily developing a hard-hitting game since stepping onto the UFC scene, [autotag]Jared Cannonier[/autotag] has made marked improvements under the care of John Crouch and the rest of the coaching staff at The MMA Lab. Now, moving much more smoothly, Cannonier can shift his stance pre or post-combination, punctuating his presence with greater effect than before.

Typically utilizing pressure to create openings for offense, Cannonier keeps hard shots on a hair-trigger, ready to come forward or counter at the drop of a dime. The 11-year pro has also seemingly picked up his stablemate’s knack for throwing the calf kick (or low leg kicks), showing the ability to attack his opponent’s lower extremities from both stances.

However, Cannonier is still not beyond being kicked or countered himself, as I’ll be curious to see how he approaches someone like [autotag]Israel Adesanya[/autotag].

Known as “The Last Stylebender,” Adesanya took to martial arts at a young age and is no stranger to dealing with power on the big stage. A cunning martial artist, Adesanya earned his moniker with a creative striking flow that helped him accrue titles in both the boxing and kickboxing arenas.

Seamlessly moving through space, Adesanya will intelligently use feints and footwork to help establish his reads and set up his shots accordingly. The reigning UFC middleweight champ keeps whipping right hands and crushing check-hooks on a hair-trigger, while offering pinpoint counter-crosses when cleverly shifting to his southpaw stance on retreat.

When feeling in stride, the 32-year-old talent will unleash a dynamic array of kicks, whether they’re powerfully thrown from the rear or sneakily delivered off of his lead. And when Adesanya smells blood in the water, he will celebrate his reach by varying his punches, using extended hands to hide the kill-shots to come.

From hand traps that parlay into elbows, to clinches that lead to knees, Adesanya shows solid answers at multiple ranges that will come in handy for this contest – particularly as time wears on. But for as talented as Adesanya is, he, too, is not beyond bested by a fighter with a better game plan and tactics.

Point of interest: Potential grappling threats

Feb 12, 2022; Houston, Texas, UNITED STATES; Jared Cannonier (red gloves) fights Derek Brunson (Blue Gloves) during UFC 271 at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Considering where the champion’s greatest strengths are on paper, I would not be shocked to see the challenger attempt some closed-quarter combat.

Spending a decent chunk of his UFC career fending off grapplers, Cannonier has proven to be absolute dynamite in small spaces. From his improved ability to defensively scramble to the slugging shots that he sneaks in mid-transition, the 38-year-old has come a long way from the light heavyweight who was prone to playing guard when taken down.

Nevertheless, Cannonier will likely need to be offensively-minded with his wrestling and clinch initiatives for this fight. But with Cannonier only attempting and scoring one official takedown since dropping down to middleweight (which came off a clinch entanglement where a compromised Derek Brunson was already falling to the floor), it’s hard to know what the challenger’s weapon of choice will be.

Cannonier showed some solid power from the clinch in his three takedown attempts at light heavyweight, but his best bet will probably be level-changing shots in the open given that Adesanya is a fighter who has steadily figured out his frame.

Parlaying his kickboxing experience into mixed martial arts, Adesanya has shown a surprising amount of clinch savvy in regards to his counter grappling, all while maintaining the proper headspace to help keep strikes chambered off the breaks. From slick elbows to intercepting knees, Adesanya will possess plenty of threats that could stifle the approaches of Cannonier.

Even when revisiting his first professional MMA bout back in 2012, Adesanya was already demonstrating a surprising amount of clinch awareness, hitting hip tosses and displaying a basic understanding of whizzers and underhook leverage.

Since that time, Adesanya has made steady improvements to his defensive grappling, smartly fighting grips and protecting his hips while seeking separations, typically while using the cage for assistance. That said, when Adesanya is grounded, there hasn’t been much progress to speak of outside the same half-guard retentions and options he’s been relying on – but it’s also been a while since we’ve seen him fight for prolonged periods off of his back.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Adesanya -410 and Cannonier +290 via Tipico Sportsbook.

Between Adesanya’s deserved hype and undeniable skill, I can’t say that I’m surprised to see this wide a spread opposite of such a dangerous challenger.

Cannonier is more technical than given credit for, as the 38-year-old, who is still young in fight miles, still shows new wrinkles to his game each time out. That said, I suspect he’ll have to make a rather large jump in skill or a complete shift in style if he means to dethrone Adesanya.

Some may be down of the current champ for his recent run of decision wins, but it’s important to remember that MMA is often a game of matchups, as I believe that we’re in for a much more fruitful affair here.

Although Cannonier can competently counter himself, it has been competent counter strikers who have historically troubled him throughout his career. And if you look even closer at the common threads of that sample size, you will also find that all of the said opposition was either consistent jabbers or fighters who could counter from the southpaw stance.

With Adesanya, you can argue that both of those attributes are present.
Adesanya can’t afford to underestimate Cannonier in clinching range, but I think that his pre-loaded kick counters and overall instincts will make him stylistic kryptonite for a fighter like Cannonier. For that reason, I’ll take Adesanya to find his range after a brief feeling-out period in the first, securing a finish off of a southpaw shift shortly after.

Prediction: Adesanya inside the distance

1

1