Researchers warn of another Covid spike if people mix after vaccine

Vaccinated people mistakenly believe they are “good to go” and socialise with other people despite a continuing threat of the coronavirus, the head of the government’s behavioural unit has said.

Prof David Halpern, the chair of the Behavioural Insights Team, said on Tuesday that surveys showed that those who had received a jab were preparing to meet family and friends, which could result in another spike of the virus.

“We definitely do worry that people feel that, the second they have got that vaccination, they are good to go,” he told MPs on the public administration and constitutional affairs committee.

Related: When and how will I get a Covid vaccine in the UK?

The vaccine offers the best protection 12 to 14 days after the second jab, and doctors are still unsure whether it will stop the recipient from passing on the virus.

Halpern said research had shown that people were eager to meet friends and family and some were preparing to do so soon after receiving their vaccine.

“People feel, as soon as they have got that vaccination: ‘Fantastic, I’m going to be able to go out’. You hear people on vox pops doing this.”

Sage is urging ministers to begin a public awareness campaign to stress the need to follow restrictions after receiving the jab.

Ministers have been warned by scientific advisers that the benefits of the vaccine programme could be “offset” by people becoming lax about Covid restrictions once they have had the vaccine, particularly in the early months of rollout.

In Sage minutes released on Friday, the advisers called for fresh efforts to ensure compliance with the rules by monitoring people’s behaviour and setting up a system of “rapid alerts” that would give public health authorities time to intervene if adherence to Covid guidelines slumps.

A second paper, from the Sage behavioural science group, reveals that a YouGov survey in December of adults in the UK found that while half would follow whatever rules were in place after they received a vaccine, 29% said they would follow the rules less strictly, with 11% saying they would “probably no longer follow the rules” after receiving the vaccine.

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Prof Stephen Reicher, who also sits on the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group, which feeds into Sage, said the government could do more to offer information about the risks of socialising after receiving a vaccination.

“Some people think the effect of the vaccine is absolutely immediate. Some people believe that you can’t transmit the disease – and there is a lack of clarity on that from the medical community.”

Reicher said the public had been blamed too often for breaking rules when in fact behavioural scientists had been surprised at how well the public had adhered to advice during the pandemic.

“There has been a tendency to blame the public … for the difficulties we’re having and for the rise in infections,” he told the committee.

“It’s led us to delayed action such that, by the time we have to take action, the situation is even worse and we have to do more, and we have to do it for longer.

“On the whole, the public is not a weak link in this pandemic, it actually has been a strong link – and I think a bit more confidence in the public is extremely important and might lead to some better decisions.”