Time To Worry? Analysts Are Downgrading Their Albireo Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALBO) Outlook

Simply Wall St
·3 min read

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Albireo Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALBO), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from six analysts covering Albireo Pharma is for revenues of US$44m in 2022, implying a discernible 2.3% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$6.75 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$55m and losses of US$6.08 per share in 2022. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

View our latest analysis for Albireo Pharma

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

The consensus price target fell 7.3% to US$66.00, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Albireo Pharma's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Albireo Pharma at US$80.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$44.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.1% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 36% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 12% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Albireo Pharma is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Albireo Pharma's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Albireo Pharma analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

  • Up next
  • Up next
  • Up next
  • Up next

Latest Stories

  • Bank of Canada says any rate cuts would probably be gradual

    The Bank of Canada's (BoC) governing council agreed this month that interest rates would most likely only come down gradually, given the risks to the inflation outlook, minutes of the meeting published on Wednesday showed. The central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at a near 23-year high of 5% on April 10 and minutes of the discussions before the announcement showed the six-member council was split on the timing of a possible cut. "While there was a diversity of views about when conditions would likely warrant cutting the policy rate, they agreed that monetary policy easing would probably be gradual, given risks to the outlook and the slow path for returning inflation to target," said the minutes.

  • Former SAS man who helped ambush IRA terrorists has jail sentence quashed

    A former SAS serviceman who took part in a deadly ambush of IRA terrorists has had his jail sentence quashed.

  • Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to let Arizona doctors provide abortions in California

    Arizona doctors can give their patients abortions in California under a proposal announced Wednesday by Gov. Gavin Newsom to circumvent a ban on nearly all abortions in that state. It would apply only to doctors licensed in good standing in Arizona and their patients, and last only through the end of November. Arizona's 1864 law banning nearly all abortions except if the mother's life is in jeopardy takes effect June 8.

  • Recent College Grad, 23, Dead After Falling 50 Feet from California Cliff: 'Rest Easy'

    "You could not have made the world any better of a place with the time you had on Earth," a loved one wrote of Jacob Parker

  • Chinese swimming row rumbles on as Ukad joins clamour for investigation

    UK Anti-Doping has called for an independent review into events that led to 23 Chinese swimmers competing at the Tokyo Olympics despite recording positive drug tests

  • What is happening with Flamingo Land at Loch Lomond?

    A West Dunbartonshire Council meeting will discuss plans for the controversial resort.

  • Ukraine thanks US on long-awaited aid package, says it will make up for lost time

    President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine would do its best to make up for half a year lost to U.S. congressional debate as he thanked President Joe Biden and Americans for approving a major U.S. aid package for Kyiv on Wednesday. The Ukrainian leader expressed gratitude in his nightly video address after Biden signed into law the $61 billion aid package for Kyiv, concluding a political deadlock in Congress that lasted six months. Ukraine has been suffering from acute shortages of artillery shells for months with more-numerous, better-equipped Russian forces slowly advancing in the east.

  • South Carolina sheriff: Stop calling about that 'noise in the air.' It's cicadas.

    South Carolina sees annual cicadas, and this year, will see the 13-year Brood XIX in multiple counties in the state. Beware: they are loud.

  • PBS Retro is a new FAST channel playing just the classics

    PBS just launched a new FAST channel called PBS Retro. It’s available on Roku and shows stuff like Reading Rainbow and Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood.

  • Getting a good night’s rest is vital for neurodiverse children – pediatric sleep experts explain why

    Sleep habits can be improved by making shifts in both daytime and evening routines.

