Steven Johnson: TCU football should have clinched a playoff spot, but has it?

Three teams improved to 12-0 during the final week of the college football regular season.

Two of them, Georgia and Michigan, certainly locked up spots in the College Football Playoffs with wins over Georgia Tech and Ohio State, respectively.

But what about TCU? The Horned Frogs capped a perfect regular season with a 62-14 blowout of Iowa State and its top-10 defense, yet opinions seems to be mixed on whether or not the Horned Frogs must beat Kansas State in next week’s Big 12 championship game to be in the national semifinals.

The Horned Frogs should be considered a lock for the CFP just like their fellow 12-0 companions. When looking at the facts, it’s clear that should be the case. But in a sport where perception drives so much of how we evaluate teams, should doesn’t always mean will.

Look at the numbers: the first being 12-0. The Horned Frogs went undefeated in a Power Five conference where they faced every member of the league. Along the way TCU picked up a win over a Kansas State team that could be ranked in the top-10 come Tuesday and another top-25 win over Texas on the road.

That doesn’t include the stretch where TCU beat four straight opponents that were ranked in the Associated Press Top 25.

“It’s hard to get through the year 12-0,” Sonny Dykes said after his team’s manhandling of Iowa State.

The win over the Wildcats is particularly important because once the dust settles there won’t be much separating Ohio State, Tennessee and Kansas State in the back end of the top 10.

As for the schedule itself, TCU actually has a higher strength of schedule over Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia and USC. That may be hard for some talking heads to accept — looking at you Paul Finebaum — but those are the metrics from ESPN itself.

What about strength of record? SOR is the probability that an average top-25 team could achieve a team’s record given the particular schedule that team has faced.

The Horned Frogs are No. 1, ahead of all the other CFP contenders. The numbers say the odds of any other teams in the conversation going 12-0 against the same schedule is incredibly low.

The Horned Frogs have beaten eight teams that are bowl eligible, it’s not a 12-win season built on cupcakes.

With TCU’s resume, it’s pretty clear the Horned Frogs should be in the playoff regardless of what happens against Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game. Yet why do so many TCU fans have anxiety?

Because it takes awhile for trauma to fade and the memory of 2014 when No. 4 TCU fell from No. 3 to No. 6 after blowing out Iowa State 55-3 in the last week of the regular season. Dykes is aware of it, but thinks it’s a new day in the sport.

“I know the history with TCU and Iowa State and big victories and it didn’t work out particularly well in 2014,” Dykes said. “I think this is different, I think college football is different, the committee is different and the Big 12 is viewed different than it was back then. It’s a gauntlet, I think people who really study the game know how good of a league it is.”

The optimistic belief has served Dykes well in his first season and there’s no reason to deviate from it now. Dykes has always believed that if the Horned Frogs keep winning, all the chatter would sort itself out.

The CFP committee’s comments on TCU have grown increasingly positive with each win and surely a 48-point win is going to turn more heads. The Horned Frogs reminded the committee and nation that it can blow the doors off the team.

“To be able to go through this league undefeated, to win the road games we did and grind through some of those tougher games, I think it shows we had a good football team,” Dykes said.

Dykes might be selling his team short, as TCU has the look of a great team with a high-flying offense that scored 40-plus on a top-10 scoring defense. TCU’s defense has morphed into more than just a competent unit, but one that’s excelling lately and only allowing 17.3 points per game in the last four.

Even the kicking game has become a weapon as Griffin Kell followed up his game-winning field goal against Baylor with a 54-yarder against the Cyclones. All three phases are coming together at the right time.

So back to the question. Should TCU’s spot in the playoff field be solidified now?

The answer is yes, but just to be safe, go win the Big 12 championship game and leave no doubt TCU.