While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the ADMA Biologics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADMA) share price has gained 19% in the last three months. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. Truth be told the share price declined 50% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.
With the stock having lost 12% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
Because ADMA Biologics made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last three years, ADMA Biologics saw its revenue grow by 52% per year, compound. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. The share price drop of 14% per year over three years would be considered disappointing by many, so you might argue the company is getting little credit for its impressive revenue growth. It's possible that the prior share price assumed unrealistically high future growth. Before considering a purchase, investors should consider how quickly expenses are growing, relative to revenue.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for ADMA Biologics in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that ADMA Biologics shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 13% over one year. That certainly beats the loss of about 8% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with ADMA Biologics (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.