UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas up 4% to one-month high on output decline, cold weather

(Adds latest prices) April 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% to a one-month high on Tuesday on a decline in daily output and forecasts for more cold weather and heating demand over the next week or so than previously expected. Prices also gained support as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained on track to hit a record high for a second month in a row in April after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.1 cents, or 4.0%, to settle at $2.366 per million British thermal units, their highest since March 16. That put the front-month up for a third day in a row for the first time since early March, gaining about 18% during that time. In addition, the contract settled over its 50-day moving average, a key point of technical resistance, for the first time since mid-December. In other news, the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Berkeley, California, cannot ban gas hookups in new buildings because a U.S. federal law pre-empts the city's rule. Analysts said the California decision could be a blow to numerous state and local gas bans imposed across the country in recent years if upheld by the Supreme Court. "Functionally, however, new construction remains likely to generally favor electricity hookups due to ongoing legal uncertainty and increasing consumer preference for multi-decade assets," analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics said in a note. Freeport LNG's export plant, which shut in June 2022 after a fire, was on track to pull in about 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on Tuesday, the same amount it has pulled in over the past two weeks, according to data provider Refinitiv. That was above the 2.1 bcfd of gas Freeport LNG can turn into LNG for export. LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG. Average gas flows to all seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 14.1 bcfd so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. LNG export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 100.1 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 100.4 bcfd in January. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 1.7 bcfd to a preliminary one-month low of 98.9 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. That would be the biggest one-day output drop since late January. Energy analysts, however, noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal from April 18-25 before turning near normal from April 26-May 3. Even though the weather will remain cooler than normal into next week, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 95.8 bcfd this week to 95.5 bcfd next week due to an expected decline in gas flows to LNG plants. The demand forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. Mostly mild weather during the winter of 2022-2023 allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual. Gas stockpiles were about 19% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended April 7 and were expected to end about 23% above normal during the warmer-than-usual week ended April 14, according to federal data and analysts' estimates. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Apr 14 Apr 7 Apr 14 average (Forecast) (Actual) Apr 14 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 65 25 47 41 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,920 1,855 1,395 1,560 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 23.1% 18.9% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.29 2.28 6.70 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 13.40 13.18 31.83 40.50 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 12.49 12.68 29.22 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 136 140 154 134 129 U.S. GFS CDDs 34 31 44 42 42 U.S. GFS TDDs 170 171 198 176 171 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 100.3 100.0 100.3 95.5 89.7 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.6 6.7 6.6 9.1 8.6 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 106.9 106.8 106.9 104.6 98.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.7 2.6 U.S. Exports to Mexico 4.7 5.4 5.0 5.9 5.1 U.S. LNG Exports 13.9 14.5 13.9 12.2 7.1 U.S. Commercial 7.8 7.4 7.5 9.2 8.7 U.S. Residential 10.2 9.6 9.6 12.9 12.5 U.S. Power Plant 29.3 28.6 28.8 25.4 24.9 U.S. Industrial 21.5 21.5 21.9 22.6 22.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.4 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 75.8 74.2 74.8 77.0 76.0 Total U.S. Demand 96.6 95.8 95.5 97.8 90.8 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Apr 21 Apr 14 Apr 7 Mar 31 Mar 24 Wind 16 15 16 14 14 Solar 5 5 4 4 3 Hydro 7 7 7 7 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 38 38 38 39 37 Coal 13 14 15 16 17 Nuclear 19 19 19 19 18 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.21 1.87 Transco Z6 New York 1.73 1.35 PG&E Citygate 5.48 5.04 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.59 1.31 Chicago Citygate 2.08 1.64 Algonquin Citygate 2.10 1.50 SoCal Citygate 8.50 7.50 Waha Hub 1.50 1.16 AECO 1.81 1.49 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 36.75 28.50 PJM West 34.50 30.75 Ercot North 20.75 17.75 Mid C 121.00 115.00 Palo Verde 43.00 30.25 SP-15 40.50 32.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)