Sean Payton’s retirement gives Panthers a chance to make a move upward in NFC South

New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton is stepping down, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is contemplating retirement. While Brady hasn’t decided on his future, a shift is coming in the NFC South.

The result? The division could be wide open.

The Observer’s Panthers beat reporters discuss what these changes mean for Carolina and how the moves could affect the NFC South.

What impact will Paytons’ decision, and Brady’s potential retirement, have on the NFC South?

Alexander: The impact would be vast, assuming Brady retires.

Brady, at 44, is an MVP candidate this season, and he’s arguably the greatest quarterback and player of all-time. And the Saints have long ruled the NFC South under Payton’s guidance.

In his 16 seasons, the Saints won the division seven times, including four straight between 2017-2020. The Panthers are 13-18 overall against Payton.

Payton and Brady both have such a huge impact on their teams. And both could be gone, opening the door for other teams to emerge.

There’s also the fact that the Saints are in a world of trouble this offseason. They don’t have a franchise quarterback and are $74 million over the salary cap.

The Bucs, without Brady, would have to search for a quarterback, too.

I don’t know that a new team will take over the NFC South next year, but it’s definitely coming.

Williams: Payton departing from New Orleans marks the end of one of the most successful coaching runs in NFL history. He belongs on modern football’s Mount Rushmore alongside Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin and Andy Reid.

Payton is a proven leader and a schematic difference-maker, and his decision causes ripple effects the Saints will feel for years. In the short term, New Orleans could keep the bones of Payton’s regime in place by promoting defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to head coach and retaining offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. But without a proven quarterback or clear succession plan, the Saints’ 15-year run as perennial NFC South contenders (and often favorites) is over.

New Orleans won six NFC South titles and made the playoffs eight times under Payton. But everything changed when Drew Brees retired last off-season. Payton endured what was reported as his most challenging season ever. The Saints started four different quarterbacks due to injuries to Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. Winston tore his ACL in Week 8. Hill bounced in and out of the lineup due to multiple injuries, while third-string rookie Ian Book struggled in his lone start, a 20-3 loss to Miami in Week 16.

Payton also leaves New Orleans in salary-cap limbo. The Saints are projected to be at least $70 million over the 2022 salary cap and must rework several major contracts before potentially cutting or trading several key contributors.

From roster construction, quarterback and now head coach, major questions loom over New Orleans, which will be late to the hiring process behind the eight other head coach openings around the league.

How can the Panthers take advantage?

Williams: Timing plays a critical part in finding success in the NFL. There is no way of accurately predicting when major organizational tent poles will step away. But the best franchises stay ready for their moment.

Take Buffalo, for example. New England dominated the AFC East for 20 years, consistently beating up on the Bills, Jets and Dolphins. In 2017, the Bills hired head coach Sean McDermott, laying the foundation for an eventual succession plan to Belichick and Tom Brady.

Buffalo built slowly — even regressing from nine to six wins in McDermott’s second year — until Brady left for Tampa Bay following the 2019 season. Since then, the Bills have won back-to-back division titles and stacked three consecutive double-digit win seasons.

Are the Panthers Buffalo-ready to supplant New Orleans as the NFC South’s model of consistency? Matt Rhule’s 10-23 record over the past two seasons would suggest otherwise. Not having a clear plan at quarterback, paired with an offensive line that allowed 52 sacks (fifth-most) last season, also doesn’t bode well for Carolina. But general manager Scott Fitterer vowed to completely remake the front five. The Panthers will also be aggressive in the veteran quarterback market or could select a top-ranked QB prospect at No. 6 in the upcoming draft.

If Carolina can land Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson while fixing the offensive line, the equation then changes. Pair that with the Panthers’ second-ranked defense, then perhaps Carolina can capitalize.

Alexander: They can take advantage by staying the course and continuing to build this team the right way. Look, the Panthers won’t be able to solve all of their offensive issues this offseason.

They need a brand-new offensive line and a franchise quarterback to truly take a stronghold in the NFC South.

But there’s a belief among those in the organization that they’ll likely be able to solve only one of those issues this offseason. Acquiring a franchise quarterback via a trade is going to cost a couple of first-round draft picks.

And right now — this could change — Carolina plans to use this year’s first-round pick on an offensive lineman.

So when I say stay the course, I mean don’t make rash decisions. Don’t give away draft picks for temporary solutions or for guys who don’t have a track record of winning.

That can set a team back, as it threatens to do to Carolina this year.

The Panthers are young and have a good defense. Solving the offensive line problem first makes the most sense, especially because this draft doesn’t have a franchise-type quarterback.

If Tom Brady does retire, who is the favorite to win the NFC South?

Alexander: I’m not convinced Brady retires this year. If he does, I still think the Bucs are the best team in the NFC South from a talent standpoint.

A lot has to happen this offseason. Free agency and the draft will change a lot. But top to bottom, the Bucs have the best roster.

The Panthers remain a few years away because of their offense. And the Atlanta Falcons are in a similar situation with their defense.

While the Saints job will be attractive, they still need to figure out their quarterback situation, too. Heck, every team in the NFC South might have to figure that out.

The Bucs are best set up to win next season — but that might not last long.

Williams: Yikes. That’s a challenging question.

Consider this: During the final month of the season, I giggled each time the NFC “in the hunt” graphic popped up on television because the bottom three teams were always the Saints, Falcons and Panthers. The NFC South flirted with mediocrity all season.

I think that will continue next year. It might only take eight victories to win the NFC South without Brady in Tampa and with no Payton in New Orleans. The Falcons should regress, leaving the Panthers primed for a takeover in Year 3 of Matt Rhule.

Or Rhule will crash and burn, leaving the Panthers worse than when he found them.

I realize I walked around answering this question. Luckily for Las Vegas, I’m not an oddsmaker.