Pa. GOP Senate primary: Why Oz and McCormick race may not be decided before June

A U.S. Senate primary in Pennsylvania that has been rocked by twists and turns is still too close to call.

Though Democrats chose their nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, early Tuesday evening, while the candidate was still in the hospital recovering from a stroke, the Republican race has dragged on for a week.

By 5 p.m. Monday, less than 1,000 votes separated the GOP race between Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz and former hedge-fund CEO David McCormick. Oz has held onto his narrow lead for days, and the race is likely headed to a recount.

Dr. Oz v. Dave McCormick: Why is it taking so long to declare a winner?

Voting at the polls led to a razor-thin margin between Oz and McCormick that has been about one-tenth of a percentage point for about a week.

Tens of thousands of outstanding absentee ballots became more important in a race where every vote counts.

But that processing takes time.

Adding to the slog is Lancaster County, the state's sixth most populous county, which had a printing error on 21,000 mailed ballots. Officials there said it would take days to properly process the ballots.

The outstanding votes include absentee, military, overseas and provisional ballots.

Pennsylvania started the week with about 50,000 remaining ballots to count.

About 17,000 of those ballots were votes in the GOP primary.

Why is the Penn. GOP Senate race headed to a recount?

Oz had a 992-vote lead on McCormick by the end of Monday. That's close enough to trigger Pennsylvania's automatic recount law, which kicks in when the vote difference is 0.5% or less.

The Oz and McCormick race would be the seventh time an automatic recount was triggered in the state.

Defeated candidates have the option to waive the recount, but neither Oz or McCormick have suggested they would consider it in this tight race.

Both candidates have expressed confidence that they would win once all the votes were counted.

Pennsylvania Acting Secretary of State Leigh Chapman said she expected to know by Tuesday or Wednesday whether there would be an automatic recount in Pennsylvania.

By law, the secretary of state has to order a recount by 5 p.m. May 26 if the margin is 0.5% or less.

Why do Pennsylvania election results take so long?

Election changes signed into law in October 2019 prevent county election officials from processing ballots until the morning of Election Day.

That means election workers in the state's 67 counties cannot open envelopes or verify votes were cast by a registered voter until the day of the election.

Because they can't get a head start on the mailed and absentee ballots in one of the largest states, it can slow down the vote count dramatically.

In the 2020 presidential race, it took from Tuesday to Saturday for votes to be counted. Once President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania, he won the presidency.

How does a recount work in Pennsylvania?

Counties must report their unofficial election results to the state by the end of Wednesday. If Oz and McCormick are still within the 0.5% margin, the secretary of state must declare a recount by 5 p.m. Thursday.

If Chapman, the acting state secretary, orders the recount, June 1 is the last day it could begin, and it must be completed by June 7.

Based on the recount law and timeline in Pennsylvania, it's possible the winner of the Oz and McCormick race won't be known until June 7 or 8.

What's at stake in the race?

The winner of the Oz and McCormick race will face Fetterman on the ballot in the fall.

They are all running to replace Sen. Pat Toomey, a retiring Republican from the Lehigh Valley. Toomey is adhering to a self-imposed term limit.

The Pennsylvania race is one that could decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate.

Candy Woodall is a Congress reporter for USA TODAY. She can be reached at cwoodall@usatoday.com or on Twitter at @candynotcandace.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Pa. GOP Senate primary: Why Oz and McCormick race isn't decided yet