Final Oscars Predictions: Visual Effects – There Are 2 Billion Dollar Reasons Why ‘Avatar’ Will Win

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: March 9, 2023

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Visual Effects

CATEGORY COMMENTARY:

“Avatar: The Way of Water” is considered a runaway in this race after grossing more than $2 billion worldwide. However, pay close attention to this category.

If “Top Gun: Maverick” pulls off an (unlikely, but possible) upset, the best picture statuette could be within grasp (assuming it wins editing and sound).

Will Win: “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20^th Century Studios) – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett
Could Win: “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
Should Win: “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
Should have been here: “Good Night Oppy” (Amazon Studios) — Ivan Busquets, Abishek Nair, Marko Chulev, Steven Nichols

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: "Dune" (Warner Bros.) - Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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