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Sizing up Dolphins’ playoff, division chances and the key permutations. And player notes

Even with Sunday’s loss to the 49ers, the Dolphins (8-4) remain in pretty good position to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 season.

The question is whether they’ll need to get to 10 wins or 11 wins to do it.

According to the New York Times’ playoff predictor, the Dolphins — in the wake of Sunday’s loss to the 49ers — have an 81 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 17 percent chance to win the AFC East. Fivethirtyeight.com puts those Dolphins odds at 87 and 19 percent, respectively.

With 11 wins, the Dolphins are essentially certain to make it.

With 10 wins, the Dolphins still have a decent chance to make it because seven AFC teams make the playoffs and only seven in the AFC have winning records.

The Dolphins currently stand as the sixth seed, behind No. 5 seed Cincinnati (also 8-4 but with a head-to-head win against Miami) and one game ahead of the No. 7 Jets (7-5).

And keep in mind that the Jets have three tough road games left in a schedule that includes games at Buffalo, home against Detroit and Jacksonville, at Seattle and at Miami in the season finale.

The Dolphins also have three road games left: Sunday at the Chargers (8:20 p.m., NBC), then at the Bills (with the date and time expected to be announced in the next two days) and Jan. 1 at the Patriots. The Dolphins have home games against Green Bay on Christmas and the Jets on Jan. 8.

New England and the Chargers are eighth and ninth in the conference, at 6-6.

So if the Dolphins go 2-3 down the stretch, would 10 wins get them in? More likely than not, but there are scenarios where it wouldn’t. The Chargers would be the biggest threat to knocking Miami out.

If the 6-6 Chargers beat the Dolphins on Sunday, they would win a tiebreaker with the Dolphins, would trail Miami by only one game in the standings and would have the easier schedule to close the season (Tennessee, at Colts, Rams and at Denver).

But if the Dolphins beat the Chargers, Miami’s chances of making the playoffs rise to 97 percent, per fivethirtyeight.com.

New England (6-6) has a lesser chance of knocking out Miami because of a schedule that’s more difficult than the Chargers’ schedule; the Patriots play at Arizona, at Las Vegas, Cincinnati, Miami and at Buffalo. The Dolphins won their first meeting with the Patriots.

Among the three teams that are 5-7, the Dolphins would win a tiebreaker with Cleveland and Pittsburgh by virtue of earlier wins against them. The Dolphins currently would own a tiebreaker with the Raiders based on superior conference record, at 6-2 compared with 4-5. But the Raiders would need to win out and Miami lose three of five for those teams to be tied.

The AFC East remains in play, but Miami realistically would need to win at Buffalo in two weeks to have any realistic chance. And if Miami loses at the Chargers and wins at Buffalo, the Dolphins still would have only a 34 percent chance to win the division, per fivethirtyeight.com

The Bills play host to the Jets and Dolphins, and also play at Chicago and at Cincinnati (on a Monday night, Jan. 2) and then play host to the Patriots in their finale.

So the Dolphins, at 8-4, are looking good to make the playoffs. But a 2-3 close, a loss to the Chargers and strong finishes by the Jets and Chargers could leave Miami at risk. For now, the Chargers are the biggest threats to knocking out the Dolphins or Jets.

But even if the Dolphins lose to the Chargers and Bills and then beat the Packers, Patriots and Jets, the Chargers would need to win out to jump the Dolphins in a battle for a wild card. And even in that scenario, the Dolphins very likely would make the playoffs ahead of the Jets.

POSITION NOTES

Some notes, by position, from the 49ers game:

Quarterback: The Dolphins listed Tua Tagovailoa as having an ankle injury when he left late in the 49ers game. But the injury is not serious, and he’s expected to start on Sunday against the Chargers.

Running back: Raheem Mostert, back from missing a week with a knee injury, had more carries than Jeff Wilson (7 to 1) and played more offensive snaps ( 28 to 17). Fullback Alex Ingold played 25.

Wide receiver: Tyreek Hill — who is just 9 yards from breaking Mark Clayton’s single-season Dolphins receiving yards record (1,389 yards in 1984) — also leads the NFL in that category, 102 yards ahead of No. 2 Justin Jefferson. Hill also leads the NFL with 96 receptions.

Among players with at least 50 catches, Jaylen Waddle leads the league in average yards per catch at 17.1.

Because of a leg injury that caused him to leave the game for a time, Waddle played just 24 of Miami’s 46 offensive plays, with Hill logging 39, Trent Sherfield 30 and River Cracraft 20.

Sherfield’s touchdown on a 75-yard catch was the fastest (into a game) in Dolphins history and fastest score in an NFL game since 2016.

Offensive line: Despite playing without starting tackles Terron Armstead and Greg Little, the Dolphins — according to Pro Football Focus — allowed only a 10.8 percent pressure rate, their third-lowest mark this season.

Tight end: Mike Gesicki’s first target in two games resulted in that key catch that was ruled not a catch on fourth down. Gesicki played a season-low nine snaps, compared with 27 for Durham Smythe. Tanner Conner played two.

Defensive backs: The Dolphins played 84 snaps on defense — 36 more than Miami had on offense — and three defensive back starters played all 84: cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou and safety Jevon Holland.

Eric Rowe played nearly all (80). Safety Verone McKinley III played seven and Keion Crossen played 25 as a third cornerback.

Howard’s interception was his first of the season, but he leads the league with 28 since the start of 2016.

Defensive line: Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler played 76 snaps — an awfully high number for defensive lineman. Raekwon Davis played 49, John Jenkins 26 and Justin Zimmer 13.

Wilkins’ career-high 12 tackles tied with Ndamukong Suh for the most by a Dolphins defensive lineman since at least 1994.

At inside linebacker, 74 snaps were given to Jerome Baker (who had 12 tackles), 56 to Elandon Roberts (who left with a calf injury before returning) and 30 to Duke Riley.

Here is how snaps were distributed among edge players: Jaelan Phillips (55), Bradley Chubb (48), Andre Van Ginkel (31), Melvin Ingram (21).