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Steven Johnson: How TCU pulled off the most improbable playoff run in history

TCU and Sonny Dykes actually pulled it off.

The Horned Frogs officially earned their spot in the College Football Playoffs Sunday morning as TCU remained at No. 3 in the final College Football Playoff rankings.

The Horned Frogs will face Big 10 champion and No. 2 Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31. We’ll talk more about the matchup and TCU’s chances later.

Right now this moment is about recognizing how far Dykes and the program have come in just a calendar year.

TCU landing in the final four is the most improbable outcome in the format’s four-team eight-year run. Yes, more unlikely than Cincinnati breaking through last season as a Group of Five champion.

There was a clear path for the Bearcats to make it, but TCU? The Horned Frogs were picked to finish seventh in their own conference. Many pundits thought it would be a struggle for TCU to earn bow eligibility, let alone contend for a Big 12 title.

In a sport that annually produces some of the best stories, TCU’s run should be right at the top. Not just this year. Historically.

Think about it. With the CFP field expanding to 12 teams in 2024, it’s unlikely we’ll ever see another story like this.

A team picked to finish at the bottom of its league, then becoming one of the college football’s best teams?

It’s just something we don’t see especially when you recognize the adversity TCU has gone through this year.

Take it back to the season opener against woeful Colorado. The Horned Frogs were struggling, the offense failed to score a single point in the first half. It would’ve been easy to think ‘Maybe all those preseason predictions were onto something.’

Just as the Horned Frogs began to get their act together, starting quarterback Chandler Morris exited with a knee injury, thrusting Max Duggan back into the starting spot.

Duggan had shown flashes in three years under former coach Gary Patterson, but it’s safe to say most of the fanbase was ready to move on and see what Morris could do.

He threw just three passes in about a quarter and a half of actions against the Buffaloes as TCU ran away with a solid, but less than convincing 38-13 win on the road.

TCU handled its business against overmatched Tarleton State and rival SMU, but it was the Oklahoma game that really offered the first glimpse that this could be a special season.

The Horned Frogs pounded the Sooners on both sides of the ball. Duggan played a perfect game with a quarterback rating of 97. Kendre Miller had nearly 140 yards on just 13 carries as the offense put up almost 700 yards of total offense in the 55-24 blowout.

It was a performance that made everyone readjust their expectations to what this team could be.

“That just really just opened my eyes, I was like we’ve really got something special and it’s showing this year,” Miller said.

The rest is history as TCU rolled off eight more wins in a row. Some came in dramatic fashion like comebacks against Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Some were dominating like the season finale against Iowa State or the physical beatdown the Horned Frogs delivered to Texas on the road.

Let me not forget how TCU used a ‘bazooka’ field goal to take down Baylor at the wire. Even with the overtime loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game, the Horned Frogs had clearly established themselves as one of the country’s best teams, no matter how much that might disappoint Nick Saban and Alabama truthers.

The reward of making the playoff is something the Horned Frogs will remember for the rest of their lives.

“It was about believing in the journey, believing in doing things the right way,” Dykes said. “You get rewarded by working really hard and caring and emptying the tank every Saturday. Our guys have done an unbelievable job of doing that. It’s a great lesson for them for the rest of their lives about showing up everyday and going to work.”

In typical Dykes fashion, he makes things seem so simple, so easy if it’s done right. Simplicity also plays a factor in this story.

Dykes was the simple hire for TCU athletics director Jeremiah Donati to make. A Texas native that was the son of a legendary coach and one that coached just across the interstate at SMU in Dallas.

It wasn’t splashy, especially in a cycle that saw openings at LSU, Florida, USC, Oklahoma and Notre Dame.

But sometimes simple is right and while the Horned Frogs didn’t win the battle for the headlines in the off-season, they won something much greater with the program’s first playoff appearance.

In Dykes’ mind, there’s no reason this will be the last one either.

“I think we’re a program where we feel like we belong,” Dykes said. “We hope this isn’t a one-timer. We believe that we can be a team that competes for this type of thing year in and year out.”