Saturday’s Kentucky Derby preps: Points on line in Holy Bull but not in ‘Baffert Stakes’

The Kentucky Derby is officially on the horizon.

Just three months remain until the 149th Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs on May 6, and Derby prep season is about to kick into high gear.

Dating back to September, prep races in the United States, Europe and Japan have helped establish an initial list of top Kentucky Derby contenders.

The American leaderboard is headlined by the Todd Pletcher-trained Forte (40 points) and the Brad Cox-trained Instant Coffee (32 points).

The European leaderboard is topped by four horses — Belbek (FR), Auguste Rodin (IRE), The Foxes (IRE) and Crypto Force (GB) — all with 10 points.

The Japanese leaderboard is paced by Derma Sotogake (JPN) with 20 points.

The 20-horse Derby field features 18 spots reserved for North American-based horses, and one spot each for a Europe-based horse and a Japan-based horse.

Two more prep races are to be run Saturday in the U.S.: The Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in Florida and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park in California.

Both races were set to use the 20-8-6-4-2 scoring method of awarding Kentucky Derby qualifying points (meaning points toward Derby qualification were to be on the line for the top five finishers in each race), but this will only apply in the Holy Bull.

More on that below.

The Withers Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack (New York) was set to be run Saturday (and with the same qualifying points format), but it’s been postponed to next Saturday due to a forecast of low temperatures and high winds.

Holy Bull Stakes

The Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull will feature a field of eight 3-year-olds and represents the first of three qualifying points races to be run at Gulfstream Park in the lead-up to this year’s Kentucky Derby.

It will also introduce fresh faces to the Derby qualification scene: None of the eight horses in the field have any Derby qualifying points.

The Holy Bull (1 1/16 miles on dirt) will be the final race at Gulfstream on Saturday, with a post time of 5:43 p.m. (EST).

Full field (trainer, jockey), odds:

▪ 1. Lord Miles (Saffie Joseph Jr., Irad Ortiz Jr.), 4-1.

▪ 2. West Coast Cowboy (Joseph Jr., Edgard Zayas), 12-1.

▪ 3. Shadow Dragon (Bill Mott, Jose Ortiz), 15-1.

▪ 4. Cyclone Mischief (Dale Romans, Tyler Gaffalione), 2-1.

▪ 5. Mr Bob (Rob Falcone Jr., Joel Rosario), 10-1.

▪ 6. Legacy Isle (Rohan Crichton, Luis Saez), 7-2.

▪ 7. Il Miracolo (Antonio Sano, Leonel Reyes), 20-1.

▪ 8. Rocket Can (Mott, Junior Alvarado), 7-2.

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. — who won the Holy Bull last year with eventual Kentucky Derby participant White Abarrio — has a pair of horses in this year’s race, headlined by Lord Miles.

Both Lord Miles and West Coast Cowboy began their careers by winning maiden special weight races in the fall at Gulfstream, but Lord Miles’ stock is significantly higher after running third in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream to start the new year.

Bill Mott is the other trainer with two horses in the field. Like Joseph, one horse is a stronger contender to win than the other.

Rocket Can finished seventh in a maiden special weight race at Saratoga (New York) in September that was won by a current top Kentucky Derby contender in Instant Coffee, but Rocket Can’s performance has improved following a move to Churchill Downs: A win and a place in the fall.

Mott has never won the Holy Bull.

Cyclone Mischief already has a win at Gulfstream to his name this year in an allowance optional claiming race in January. His first win came in a maiden special weight race at Keeneland in October. Cyclone Mischief has finished in the money in three of four career races, but failed to fire in his biggest race so far: He ran seventh in the Grade 2, Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in late November at Churchill Downs (another Derby prep race that was also won by Instant Coffee).

Mr Bob won a maiden claiming race at Keeneland in October, but wasn’t a factor (sixth) in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream on New Year’s Day. Il Miracolo began his career with three straight second-place showings at Gulfstream in maiden special weight races before finally winning one in November.

The leaves Legacy Isle, a horse with the pedigree and past performance to intrigue the public.

