Our 2017 Golden Globes Movie Predictions

Kevin Polowy
·Senior Correspondent, Yahoo Entertainment
From La La Land and Moonlight
La La Land and Moonlight (Photos: Lionsgate, A24)

How much relevance do the Golden Globes carry when it comes to predicting the Super Bowl of movies, the Academy Awards? It’s hard to say.

For one, the Globes’ voting body, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is made up of “about 90” members (according to its nonspecific website), while the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences counts more than 6,000. And in the past 10 years, the film named Best Picture at the Oscars has also won a Best Picture Globe (and there are two categories, Drama and Musical or Comedy) only four times: 12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Artist, and Slumdog Millionaire. The Globes are more predictive when it comes to the acting races: Oscar’s Best Actor also won the Globe nine times in the last decade; Best Actress, eight times.

Despite their iffy reliability as an Oscar forecaster, the Globes are a closely (and widely) watched affair. And the truth is they probably do have some influence — they are just one of many events, along with the various guild awards, that help establish and build momentum toward an Oscar win.

The movies likely to capture the biggest momentum after this Sunday’s 74th Annual Golden Globes? Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight, which could split up the drama categories, and La La Land, which should dominate the Musical/Comedy races. Here are my predictions in every film category:

Best Motion Picture, Drama

Nominees:
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

This appears to be a close two-horse race between Kenneth Lonergan’s gut-punching family drama Manchester by the Sea and Barry Jenkins’s quietly potent coming-of-age indie Moonlight. The latter has more momentum right now, but the former has been haunting audiences since it premiered at Sundance in 2016. I’ll give Manchester the slight leg up.

Prediction: Manchester by the Sea
Don’t be surprised by: Moonlight

Watch our interview with the Manchester cast:


Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Nominees:
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

It’s great to see that filthy superhero flick Deadpool soak up some awards attention, but with La La Land in contention, this category is open-and-shut, dunzo, over. The Globes have rarely met a high-profile song-and-dance movie they didn’t give this award to (see: Les Mis, Sweeney Todd, Dreamgirls, Chicago, Moulin Rouge!). Also: La La Land is awesome.

Prediction: La La Land
Don’t be surprised by: N/A

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

Nominees:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Portman seems to be the early Oscar favorite for her mesmerizing portrayal of Jackie Kennedy in Pablo Larraín’s somber biopic. With the stellar Emma Stone and Annette Bening both in the comedy/musical category, for La La Land and 20th Century Women, respectively, Portman should take home her third Globe Sunday, after previous wins for Black Swan (in 2011) and Closer (2005).

Prediction: Natalie Portman
Don’t be surprised by: Amy Adams
Dark horse: Isabelle Huppert

Watch our interview with the Jackie cast:


Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

Nominees:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Affleck has been the clear-cut favorite through awards season, nabbing 23 different honors for his devastating turn as a grieving Boston handyman. And while there has recently been an uptick in attention for the sexual harassment suits brought against the actor in 2011, Affleck’s frontrunner status remains intact. Right now the best bet for an upset would be Washington, for the actor-director’s fierce reprise of his Tony-winning performance in Fences.

Prediction: Casey Affleck
Don’t be surprised by: Denzel Washington

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Nominees:
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Everyone loves a good Meryl Streep speech at the Golden Globes — she has made eight already. This year, the celebrated actress will make another when she takes the stage to collect the Cecil B. DeMille Award. As mentioned earlier, the top contenders here are Bening, who charms as a quirky single mother in 20th Century Women, and Stone, who proves the heart and soul of (and sings her butt off in) La La Land.

Prediction: Emma Stone
Don’t be surprised by: Annette Bening
Dark horse: Meryl Streep

Watch our interview with the La La Land cast:


Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Nominees:
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

It’s Ryan vs. Ryan! Emma Stone may be the heart and soul of La La Land, but Gosling is pretty great too, whether crooning the irresistible “City of Stars” or showing off his handiwork on the keys. For Reynolds, it’s a feat for any actor in a superhero movie just to get nominated, but it’s doubtful he’ll ride to victory. If anyone stands a chance of taking down the Gos, it’s Grant, who makes a big comeback as a conflicted Lothario in Jenkins and could win his first Globe since his breakout role in Four Weddings and a Funeral (1995).

