Pitts, Smith or Chase? Gamblers weigh in on which rookie will have best season in ’21

Which rookie offensive player will have the most immediate impact in 2021?

We don’t know what the Dolphins think.

But we do have a pretty good idea of what the scouting community in general thinks.

And it gibes pretty closely with what the betting community expects.

BetOnline sent out its odds for offensive rookie of the year Wednesday, and it pretty much follows the expected draft order:

Trevor Lawrence 11/4

Justin Fields 9/2

Zach Wilson 9/2

Kyle Pitts 15/2

Mac Jones 10/1

Ja’Marr Chase 12/1

Trey Lance 12/1

DeVonta Smith 14/1

Jaylen Waddle 14/1

Najee Harris 14/1

Travis Etienne 14/1

Javonte Williams 16/1

Kadarius Toney 18/1

Rashod Bateman 18/1

Terrace Marshall Jr. 18/1

Kyle Trask 25/1

Our take: Oddsmakers largely agree with the consensus: Kyle Pitts is the best nonquarterback prospect in the draft, and perhaps the best prospect — period.

Quarterbacks always have a built-in advantage when it comes to winning the league’s top awards, but the fact that BetOnline slotted the Florida tight end ahead of Jones and Lance signals an expectation for a massive season in Year 1 for Pitts.

Also, it’s interesting, but not surprising, that Chase has the second-best odds among pass-catchers to take home OPOY, while Smith and Waddle are viewed essentially the same by the bettors.

This gibes with Dane Brugler’s evaluation in his annual draft guide. He ranks Waddle slightly ahead of Smith, and explained why earlier this week to the Miami Herald:

“I think we’re splitting hairs on these top three receivers. You can make a case for any of them being the top guy. For me, I gave Waddle the slight edge over Smith due to his athletic creativity. He’s not as polished as Smith, but he understands the details of route-running, and his special athleticism makes him a unique threat before and after the catch. He’s not Tyreek Hill, but he’s in that mold.”