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If the NCAA Tournament began today, here’s where experts think Boise State would land

The Boise State men’s basketball team fell out of first place in the Mountain West standings with a loss to New Mexico last Friday, but the Broncos have not lost favor with bracketology experts.

The Broncos (16-5, 6-2 MW), who currently share second place in the Mountain West with Nevada, even moved up in some projections despite the heartbreaking overtime loss at The Pit.

Experts project the Broncos will be somewhere between a No. 9 and No. 11 seed, avoiding the dreaded First Four game in Dayton, which have not been kind to the Broncos in years past. In 2015, the Broncos drew host Dayton and the Flyers rallied for a 56-55 win, and Boise State also lost a First Four game in 2013, to La Salle.

The success of the Mountain West in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings has also boosted the Broncos’ resume. As of Thursday, the conference had five teams ranked in the top 36: Boise State (No. 21), San Diego State (25), New Mexico (29), Nevada (34) and Utah State (36).

“Here’s why that’s significant: In the short history of the NET era, only two teams have finished in the top 35 and failed to earn an NCAA Tournament bid — NC State (33rd) and Clemson (35th), both in 2019,” wrote Brian Bennett of The Athletic. “NET is merely a sorting tool, but it’s also sorta good at predicting NCAA Tournament selection and seeding.”

Before the Aggies dropped from No. 35 to No. 36, the Mountain West was one of just three conferences (Big 12, 7; Big Ten, 5; MW, 5) that had five or more teams ranked among the top 35 of the NET rankings. Experts are currently predicting between three and five Mountain West teams will make this year’s field.

The Mountain West was highly thought of last year as well, with four teams making the tourney: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Wyoming. The league didn’t fare well, with all four losing.

Having five teams within striking distance of the top 35 gives Boise State a chance at four more Quad 1 victories before the regular season is done: at San Diego State (Feb. 3), vs. New Mexico (Feb. 22), vs. San Diego State (Feb. 28) and at Utah State (March 4). The Broncos are currently a combined 8-4 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.

Boise State’s best wins are against Nevada (No. 34), Utah State (No. 36), Texas A&M (No. 43), Colorado (No. 64) and Washington State (No. 74). The Broncos’ losses to New Mexico (No. 29) and Nevada (No. 34) could be considered “good” losses.

The only “bad” loss the Broncos have this season was their home-opening 68-66 setback to South Dakota State, which goes down as a Quad 4 loss.

If the postseason began today, here’s where experts think the Broncos would land:

Joe Lunardi, ESPN

Seed: No. 10

Opponent: No. 7 Illinois

Region: Midwest (Kansas City)

First-round location: Sacramento

Total MW bids: Three (No. 7 San Diego State, No. 9 New Mexico, No. 10 Boise State)

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports

Seed: No. 9

Opponent: No. 8 N.C. State

Region: Midwest (Kansas City)

First-round location: Birmingham

Total MW bids: Five (No. 8 New Mexico, No. 8 San Diego State, No. 9 Boise State, No. 10 Nevada, No. 11 Utah State)

Brian Bennett, The Athletic

Seed: No. 11

Opponent: No. 6 Michigan State

Region: East (New York City)

First-round location: Greensboro

Total MW bids: Three (No. 7 New Mexico, No. 8 San Diego State, No. 11 Boise State)

Andy Katz, NCAA.com correspondent

Seed: No. 9

Opponent: No. 8 N.C. State

Region: South (Louisville)

Total MW bids: Three (No. 8 New Mexico, No. 8 San Diego State, No. 9 Boise State)