A son of Shackleford (the 2011 Preakness Stakes winner and fifth or better in all Triple Crown races that year), Legacy Isle has run all three of his races at Gulfstream, and crossed the finish line first in all of them. His victories in a maiden special weight race in September and an allowance optional claiming race in November stood up, but his triumph in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes didn’t.

Legacy Isle was disqualified and placed second in that race for interference in the deep stretch. Dreaming of Kona was awarded the win.

This will be Legacy Isle’s first race with Luis Saez aboard as jockey.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes

As mentioned above, the Grade 3, $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes was to award Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers Saturday.

Slight problem with that: Only four horses are in the field.

A bigger issue: They’re all trained by Bob Baffert.

As of Friday morning, Baffert was still suspended from Churchill Downs, and his horses were ineligible to earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points.

For any of these horses to be able to earn qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby, the horse must be transferred to an eligible trainer by the end of February.

So no Derby qualifying points will be on the line at Santa Anita on Saturday.

The Robert B. Lewis (1 1/16 miles on dirt) is set to go off at 4 p.m. (EST).

Full field (trainer, jockey), odds:

▪ 1. Arabian Lion (Bob Baffert, John R. Velazquez), 7-5.

▪ 2. Newgate (Baffert, Lanfranco Dettori), 8-5.

▪ 3. Worcester (Baffert, Juan J. Hernandez), 9-5.

▪ 4. Hard to Figure (Baffert, Ramon A. Vazquez), 8-1.

Arabian Lion won his first-ever start in October at Santa Anita in a maiden special weight race, but most recently there was a fifth-place finish in the Grade 2, Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos (California) in December.

Arabian Lion is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. According to Caesars Sportsbook, Arabian Lion is 15-1 to win the Kentucky Derby.

Newgate won his debut in a maiden special weight at Del Mar (California) in July, but hasn’t found the winner’s circle in four starts since. All four of those starts were in graded-stakes races, with a fifth to come in the Robert B. Lewis.

Worcester is a son of 2003 Kentucky Derby runner-up and Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, but is yet to win a race in two starts, both of which came at Santa Anita.

Hard to Figure is the only horse in the field with a past stakes win: The Capote Stakes at Los Alamitos Thoroughbred in September. But that was followed by a last-place finish in the Grade 3, Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar in November.

Jockey Ramon Vazquez, who was aboard Hard to Figure for the Capote Stakes win, is back in the saddle.

The Baffert factor

The fallout from Medina Spirit’s disqualification as 2021 Kentucky Derby winner continues.

Baffert — Medina Spirit’s trainer — is banned from starting a horse in the Derby through the 2023 edition. As was explained above, the horses he trains also can’t earn qualifying points toward the Derby.

But that doesn’t mean the horses under Baffert’s watch haven’t emerged as serious Derby contenders.

Last year, two former Baffert horses — Messier and Taiba — were transferred from Baffert to Tim Yakteen, a former assistant trainer of Baffert, and were favorites in the Derby before finishing 15th and 12th, respectively.

Early signs of this happening again have already come to the surface.

The Baffert-trained Arabian Knight won the Grade 3, Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park (Arkansas) last weekend, and has won both of his starts.

According to Caesars Sportsbook, Arabian Knight is the 6-1 favorite to win the Derby ahead of Forte at 10-1.

Several Baffert-trained horses also litter the top of the current odds board.

At the Robert B. Lewis Stakes this weekend, all four horses in the field for the Derby qualifying race are trained by Baffert. This means no qualifying points will be awarded, but the victor will likely be regarded as a probably Derby contender anyway.

A deciding moment in this year’s edition of the Baffert saga should come soon.

Late this week, Baffert’s attorneys were in U.S. District Court in Kentucky to seek an overturn of his Derby ban.

Unless that happened, Baffert had until the end of February to transfer his horses to trainers that aren’t suspended by Churchill Downs for those horses to be eligible to earn qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby.

There will be ample opportunity for those horses to earn Derby qualifying points given the number of important prep races in March and April, which dish out significant points.