Is it smart for Heat to include Adebayo in deal for a star? Debating, with scout feedback

Fourth in a four-part series on how the Heat can improve this summer.

I’m not sure there are many people “gathering around water coolers” to discuss sports issues — at least compared with pre-pandemic — but here’s a topic that would generate lively debate in any office in South Florida:

For what players would it be justified to include Bam Adebayo in trade discussions?

There’s no player currently considered available that would warrant Adebayo’s inclusion.

But…

If Damian Lillard should ask for a trade from Portland, or if Bradley Beal asks the Wizards to deal him, or if the Celtics retool their roster and make Jaylen Brown available, would offering Adebayo in a deal be a prudent move?

In analyzing any of these hypotheticals, it’s important not to allow Adebayo’s disappointing playoff series against Milwaukee to skew the reality that he’s only 23, still ascending, an excellent defender, one of the league’s most versatile bigs and already a very good player who made tremendous strides this past season while averaging 18.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.2 steals.

He’s also under contract for four more seasons, at $28.1 million, $30.3 million, $32.6 million and $34.8 million.

Some thoughts and some feedback from a scout, while emphasizing that these players are not available in trade talks:

LILLARD

He reportedly wants to monitor what happens with the Blazers’ coaching search before deciding his next move. His preferred candidate, Jason Kidd, removed his name from consideration. But Portland general manager Neil Olshey said the team is not trading Lillard.

Lillard was asked by The Athletic’s Trail Blazers writer Jason Quick if he “was he still whole-heartedly on board here, or was he starting to waver?”

He responded by text that “I have no comments about anything.”

Lillard was first-team All-NBA in 2018 and second team the past two seasons and remains at the top of his game, averaging 28.8 points and 7.5 assists this past season while shooting 39.1 percent on three-pointers.

He’s under contract for four more seasons, at $43.7 million, $47.2 million, $50.8 million and $54.3 million.

Miami hypothetically could offer Adebayo, Kendrick Nunn (through a sign and trade if Nunn and the Blazers have mutual interest) and a future No. 1 pick. Miami cannot trade a first-round pick before August unless OKC agrees for the Heat to unlock protections on the 2023 first-rounder due OKC, which would allow the Heat to trade first-rounders in 2025 and 2027.

Portland could ask for Duncan Robinson or Tyler Herro in such a scenario.

Such a hypothetical — and the Blazers likely would want more than Adebayo and Nunn if Lillard requested a trade — would leave the Heat with a lineup of Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Lillard and two bigs-to-be-named, among Dwayne Dedmon, Precious Achiuwa or a free agent class including Andre Drummond, Daniel Theis, Bobby Portis, defensively deficient Enes Kanter and Montrezl Harrell.

The downside: Lillard turns 31 in July. And with all of these trades, the Heat — already short a piece in the power rotation — would be left bereft of established, under-contract talent at power forward and center, and would go from an above-average defensive team to one substantially worse.

And here’s a question: Why would Lillard want to be traded to a team that is worse than his, which would be the case if Adebayo was subtracted from the Heat.

BetonLine.com has the Knicks as the favorites to land Lillard should he be made available at 250-to-1, followed by the Clippers (+275), Heat (+300), Lakers (+350), 76ers (+400) and Celtics (+450).

I asked a veteran NBA scout if he would include Adebayo in a proposal for Lillard if he were in Pat Riley’s shoes. He said his first preference would be signing Kyle Lowry with cap space and keeping Adebayo.

But if that doesn’t work out, “I probably would do it [Lillard/Adebayo from Miami’s perspective], but you would have to think about it. It’s not a no-brainer because of Lillard’s age. You would still need a big there. If you could find some serviceable five, that could be a worthwhile gamble because you’re getting the better player. Lillard does stuff nobody else can do.”

BEAL

The Heat has long expressed interest in the Wizards guard, who averaged 31.3 points (second in the league behind Steph Curry), 4.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists this past season.

Beal was noncommittal about his future after the Wizards were eliminated by Philadelphia in the first round of the playoffs.

“We’re not going to think about that, or even talk about it, right now,” Beal said. “I haven’t thought about none of that, as of yet.”

Beal is due $34.5 million next season and can opt out of his contract in 13 months. His player option for 2022-23 is $37.3 million.

An offer of Adebayo and a wing player would be competitive, but even if the Heat was willing to include Adebayo in a proposal (which is highly questionable), including Herro as well would seem too rich an offer for a player a year from potential free agency. A strong case also can be made that Adebayo shouldn’t even be offered.

And if Adebayo is hypothetically included in a deal for Beal, would the Heat become another version of the Wizards, with fill-the-boxscore Butler replacing fill-the-boxscore Russell Westbrook as Beal’s running mate?

“Butler is better than Westbrook, and Beal would have a better supporting cast in Miami,” the scout said.

It’s difficult to see Miami parting with as valuable a piece as Adebayo for a player so close to free agency.

BetOnLine.com gives the Heat the fourth-shortest odds of acquiring Beal, behind Golden State, Knicks and Boston.

But if Adebayo isn’t in a proposal, the Heat’s chances of acquiring Beal via trade would be minimal; the best package Miami could offer would be Robinson, Herro, Achiuwa and No. 1 picks in 2025 and 2027 (if the Heat and OKC unlock the 2023 pick due the Thunder).

Other teams could top that.

Would the scout include Adebayo in a Beal offer? He would strongly consider it if 1) The Heat doesn’t get Lowry and 2) if Beal assured the Heat he would commit long-term, something he might not be willing to do if he’s joining a team without his friend Adebayo.

“You need perimeter guys who can get their own shot at a high level to win,” the scout said. “Lillard and Beal would be a step up in terms of that quality which is so important in winning playoff basketball.

“Can you live with a serviceable center? I know Bam’s value on defense. To me, it’s an offensive game. The offense has the advantage in today’s game. I would rather have a roster full of offensively potent guys. If you err on the side of anything, err on the side of offense. Their current team isn’t good enough.”

A reader suggested including Adebayo in an offer for Boston guard Jaylen Brown, who averaged 24.7 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists, while shooting 39.7 percent on threes.

The view here is that to even consider moving Adebayo, it would need to be for an All-NBA player. And while Brown is very good, he’s isn’t that yet.

We’re not going to waste any time discussing deals for the Timberwolves’ Karl Anthony Towns; another pairing with Butler isn’t going to work after their less-than-positive Minnesota experience.

The Athletic, citing sources, reported on Monday that Dallas star Luka Doncic “intends to sign a supermax contract extension, but poor relationships with key members of the team have some internally concerned about his future with the franchise and if he’ll want to remain.”

If Doncic ever requested a trade, and if the Mavericks granted it, a Heat offer likely could be topped by several other teams even if Miami offered anyone on the roster.

Here’s part 1 of my 4-part series on the Heat’s options if Miami operates as a room team.

Here’s part 2 of my 4-part series on the Heat’s options if Miami operates as an over-the-cap team.

Here’s part 3 of my 4-part series exploring more than a dozen potential trade possibilities.

Here’s my Monday Miami Dolphins piece with lots of notes.

Here’s my Monday Miami Hurricanes piece (with David Wilson) with intel on each of the 12 Class of 2022 official visitors this past weekend.