The AZEK Company Inc.'s (NYSE:AZEK) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price

The AZEK Company Inc.'s (NYSE:AZEK) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 39.9x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 14x and even P/E's below 8x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

AZEK could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for AZEK

Keen to find out how analysts think AZEK's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is AZEK's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as AZEK's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 19%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 39% as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 7.2%, which paints a poor picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that AZEK is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On AZEK's P/E

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that AZEK currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for AZEK with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a P/E below 20x.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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