Potential Tropical Cyclone’s path and progress: NHC’s Friday, Sep 22 update

Article first published: Thursday, Sep. 21, 2023, 11 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Friday, Sep. 22, 2023, 2 a.m. ET

The National Hurricane Center's 2 am Friday advisory reported that the potential tropical cyclone is 360 miles southeast of Charleston South Carolina and 380 miles south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, with maximum sustained wind of 40 mph. It’s moving 3 mph to the north-northeast.

"... the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina through tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday." according to forecasters. "Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina." They also said "Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts."


A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

- Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia

- Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point

- Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

- Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

- Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware

- Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

- Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

- Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:

- Surf City to Duck North Carolina

- Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point

- Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach

- Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.


STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in North Carolina later this morning,

And spread northward into Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late today into Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Source: National Hurricane Center

This article was generated by the South Carolina Bot, artificial intelligence software that analyzes information from the National Hurricane Center and applies it to templates created by journalists in the newsroom. We are experimenting with this and other new ways of providing more useful content to our readers and subscribers. You can report errors or bugs to mcclatchybot@mcclatchy.com.