  • Jeffery Self & Gabrielle Ryan Spring For ‘Drop’, Christopher Landon’s Blumhouse Platinum Dunes Universal Thriller

    EXCLUSIVE: Jeffery Self (Search Party, The Horror of Dolores Roach) and Gabrielle Ryan (Power Book IV: Force, Bonding) have boarded Christopher Landon’s upcoming fast-paced thriller, Drop, from Blumhouse, Platinum Dunes and Universal Pictures. The duo join the previously announced cast including Meghann Fahy and Brandon Sklenar. Drop is written by Jillian Jacobs & Chris Roach. Michael Bay, Jason Blum, …

  • IATSE & OSHA Launch Investigations Into Accident On Amazon MGM’s ‘The Pickup’ Set

    Multiple investigations are taking place into the accident on the Atlanta set of Amazon MGM Studios‘ heist pic The Pickup over the weekend, which left several crew members injured. Both the Occupational Safety and Health Administration and the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees are currently looking into the incident, Deadline has confirmed. “IATSE is aware of an accident that …

  • Veteran DEA agent sentenced to 4 years for leaking intelligence in Miami bribery conspiracy

    A federal judge Wednesday sentenced a longtime U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agent to four years in prison for leaking DEA intelligence to defense lawyers in a $100,000 bribery scheme that prosecutors said jeopardized drug cases and the lives of confidential informants. John Costanzo Jr. was found guilty last year of bribery and honest-services wire fraud, joining a growing list of DEA agents convicted of federal crimes. Another former DEA supervisor, Manny Recio, is scheduled to be sentenced next month in the same case.

  • Caterpillar, Deere inventories in focus as machinery demand plateaus

    Equipment inventories will be in focus when Caterpillar, Deere and CNH Industrial report quarterly results in the coming weeks, as investors await clues on demand in what is expected to be a lukewarm year for the sector. Coming off of a strong 2023 where supply chain concerns and soaring demand prompted dealers to bulk up on tractors, combines and construction equipment, U.S. machinery makers are now seeing a moderation in product stocking at dealers, forcing them to tighten their inventories. "I do think inventories are going to be the most important data point ... whether it's construction equipment, mining, or agricultural, just at what level are those inventories at the retail channel?" said Oppenheimer analyst Kristen Owen.

  • For Uniform Homemade Ravioli, Grab An Ice Cube Tray

    Homemade ravioli can tend to be uninspiring as one piece will be enormous while the next one is miniscule. This hack will bring uniformity to your pasta.

  • Sal’s Mexican is a legacy in Fresno, Selma. A teen tired of picking peaches founded it

    The Mexican restaurants have roots that go seven decades deep and are connected to the Bobby Salazar’s line of taquerias.

  • BoC officials split on when to start cutting interest rates, summary shows

    OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada is offering more details today about its discussions on rate cut timing. The central bank released its summary of deliberations, which detailed the governing council's discussions during its most recent decision. The bank held its key rate steady at five per cent but members of the governing council were split on how long the central bank should wait before lowering it. The summary says some members felt that the bank should take its time before lowering rates, given

  • The New Lamborghini Urus Is the Marque’s Most Powerful SUV Ever

    The new model will replace the Urus S and Performante next month.

  • Homelessness is a complex issue in Wetaskiwin says the Ministry of Seniors

    The Alberta Government remains committed to a solution to the homelessness issue in Wetaskiwin. While there has been dissatisfaction in the community over the emergency shelter, Ministry of Seniors, Community and Social Services said that homelessness is a complex issue. Alexandru Cioban, a ministry spokesperson told Pipestone Flyer that the government will continue working hard to support those impacted or are at risk of homelessness. “We will continue to collaborate and work closely with Hope

  • US Rep. Donald Payne Jr., a Democrat from New Jersey, has died at 65 after a heart attack

    TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — U.S. Rep. Donald Payne Jr., of New Jersey, died Wednesday after a heart attack this month that left him hospitalized, officials said. He was 65. In a statement, Gov. Phil Murphy called his fellow Democrat a “steadfast champion for the people of New Jersey.” “With his signature bowtie, big heart, and tenacious spirit, Donald embodied the very best of public service," Murphy said in a statement. “As a former union worker and toll collector, he deeply understood the struggles o