Third wave of Covid ‘definitely under way’ in UK, says expert

A government scientific adviser has said a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic is “definitely under way” as the vaccine programme races to outpace the Delta variant’s spread across the UK.

It comes after Public Health England reported a 79% rise in the number of cases of the variant first identified in India in just one week. Hospital cases have almost doubled.

Experts say the sudden increase is being driven by younger age groups. The vaccination programme was opened up to people aged 18 and over on Friday and surge testing is being rolled out in parts of south London and Cumbria.

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Prof Adam Finn, who advises the government on the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), on Saturday said a third wave of infections “is definitely under way”.

“It’s going up, perhaps we can be a little bit optimistic it’s not going up any faster, but nevertheless it’s going up, so this third wave is definitely under way,” he told Radio 4’s Today programme.

“We can conclude that the race is firmly on between the vaccine programme, particularly getting older people’s second doses done, and the Delta variant third wave.”

He said the JCVI is still deciding whether children should be vaccinated, but that at the moment adults are the priority.

“Even if some decision were made to immunise children it wouldn’t be appropriate right now, either here or anywhere else in Europe, to give our doses predominantly to children because it’s adults that get sick, so vaccinating adults is clearly the priority right now,” he said.

Asked whether he felt confident that vaccinations would outpace the variant, he said: “No, I don’t feel confident, but I think there’s some grounds for optimism.”

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He told Times Radio: “The latest ONS figures continue to show a rise, but that rise has not accelerated quite as much as I’d feared over the last week. So, the race is on.”

He said administering second doses, especially to older people, as quickly as possible would be key to avoiding “a great big surge of hospitalisations and deaths”.

Dr Mike Tildesley, an epidemiologist and a member of the SPI-M modelling group, said those getting infected and going to hospital with the virus are “slightly younger, and therefore also slightly less sick” which he said is a “good sign” that those who get it will have a higher chance of recovering.

“All of these are cautiously good signs but, of course, we do need to keep an eye on this over the next couple of weeks so that we can give as much information as we can to the government prior to the 19 July reopening,” he told BBC Breakfast.

Surge testing is being rolled out in south London on Saturday in Clapham, Brixton, Stockwell, West Norwood and Vauxhall. People who live in Lambeth are being strongly encouraged to take a PCR test, even if they do not have symptoms.

In Cumbria, everyone aged 12 to 30 has also been urged to take a test, while pupils will be offered tests at school.

The government said people in these areas should also continue to use free lateral flow tests twice a week.

Giant vaccination clinics are due to be opened in London this weekend – including at the Olympic Stadium, Tottenham Hotspur FC, Chelsea FC and Charlton Athletic FC.

Meanwhile, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, is considering cancelling the 10 days of self-isolation for people who have had two vaccines if they come into contact with an infected person, according to the Times.

Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, told Times Radio it is already happening in the US.

“The Centres for Disease Control changed their guidance a while ago to say that people who had had both doses of the vaccine and about 10 to 14 days after the second dose didn’t have to self-isolate, so I think we are moving in that direction,” she said.