What if Miami Dolphins miss on draft’s top three backs? Here’s where they could turn

When the NFL Draft begins April 29, the Miami Dolphins ideally will avoid a repeat of last year’s nightmarish scenario when all of the top backs (De’Andre Swift, Clyde Edwards-Halaire, Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins) came off the board without the Dolphins landing any of them.

The equivalent this season? If Alabama’s Najee Harris, Clemson’s Travis Etienne and North Carolina’s Javonte Williams all are selected before the Dolphins grab one.

If that scenario happens, the Dolphins likely would select a running back at some point in the draft and have that player compete with Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed and former Rams backup Malcolm Brown for the starting and No. 2 jobs, with Patrick Laird and Jordan Scarlett competing for a roster spot.

Examining the draft’s top backs after Harris, Etienne and Williams:

▪ Ohio State’s Trey Sermon: He was limited to nine games and four starts for Oklahoma in 2019 because of injuries, then transferred to Ohio State, where he ran 116 times for 870 yards (7.5 average) and four touchdowns in eight games, with 12 receptions for 95 yards.

Of those 870 yard rushing, a whopping 524 came against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship game (29 for 331, an 11.4 average) and in the College Playoff game against Clemson (31 for 193, 6.2 average). But he had only one carry (for two yards) in the national title game against Alabama before being sidelined with a shoulder injury.

The 6-foot, 213-pounder is a “great-looking running back at a quick glance, but one who suffers from inconsistency in creativity and decisiveness,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein said. “The regular-season tape at Ohio State was fairly disappointing relative to the talent he showed at Oklahoma, but his monster postseason should quell some concerns. At both schools, the interior vision and decision-making was suspect and would run him into some traffic.... While Sermon’s skill level as a runner is somewhat average, his potential as a three-down backup with upside should create middle-round interest.”

▪ UNC’s Michael Carter: The elusive 5-8, 199-pounder, who impressed Dolphins coaches at the Senior Bowl, had 156 carries for 1245 yards (an 8.0 average) and nine touchdowns in 11 games last season, with 25 catches for 267 yards (10.7 average) and two touchdown receptions.

Over his four seasons at UNC, he averaged 6.6 yards on 514 career carries, with 22 rushing touchdowns and six receiving touchdowns on 82 catches (8.0 per receptions).

“Another really good player who’s probably going to go in the third round,” NFL Net’s Daniel Jeremiah said.

UNC coach Mac Brown said Carter and Williams are guaranteed to have NFL careers.

The problem is Carter isn’t the bigger back Miami needs. Malcolm Brown could fill the big back role, but he’s more of a reserve player; he made only two starts in six seasons with the Rams.

Zierlein said he sees Carter being part of a “by committee” approach at running back.

▪ Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard: Considered a potential second-round pick coming into last season, Hubbard now projects as a fifth rounder, Jeremiah said.

“Could go a little earlier or a little later,” Jeremiah added. “Tough, physical. I wrote down he’s kind of a no-nonsense guy when you watch him run. He runs with a real low pad level. I don’t think he has a tremendous amount of top-end, top-end juice, but you can use him in the screen game. Once he gets the ball in his hands he’s tough to get down. He breaks a lot of tackles. I think he’s a day 3 pick.”

Hubbard, who’s 6-0 and 207 pounds, was considered a potential second-round pick after a 2019 season in which he ran for 2094 yards on 6.4 per carry with 21 touchdowns.

But his stock dropped after he produced more modest numbers in seven games in 2020: 625 yards rushing (4.7 per carry) and five touchdowns, with eight catches for 52 yards as a receiver.

“In 2020, his production dipped as teams seemed to find ways to bottle him up,” Zierlein said. “His willingness to get upfield rather than bounce everything will be applauded, but he needs to use his vision and easy change of direction to become more creative on the second level as a pro.”

▪ UCLA’s Demetric Felton. In 2020, he had 668 rushing yards (132 carries, 5.1 average), combined with 22 catches for 159 yards (7.2 average) in six games.

The Dolphins coaching staff gave him reps at receiver in the Senior Bowl and he could be a multi-purpose weapon with the ability to play both running back or receiver.

“Another interesting player in like round 3, round 4, just as an overall offensive weapon,” NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said. “He played running back, goes to the Senior Bowl, plays receiver at practices there, and was darned near uncoverable. Just really juicy, really explosive at the top of his route. Can make people miss in space. Just a really fun player.”

Zierlein said Felton “might be targeted to make a full-time transition to the receiver position. Felton’s Senior Bowl week showed off improved route running and an ability to compete against press. His run-after-catch talent gives his draft profile a boost at receiver, but clever offensive coordinators might be well-served to maintain his versatility as a two-position player to help create more options from a personnel grouping and matchup standpoint.”

▪ Memphis’ Kenneth Gainwell: After appearing in four games as a freshman (and rushing four times for a whopping 91 yards in those games), Gainwell was stupendous as a sophomore, rushing 231 times for 1459 (6.3 average) and 13 touchdowns in 14 games, to go along with 51 receptions for 610 yards (12.0 average) and three touchdowns.

The 5-11, 191 pounder is a “one-year starter with underwhelming size but overwhelming production,” Zierlein said. “His willingness in pass protection and talent out of the backfield should help him find a home as a backup running back with third-down value.”

▪ Oklahoma’s Rhamondre Stevenson: He impressed Dolphins coaches who worked with him at the Senior Bowl after running the ball 101 times for 665 yards (6.6 average) and seven touchdowns in six games last season, to go along with 11 catches for 211 yards (11.7 average).

There’s not a lot of tread on the tires; Stevenson has 165 career averages (7.2 per carry).

Zierlein calls the 6-0, 247-pounder Stevenson a “wrecking ball of a runner who tends to be all fight and no flight between the hash marks. Stevenson’s burly, thick frame and punishing demeanor clearly takes a toll on defenses as the game rolls on,” adding he could be a “quality three-down backup for a team that values downhill, power football.”

▪ Virginia Tech’s Khalil Herbert: Another back who played for the Dolphins’ coaching staff at the Senior Bowl; the Plantation American Heritage alum ran 155 times for 1183 yards (7.6 average) and eight touchdowns in 11 games last season, to go along with 10 catches for 179 yards and one touchdown.

He spent the previous four seasons at Kansas, averaging 6.1 yards on 475 carries.

Zierlein said the 5-9, 204-pounder is “worthy of a Day 3 selection and has NFL backup talent.”

▪ Other names to keep in mind: Buffalo’s Jaret Patterson (“his production and quickness are going to make him a hot commodity,” Brooks said), Louisville’s Javien Hawkins, Kansas’ Pooka Williams Jr., UAB’s Spencer Brown, Oregon State’s Jermar Jefferson, Alabama’s Brian Robinson Jr., Arkansas’ Rakeem Boyd and Indiana’s Stevie Scott III.

Bottom line: If the Dolphins want to find a clear-cut bell-cow back in this draft, their chances drop significantly if they bypass Harris, Etienne and Williams. The odds suggest there will be another back in this draft who emerges as a quality starter -- perhaps Hubbard or Sermon -- but the likelihood decreases after the top three come off the board.

If any of the top three is available at 36, the question is whether the Dolphins are willing to risk waiting to see if any are available at 50. It’s a risk the Dolphins essentially took in the 2020 draft and a gamble that they lost.

Here’s my piece on Harris, Etienne and Williams.