Prediction: Ryan Gosling
Don’t be surprised by: Hugh Grant
Dark horse: Ryan Reynolds

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Nominees:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

It’s debatable whether Davis should be considered “supporting” for her prominent role in Fences, but so goes awards politicking. Whatever category she’s in, she’s going to be an award winner for her explosive performance as a wronged housewife; Davis owns the single best acting moment of the year. It’s too bad for Williams, who’s also awardworthy in Manchester by the Sea, even if she has far less screen time.

Prediction: Viola Davis
Don’t be surprised by: Michelle Williams

Watch our interview with the Fences cast:


Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

The two best supporting male performances of the year, in my humble opinion, didn’t even make the Globes ballot: Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea and Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals. That makes this lineup a little tougher to handicap. The consensus among pundits is Ali, who impresses as a gentle-hearted drug dealer in Moonlight. But I’ll go with the “upset” and call it for Bridges, who’s at his rugged best as an aging lawman in Hell or High Water.

Prediction: Jeff Bridges
Don’t be surprised by: Mahershala Ali
Dark horse: Dev Patel

Best Director — Motion Picture

Nominees:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

This might actually be the most intriguing and telling race of the night, and here’s why: The category is one of only two (along with Best Screenplay) to include the trifecta of early awards-season favorites Chazelle (La La Land), Jenkins (Moonlight), and Lonergan (Manchester). Then again, the HFPA could pull a shocker and give it to Gibson, who appears to have removed himself from Hollywood’s blacklist. Crazier things have happened.

Prediction: Damien Chazelle
Don’t be surprised by: Barry Jenkins
Dark horse: Mel Gibson

Best Screenplay — Motion Picture

Nominees:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water

The fact that four of the same people are nominated in Best Director and Best Screenplay speaks to what an impressive year it’s been for writer-filmmakers. This is likely another battle between Moonlight and Manchester, and I’ve got to once again give the edge to Manchester, which might be the best thing powerhouse scribe Lonergan (You Can Count on Me, Gangs of New York) has penned.

Prediction: Kenneth Lonergan
Don’t be surprised by: Barry Jenkins

Best Animated Feature Film

Nominees:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia

It’s perhaps not surprising that Disney made the two best animated movies of the year, Zootopia and Moana. Both are smart, charming, funny, feel-good megahits, and either would be the easy frontrunner most years. When forced to make a choice, most critics’ groups have gone with Zootopia. Expect the Globes to follow suit, unless they opt for a “third party” choice like Kubo and the Two Strings from animation studio Laika Entertainment.

Prediction: Zootopia
Don’t be surprised by: Moana
Dark horse: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees:
Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

Starship Troopers and Basic Instinct director Paul Verhoeven’s hot-button Elle is easily the most high-profile title on this list, which helps in making it the odds-on favorite. And the fact that Isabelle Huppert’s lead performance has been so raved about helps its cause. But it also has plenty of detractors. So I’ll lean toward Toni Erdmann, Germany’s acclaimed entry, a tender yet funny father-daughter tale.

Prediction: Toni Erdmann
Don’t be surprised by: Elle
Dark horse: Neruda

Best Original Score — Motion Picture

Nominees:
Arrival
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight

It’s hard to see La La Land not winning for its score: Composer Justin Hurwitz’s jazz-influenced work is easily the most resonant of the bunch. A distant second would be Jóhann Jóhannsson’s haunting backdrop to the slow-burn sci-fi of Arrival.

Prediction: La La Land
Dark horse: Arrival

Best Original Song — Motion Picture

Nominees:
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“Faith,” Sing
“Gold,” Gold
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

Moana’s “How Far I’ll Go” — penned by Hamilton mastermind Lin-Manuel Miranda — is an infectious, inspirational showstopper. But prepare for yet another W for La La Land in the form of Justin Hurwitz’s “City of Stars,” the film’s melancholy lead number and love ballad to Los Angeles.

Prediction: “City of Stars”
Don’t be surprised by: “How Far I’ll Go”

Watch our Golden Globes insta-predictions:


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