Is Selective Insurance Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SIGI) Recent Stock Performance Influenced By Its Fundamentals In Any Way?

Simply Wall St
·4 min read

Selective Insurance Group's (NASDAQ:SIGI) stock is up by a considerable 9.8% over the past month. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Selective Insurance Group's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Selective Insurance Group

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Selective Insurance Group is:

8.9% = US$225m ÷ US$2.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.09 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Selective Insurance Group's Earnings Growth And 8.9% ROE

When you first look at it, Selective Insurance Group's ROE doesn't look that attractive. Yet, a closer study shows that the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 11%. Even so, Selective Insurance Group has shown a fairly decent growth in its net income which grew at a rate of 14%. Considering the moderately low ROE, it is quite possible that there might be some other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then performed a comparison between Selective Insurance Group's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 12% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for SIGI? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Selective Insurance Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Selective Insurance Group's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 23% (implying that it retains 77% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.

Additionally, Selective Insurance Group has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 18% over the next three years. As a result, the expected drop in Selective Insurance Group's payout ratio explains the anticipated rise in the company's future ROE to 16%, over the same period.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Selective Insurance Group certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Despite its low rate of return, the fact that the company reinvests a very high portion of its profits into its business, no doubt contributed to its high earnings growth. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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