Should the Panthers draft Anthony Richardson? Evaluating the Florida QB after pro day

With the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers will likely select one of four quarterbacks. Bryce Young (Alabama), C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) Anthony Richardson (Florida) and Will Levis (Kentucky) all have a case to be the top pick.

Over four weeks, The Observer is breaking down the top four quarterback prospects, to analyze which of the four might be the best fit for the Panthers and new coach Frank Reich. We’ll unpack what each prospect does best, identify their ideal NFL scheme fits, and then project who they’ll become as professionals based on the shades of NFL quarterback play they already possess.

This process is based on film evaluations and conversations with scouts and evaluators around the league.

Here is our breakdown of Flordia redshirt sophomore Anthony Richardson.

What Richardson does best

Richardson is a complicated evaluation.

The 6-foot-4, 230-pound prospect ran faster and jumped higher than any quarterback in NFL Combine history. Add to that his 26 total touchdowns (17 passing, nine rushing), 3,203 total yards (654 rushing yards), and a jaw-dropping highlight reel, and it’s easy to crown Richardson as the next great quarterback prospect. But his tape is littered with inconsistencies, some of which are a byproduct of starting only 13 college games. Other concerns stem from an underwhelming Florida scheme and receiving core.

At his best, Richardson is a dual-threat quarterback with a powerful arm who is capable of making any throw or rushing for explosive gains. He’ll be an immediate NFL red zone threat thanks to his measurables. But his inconsistency between the 20s is perplexing.

Sometimes he’s a sniper. He’ll rip deep outs to the field from the opposite hash with ease. Some of his seam throws and outside-the-number vertical routes are NFL-ready. He throws those concepts with anticipation, powering his way through every throw. Finding examples of touch throws or high-arcing off-speed balls is rare. He has one pitch, and has been described as a thrower, not a passer.

However, Richardson is more of a natural quarterback than some Twitter narratives suggest. It’s clear he spends extensive time with a private quarterback coach and likely has been for years — which all these top quarterback prospects do. But he’s taking what he’s learning and directly applying it, a sign that he’s a quick study who is still learning how to take instruction and make it his own.

Richardson moves around the pocket by sliding and shifting while keeping his shoulders square and eyes up. Some of his dropbacks look like simulated drills, stiff but textbook. His feet sometimes untie from his eyes once he decides to throw.

He looks like a natural quarterback when he drops back. Richardson demonstrates mature eye discipline, capable of looking off safeties and holding hole defenders to open up receivers. He flashed a slight shoulder fake a few times to freeze defensive backs while anticipating a throw behind them. Those small nuances are advanced-level quarterback play that translates to the NFL.

His pre-snap decision-making is concerning. Some throws are inexcusably made. On several examples, he either did not see a defender or was not on the same page with his intended target. Asking him to explain those plays in detail is important for any team considering Richardson.

Most of his misses are glaring. He sprays the ball at times and can put it in harm’s way. Even on completions (which occurred 54% of the time), he doesn’t often throw YAC-friendly balls (yards after the catch). He’s precise outside the numbers. But too often misfired crossing routes and post shots.

“The tape says he’s a very inconsistent passer from an accuracy standpoint. He had real trouble from a consistency standpoint playing at the same level from game to game,” NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein said. “But the talent, the upside, is just tremendous. Just from the highlight reel plays alone, you see what the potential is. He can hit some home runs, but he strikes out a lot too... The problem is that it’s really way too much feast or famine with him right now. And not enough smooth sailing and extending drives and getting first downs with ease.”

To Zierlein’s point, the Gators’ 67 offensive plays per game ranked 100th out of 131 FBS teams.

Ideal NFL scheme fit

It’s easy to imagine Richardson running a version of the Philadelphia Eagles offense. Richardson would be just as effective (if not better) than Jalen Hurts in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Evaluators believe Richardson would thrive with the Colts under new head coach Shane Steichen, who was the Eagles’ offensive coordinator over the past two years.

Richardson should become a better downfield thrower than Hurts. Scouts rave about his powerful arm and envision him in a deep-shot-taking offense with a big-bodied outside receiver. He’d thrive at exploiting heavy boxes and single-high shells.

ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid describes Richardson’s tape as “a roller coaster of highs and lows.”

“The trickiest part about Anthony’s evaluation is that he has a ton of flaws. But the only way he’s going to work through those flaws is to play,” Reid said. “With him, you need a veteran in front of him, whether it’s for half a season or a full season. I wouldn’t just throw him in ... because I think it’d be a disaster. But the only way he’s going to work through those lows is to get experience through a trial-and-error period. But when are you ready? Or when are you comfortable, with that trial-and-error period?”

Those questions are important. But Reid and the Draft Network’s Damian Parson name Carolina has a supportive landing spot for Richardson. The Panthers have a ready-made offensive line and a collection of reliable pass catchers thanks to free agency.

“The Panthers with that staff that Frank Reich has constructed with Jim Caldwell, Josh McCown, and all those guys. That’s a staff that can really help this young man get to where he needs to be,” Parson said. “You got a really talented offensive line and a young defense. This is a situation where he doesn’t have to come in and carry the team. He can just develop into that role.”

Both Reid and Parson do not expect Richardson to be a Week 1 starter. Since 2013, six quarterbacks have been selected at No. 1. Baker Mayfield (Browns) and Jared Goff (Rams) are the only rookie quarterbacks not to start their season openers as the top pick.

Immediately playing doesn’t guarantee success. But it’s an indication that No. 1 picks are more often pro-ready than developmental investments.

Shades of which NFL QB?

Selecting Richardson outside the top 3 would be a sound decision. He has a long way to go to become a consistent NFL passer. Betting on his upside is more risky than gambling on Young’s stature. He’s a physical freak who will win as a rusher. But as a thrower, he hasn’t shown the natural consistency of Young or Stroud.

Evaluators have dubbed Richardson as a supersized Jalen Hurts. Richardson identifies himself as “Cam Jackson”, an homage to former NFL MVPs Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson, both of whom are prolific runners and passers.

And Richardson may reach those heights. But the front office that selects him is making a high-risk, high-reward bet. NFL head coaches and general managers say their No. 1 priority is to win. Though that is true, their primary goal is to not get fired. Picking Richardson while Stroud and Young are available would be a career-defining move for Reich, GM Scott Fitterer and ownership.

The No. 1 pick should be used on the most risk-averse prospect, not a best-case-scenario-proposition.