EXCLUSIVE: We promise that you’ll never find another one like this: AMC’s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour concert movie hit tracking this morning with a $100M-$125M opening-weekend outlook when it opens on October 13 in cinemas.
These are industry estimates and do not come from AMC.
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The Sam Wrench-directed concert film is really hot with women under 25, just a few points under Barbie ($162M opening) and north of The Little Mermaid ($118.8M four-day opening). Tracking has added other titles such as Elvis, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star Is Born and Ocean’s 8 as comps against The Eras Tour, pulling its opening weekend average down to $85M. However, sources believe those comps are outliers.
Total Awareness and Definite Interest in Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour also is through the roof.
“This movie is a unicorn,” one razor-sharp box office analyst tells Deadline about the pic’s anomaly power.
Look, we all know how tracking goes. Make no mistake: If The Eras Tour misses its mark and opens at $85M, that still would be the biggest opening ever for a concert movie. Nothing to be ashamed about.
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Last week we told you that presales for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour at the top three U.S. circuits — AMC, Regal and Cinemark — as well as Canada’s Cineplex and Mexico’s Cinepolis, have amounted to $65M. That’s an atmosphere that superhero movies reach a few days before their opening weekend, read Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($60M) and The Batman ($42M).
As we told you out of TIFF, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour received a SAG-AFTRA interim agreement so that the 12-time Grammy winner can promote the movie. Swift is on a break from her Eras Tour and won’t resume live shows until November 9 in Buenos Aires.
Concert films look to be making a comeback at the box office. The Talking Heads reunion out of TIFF for A24’s 40th anniversary of Stop Making Sense minted more than $640,000 at 165 Imax locations, making it the biggest live event ever for the large-format exhibitor. That 1984 Jonathan Demme-directed concert pic is opening in 300 Imax auditoriums this weekend, with word that many showtimes already are selling out.
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