Philippines election result is a win for dynasty politics

It was a deal – rumoured to have been brokered at the exclusive island resort of Balesin – that set the course of the Philippines election. The children of two of the country’s most powerful families agreed to join forces: dictator’s son Ferdinand Marcos Jr would run to be president in an alliance with Sara Duterte, the tough-talking daughter of the populist incumbent, Rodrigo Duterte.

Last week, they won a thumping victory. Marcos Jr secured 31 million votes, according to an unofficial count, thought to be the biggest mandate in decades. Sara Duterte, who ran to be vice-president, also won by a huge margin.

The pair were backed up by a host of powerful political names including the former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who reportedly brokered their alliance, and the family of former president Joseph Estrada. The heavyweights grouped together to oppose the rival candidate, Leni Robredo – a reformist who wanted to pass an anti-dynasty law, and ultimately came second.

“When we look at the results in the numbers, that alliance worked,” said Prof Maria Ela L Atienza, who teaches political science at the University of the Philippines, pointing to how the candidates combined their respective support bases in the north and south of the country. “They worked as a team and they were supported by all the traditional politicians.”

Political parties are weak in the Philippines, and it is instead influential families who struggle for power, using patronage, vote-buying, intimidation and, at times, violence to keep relatives in office. The clout of families can rise and fall – and rise again in the case of the Marcoses.

Marcos Jr’s father, Ferdinand Marcos Sr, ruled for two decades, including a period of martial law, where he had absolute power, before he was ousted by a popular uprising in 1986.

Marcos Sr promised voters he would tackle the country’s dynasties, but instead merely replaced elites with cronies. He plundered up to $10bn (£8bn) and presided over rife rights abuses, where political opponents were tortured, arrested and disappeared.

Campaign alliances aside, the Marcoses, said Aries Arugay, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, do no not pair up and rule as co-equals. “The Marcoses rule by themselves.”

Marcos Jr’s’ recent announcement that he will appoint Sara Duterte to lead the Department of Education – and not defence, as was her preference – has raised eyebrows.

In a statement, Duterte, a reserve officer, brushed off any suggestion she had been sidelined. “I expect that people who want to see the new administration fail will fabricate intrigues about my loyalty,” she said.

Rodrigo Duterte, who was blocked by the constitution from seeking a second term, did not endorse Marcos Jr, who he previously called a spoiled child and weak leader. Instead, he has openly expressed frustration that his daughter Sara, who was leading opinion surveys last year, did not go for the top job.

But for all his protests at his daughter’s decision, Rodrigo Duterte himself fuelled the rise of the Marcoses, analysts say. He not only recommended a hero’s burial for Marcos Sr in 2016 – a highly controversial decision that contributed to the whitewashing of history – but once described Marcos Jr as his preferred successor were he to stand down early.

Throughout Duterte’s term, the Marcos family was building its base, with online disinformation campaigns flooding social media with false stories portraying Marcos Sr’s rule as a golden era.

The Dutertes “allowed this because the Marcoses were doing the work that the Duterte administration was too lazy to do or did not have the time to do, which is to pummel the opposition”, Arugay said. Such glorification of martial law also benefited Duterte’s authoritarian style of leadership.

“What Duterte and his administration failed to see is that it empowered the Marcoses even further in return,” he added.

The power of Philippine dynasties has only increased in the decades since the ousting of Marcos, distorting democracy and worsening inequality.

According to a 2019 study by Manila’s Ateneo School of Government, about 80% of governors belonged to “fat dynasties”, meaning clans with two or more members in power at the same time – and up from 57% in 2004. Political families also held 67% of seats in the House of Representatives, and 53% of mayoral posts.

“Without dynasty regulation called for by our constitution, and given [the] little effort to curb vote-buying, and mixed record of anti-corruption in the past six years … then it is clear to see how dynastic politicians can further concentrate power,” said Dr Ronald Mendoza, who authored the study.

The pandemic and unemployment also increases people’s vulnerability to patronage, a longstanding problem in the Philippines, said Mendoza.

Related: The return of a Marcos to power in the Philippines is a warning to the world | Nicole Curato

Local media reported that, in the days after the election, stores in some areas sold out of mobile phones, and restaurants were busier than usual, with shoppers openly saying they had received money from politicians running for congress and provincial posts.

The Commission on Elections told local media it had verified more than 100 cases of vote-buying, but did not believe such reports had affected the outcome of the vote.

Unless Marcos Jr, with a huge mandate, alters the constitution, he too will be limited to one six-year term.

Regardless, many more Marcoses are waiting in the wings. Marcos Jr’s sister Imee is currently a senator, his cousin Martin Romualdez is poised to be the next house speaker, while his son Ferdinand Alexander, known as Sandro, was voted representative of Ilocos Norte, the family stronghold, last week.

Rodrigo Duterte will leave office on 30 June but has noted with satisfaction that, alongside Sara, his two sons are also in politics: one is a congressman and another has become mayor of Davao city, the family’s base.