While Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (NASDAQ:MCRI) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw significant share price movement during recent months on the NASDAQGS, rising to highs of US$93.08 and falling to the lows of US$55.35. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Monarch Casino & Resort's current trading price of US$57.74 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Monarch Casino & Resort’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What's the opportunity in Monarch Casino & Resort?
The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 13.89x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 18.48x, which means if you buy Monarch Casino & Resort today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Monarch Casino & Resort should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Monarch Casino & Resort’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What does the future of Monarch Casino & Resort look like?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Monarch Casino & Resort's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 21%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? MCRI’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at MCRI? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on MCRI, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for MCRI, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Diving deeper into the forecasts for Monarch Casino & Resort mentioned earlier will help you understand how analysts view the stock going forward. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.
If you are no longer interested in Monarch Casino & Resort, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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