Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 125 of the invasion

At least 21 people are still missing after a Russian missile hit a crowded shopping centre in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk on Monday, Ukrainian prosecutors have told the Guardian. About 18 people are believed to have been killed. Military personnel, volunteers, firefighters and police have been working non-stop to recover bodies from the rubble. Authorities estimate there were between 200 and 1000 people inside the mall that afternoon.

Zelenskiy described the attack on Kremenchuk as “one of the most defiant terrorist attacks in European history”. “A peaceful city, an ordinary shopping mall with women, children, ordinary civilians inside,” he said. “Only totally insane terrorists, who should have no place on earth, can strike missiles at such an object. And this is not an off-target missile strike, this is a calculated Russian strike – exactly at this shopping mall.”

The leaders of the G7 said Russian president Vladimir Putin’s attacks aimed at civilians were a “war crime” and condemned the “abominable attack” in Kremenchuk. “We stand united with Ukraine in mourning the innocent victims of this brutal attack. Indiscriminate attacks on innocent civilians constitute a war crime. Russian president Putin and those responsible will be held to account,” a statement read. They said they would “continue to provide financial, humanitarian as well as military support for Ukraine, for as long as it takes”.

British government minister Chris Philp said that the strike was “terrorism” and illustrated there was “no end to Putin’s barbarity”. He said that it was “part of a consistent pattern of atrocities being committed by the Russian government”.

Russia’s ministry of defence has claimed that the fire in the shopping mall in Kremenchuk was caused by “the detonation of stored ammunition for western weapons”. No evidence was offered to back up the claim.

Kherson’s mayor, Ihor Kolykhaiev, was arrested by Russian forces on Tuesday, according to an adviser to the mayor. Galina Lyashevskaya posted to Facebook that Kolykhaiev had visited a utility facility, then when leaving a car was immediately detained by armed national guards, “most likely the FSB”. Lyashevskaya said hard drives were seized from computers, safes were opened, and guards searched for documents. During this time, she wrote Kolykhaiev was kept in a separate office, and handcuffed in the presence of armed guards. After the search, Lyashevskaya said the mayor was put “on the Z bus and taken away”.

Russian shelling of a residential area in Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, killed at least five civilians on Monday, the regional governor said. A further 19 people were wounded in the attack, Oleh Synehubov said.

A Russian missile attack also killed at least eight civilians and wounded 21 in Ukraine’s eastern Lysychansk region. “Today, when the civilian people were collecting water from a water tank, the Russians aimed at the crowd,” Serhiy Haidai, Luhansk governor, said on Telegram.

During a visit to Turkmenistan, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said the more western countries send weapons to Ukraine, the longer the conflict will last.

Russian forces are being increasingly hollowed out, have degraded combat effectiveness and only achieved tactical success at Sievierodonetsk despite fielding the core elements of six different armies, according to the latest UK Ministry of Defence intelligence briefing.

The US state department has spoken by telephone to an Alabama man who was recently captured in Ukraine while voluntarily helping the country’s armed forces fight Russian invaders, according to his family. Alexander Drueke told the state department that “he is OK, receiving food and water and has shelter and bedding”, Dianna Shaw, his aunt, said late Monday.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said there can be no return to prewar ties with Russia. Scholz said that with its attack on Ukraine, Russia has broken “all the rules, all the agreements we have made with each other on countries’ cooperation” after the G7 summit. He said G7 leaders agree that it has led to long-term changes “which will mark international relations for a very, very long time. So it is clear that, in relations with Russia, there can be no way back to the time before the Russian attack on Ukraine.”

The UN security council will meet on Tuesday to discuss Russia’s targeted attacks on civilians at the request of Ukraine.

Nato will boost the number of troops on high alert by more than sevenfold to over 300,000 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said the military alliance’s forces in the Baltic states and five other frontline countries would be increased “up to brigade levels” – doubled or trebled to between 3,000 and 5,000 troops. That would amount to “the biggest overhaul of our collective defence and deterrence since the cold war,” he said.

Zelenskiy has said of the Nato summit in Madrid this week that he has spoken to secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

Turkish president Tayyip Erdoğan said he would meet US president Joe Biden at the Nato summit this week and discuss what he said was Washington’s “stalling” of Ankara’s request to purchase new F-16 fighter jets. Erdoğan also said Finland and Sweden must take Turkey’s concerns into consideration and deliver not only words but results if they wanted to be Nato members.

UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, has reportedly written to the prime minister to call for the defence budget to be lifted to 2.5% of GDP by 2028. The leaked request, first reported by Talk TV, emerged on the eve of the Nato summit in Madrid, which will discuss the renewed threat posed by Russia and the anticipated commitment of hundreds more British troops to the defence of Estonia.

Any encroachment on the Crimea peninsula by a Nato member-state could amount to a declaration of war on Russia which could lead to “World War Three,” Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev, was quoted as saying on Monday. “For us, Crimea is a part of Russia. And that means for ever. Any attempt to encroach on Crimea is a declaration of war against our country. And if this is done by a Nato member-state, this means conflict with the entire North Atlantic alliance; a World War Three. A complete catastrophe,” Medvedev told the Russian news website Argumenty i Fakty.

The US is planning to buy and send more medium- to long-range missile systems to Ukraine, including Nasams, an advanced surface-to-air missile system, according to defence officials. The US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, confirmed on Monday the US is in the process of finalising a package that includes advanced air defence capabilities.

Putin and his Brazilian counterpart, Jair Bolsonaro, discussed global food security and confirmed their intention to strengthen their strategic partnership, the Kremlin said on Monday. Putin assured Bolsonaro in a phone call that Russia would fulfil all its obligations to supply fertilisers to Brazil, the Kremlin said in a statement as reported by Reuters.