More people will die in Europe this winter because of Vladimir Putin's "energy weapon" than have perished on the battlefield in his war in Ukraine, according to a new analysis.
The Economist modelled the effect of soaring electricity prices on deaths during winter and concluded that the current cost of energy will likely lead to an extra 147,000 deaths if it is a typical winter.
In a particularly harsh winter that could rise to 185,000, but even if it is a mild winter the figure would still be 79,000.
It estimated battlefield deaths in the war so far as around 60,000, up to 30,000 each for Russia and Ukraine.
The Economist's statistical model included all the EU countries along with Britain, Norway and Switzerland.
Before the war Russia supplied between 40 and 50 per cent of natural gas imported by the EU.
Residential gas and electricity prices have surged as a result.
This winter temperatures are expected not to be extreme either way, compared to recent decades, and it is also expected to be a typical flu season.
The model found that, if weather is average, a 10 per cent increase in electricity prices is linked to a rise in deaths of 0.6 per cent.
Italy would suffer most extra deaths
Results showed that Italy, which has an older population and particularly high electricity prices, would suffer the most extra deaths.
It also found that Estonia and Finland would suffer a large rate of extra deaths this winter.
Britain and France, having introduced price caps, would fare better.
And, in Austria, which imposed a very generous price cap, winter deaths were expected to go down.
The model for the effects of high energy costs did not include Ukraine.
It noted that, because of Russian attacks on infrastructure, Ukraine would suffer more extra civilian deaths than any of the countries in the model.