Our 2015 Golden Globes Nominee Predictions

Updated Dec. 10, 2014

Awards season is in full effect, with film accolades being doled out on what seems like a daily (hourly?) basis.

While we’ve heard from SAG, the AFI, National Board of Review, and a host of critics groups, the biggest awards news yet will hit around the crack of dawn on Thursday, when the Hollywood Foreign Press Association unveils their nominees for the 72nd Annual Golden Globes. (Tune into our Golden Globes livestream at 8:30 a.m. ET/ 5:30 a.m. PT Thursday for more predictions, analysis, and interviews with the nominees.)

Will Richard Linklater’s 12-years-in-the-making Boyhood continue its early season dominance? Does Rob Marshall’s song-and-dance ensemble Into the Woods automatically clean up given the HFPA’s friendliness toward the musical genre? And will Johnny Depp get a nomination for the roughly three minutes he spends on screen in those Woods? These are among the big questions as we attempt to predict this year’s major Golden Globes movie races.

Best Picture, Drama

There’s no grounding Boyhood, which should continue to grow its collection of awards for the next two-plus months right up to the Oscars. David Fincher’s critical and commercial hit Gone Girl may very well get a nod here, but I see the four remaining spots all going to biopics: The Imitation Game (WWII scientist Alan Turing), Selma (Martin Luther King), The Theory of Everything (Stephen Hawking), and Unbroken (Olympian-turned-WWII POW Louis Zamperini). Look for Foxcatcher to get left in the cold.

Our Predictions:
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken

Other Contenders:
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl

Longshots:
American Sniper
Interstellar
Nightcrawler
Whiplash

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy

Aside from Boyhood, Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Birdman has been the other Top Dog this awards season, and the film gets an easy nod here, since it was submitted as a comedy (it could’ve just as easily been in contention as a drama). Expect a nod for Disney’s mega-musical Into the Woods, despite mixed early reactions. A pair of Anderson auteurs should have their latest works represented: Wes’s Grand Budapest Hotel and Paul Thomas’s Inherent Vice. That leaves one spot open. Odds favor the Bill Murray sleeper St. Vincent, and while I’d typically vote for anything Bill Murray-related, I’m calling an upset and going with another sleeper, Jon Favreau’s tasty crowdpleaser Chef.

Our Predictions:
Birdman
Chef
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods

Other Contenders:
Big Eyes
Pride
St. Vincent

Longshots:
Annie
Begin Again

Best Director

Like their films, Richard Linklater and Alejandro González Iñárritu are shoo-ins here. Unbroken may not prove to be the Oscar juggernaut many predicted, but Angelina Jolie will probably still get recognized here for her sophomore directorial effort, especially considering the HFPA’s affinity for big-name stars. And while he has been twice nominated for Globes before, David Fincher (who won for The Social Network) could very well get edged out by the relatively unknown Ava DuVernay (Selma) and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game).

Our Predictions:
Ava DuVernay, Selma
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Other Contenders:
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Christopher Nolan, Interstellar

Longshots:
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Clint Eastwood, American Sniper

Best Actor, Drama

It’s always the most competitive race, and this year isn’t an exception. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Benedict Cumberbatch (Imitation Game), and Eddie Redmayne (Theory of Everything) seem like the surest bets, leaving the last two slots up for grabs. I’ll go with David Oyelowo (Selma) and Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler), though Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner) is a serious contender, too, and don’t count out longshots Chadwick Boseman (the dynamite Get on Up star who was curiously moved from the Musical/Comedy category, where he would’ve been a lock) and Channing Tatum (whose powerhouse performance in Foxcatcher has been overshadowed by co-star Carell).

Our Predictions:
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Other Contenders:
Ben Affleck, Gone Girl
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

Longshots:
Chadwick Boseman, Get on Up
Brad Pitt, Fury
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher

Best Actress, Drama

Frequent contenders Reese Witherspoon (Wild) and Julianne Moore (Still Alice) should already have their reaction statements prepared, and things are looking very promising for potential first-time nominees Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) and Felicity Jones (Theory of Everything). Then there’s the fifth slot: Marion Cotillard has been surging lately for the Belgian drama Two Days One Night (winning Best Actress from both the Boston and New York Online critics groups) and Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars) has popular celebrity status on her side, but never count out two-time Oscar winner Hilary Swank (The Homesman).

Our Predictions:
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Other Contenders:
Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Hilary Swank, The Homesman
Shailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

Longshots:
Anne Hathaway, Interstellar
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle or Beyond the Lights

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy

Michael Keaton will be flying high for the next couple months for his career-best performance in Birdman; you might as well hand him the Globe now. It will be an honor just to be nominated for vets Ralph Fiennes (Grand Budapest Hotel), Bill Murray (St. Vincent), and Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice) — though, as we now know, Phoenix could probably care less. Chris Rock stands a good chance to make the Top Five for a passion project he also wrote and directed, but I’m into the idea that British comic James Corden will enter the awards discussion here for his role as The Baker in Into the Woods.

Our Predictions:
James Corden, Into the Woods
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice

Other Contenders:
Chris Rock, Top Five
Mark Ruffalo, Begin Again

Longshots:
Alfred Molina, Love Is Strange
Chris Pratt, Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy

Emily Blunt, who plays Corden’s Into the Woods better half — known as The Baker’s Wife, natch — should rise here for showing off her impressive pipes, as will Keira Knightley, who also sings in an entirely different kind of musical, Begin Again. We’ll also have a pair of likely double nominees here, with directorial contender/HFPA favorite Angelina Jolie (see: The Tourist) also snagging a nom for her villainess in Maleficent, and Julianne Moore (Map to the Stars) representing in both Best Actress categories. As much as I’d love to see Kristen Wiig (who didn’t sing, but did lip-sync) get recognized for the Sundance favorite Skeleton Twins, I see the last slot going to perennial nominee Amy Adams (Big Eyes).

Our Predictions:
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Angelina Jolie, Maleficent
Keira Knightley, Begin Again
Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars

Other Contenders:
Helen Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey
Kristen Wiig, The Skeleton Twins

Longshots:
QuvenzhanéWallis, Annie

Best Supporting Actor

No actor gave a better onscreen performance this year, if you ask me, than J.K. Simmons as a manipulative, utterly terrifying jazz instructor in Whiplash. Pencil him for the win, though he’s got some hard-hitting (and hard-slapping) competition in Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), and Ethan Hawke (Boyhood). As for the last slot, well, there’s only one person the HFPA loves more than Angelina Jolie, and that’s Johnny Depp (see again: The Tourist), who could score a nom for eating up only a few minutes of screen time as The Wolf in Into the Woods. Otherwise it goes to veteran Robert Duvall from The Judge newcomer Miyavi from Unbroken.

Our Predictions:
Johnny Depp, Into the Woods
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Other Contenders:
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Miyavi, Unbroken

Best Supporting Actress

Much is often made of the fact that Meryl Streep has collected an astounding 18 Oscar nominations. Yeah, well she has 28 Golden Globe nominations! (With eight wins!) Look for that to increase to 29 for her role as The Witch in Into the Woods. The favorites here, however, are Patricia Arquette (as the tough mom in Boyhood) and Emma Stone (as the tough daughter in Birdman). Another tough mama (and former Miss Golden Globe), Laura Dern, should get a nod here for Wild, as will Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) in what might actually be the easiest race here to predict. Whew.

Our Predictions:

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Other Contenders:
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods