Week ahead: UK Budget, global services PMIs, US non-farm jobs report

Suban Abdulla
·5 min read
Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak reacts during a media interview after arriving at the BBC in central London on November 22, 2020, to take appear on the BBC political programme The Andrew Marr Show. - Britain's debt is now at its highest level since 1961 as a share of GDP, after the government embarked on a massive spending spree to mitigate the economic effects of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and resulting lockdowns. (Photo by Tolga Akmen / AFP) (Photo by TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images)
The chancellor faces pressure from all sides not to raise taxes and cut public spending too soon, even though prime minister Boris Johnson set out a step-by-step exit out of lockdown last week. Photo: Tolga Akmen / AFP via Getty Images

All eyes will be on the UK and chancellor Rishi Sunak this week as he gears up to deliver his second Budget on 3 March.

Investors and markets will closely watch how much cash Sunak throws at the public finances to plug the hole of devastation left behind by the coronavirus pandemic and Brexit.

Meanwhile businesses will be at the edge of their seats to look out for any significant tax rises and whether they and the public will pay for the COVID support schemes.

Across the pond a host of significant releases will interest as well, most notably the Federal Reserve's Beige Book will shine a light on the economic activity in the country. The US non-farm jobs report will be out on Friday,

Elsewhere global services PMIs (purchasing managers' index) are on the slate. Figures will show how the sector — which bore the brunt of the COVID-19 crisis — is holding up as the UK and other nations map out a way out of lockdowns to kickstart economies.

The pound, dollar (GBPUSD=X) and equity markets will also be on high alert for rising bond yields, which sent the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) and European stocks into the red on Friday close.

Developments over the weekend that will interest:

UK: Budget, services and construction PMIs, Halifax house price index

People walk in Greenwich Park with the office buildings of the Canary Wharf financial district in the background  in London on November 25, 2020. - Britain's economy is set to shrink 11.3 percent this year, suffering the greatest annual slump in more than three centuries on coronavirus fallout, the government forecast Wednesday. The economy is expected to rebound 5.5 percent next year and 6.6 percent in 2022, finance minister Rishi Sunak told parliament. (Photo by Ben STANSALL / AFP) (Photo by BEN STANSALL/AFP via Getty Images)
The week kicks off on Monday with the final manufacturing PMI reading for February, this is joined by net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP via Getty Images

It is a big week for Britain, outside of the key event — the Budget, there are also a slew of economic data releases in an action packed few days.

The week kicks off on Monday with the final manufacturing PMI reading for February, this is joined by net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals.

On Wednesday, the main star of the show will be the Budget, but another important figure is also due, namely the services PMI.

The chancellor faces pressure from all sides not to raise taxes and cut public spending too soon, even though prime minister Boris Johnson set out a step-by-step exit out of lockdown last week.

Some expected announcement include, an extension of the furlough scheme and the stamp duty holiday tax, continued suspension of business rates and the temporary reduction of VAT.

But, businesses and business groups have raised worries that Sunak could increase or set out a deadline to bring up corporation tax from its current low of 19%.

Also on Wednesday, as Johnson's roadmap could see England return back to "normal" by 21 June, the latest services PMI will shine a light on the travel & tourism, hospitality and retail industries amid the pandemic and third lockdown. The last figure saw the sector rebound to 49.7 from 39.5 in January.

Key company results:

  • Reach (RCH.L) — full year (Monday)

  • Travis Perkins (TPK.L), Taylor Whimpey (TW.L) — full year (Tuesday)

  • Persimmon (PSN.L), Prudential (PRU.L) — full year (Wednesday)

  • Aviva (AV.L), William Hill (WMH.L) — full year (Thursday)

  • Premier Oil (PMO.L) — full year (Friday)

Watch: Biden urges Senate to pass COVID relief bill

US: Coronavirus relief bill, non-farm jobs report, PMIs, Fed Beige Book

President Joe Biden's $1.9trn (£1.3trn) American Rescue Plan has passed the first hurdle, the House, but it's off to go through the US Senate.

Biden needs every Democrat in the Senate to vote in favour to provide targeted COVID support to struggling families.

The closely watched non-farm jobs report will close out the week on Friday. In December last year, seven months of constant gains came to a shuttering end, and while the reading did rebound slightly in January it was not at the level analysts expected.

Analysts predict another rebound in February, with numbers expected to rise from the 49,000 in January to 111,000.

Other releases include the final Markit and ISM manufacturing PMIs on Monday and the services equivalent on Wednesday. Thursday will see the release of factory orders and the usual jobless claims number.

"The unemployment rate has still fallen quite sharply from its peaks in April of 14.7%, to 6.3% in December, however a large part of that fall has been down to a weaker participation rate which has fallen sharply to 61.4%, from 63.4% at the end of last February," chief markets analyst at CMC Markets, Michael Hewson said.

Eurozone: Region-wide manufacturing and services PMIs, unemployment figures, inflation data

Business district in Frankfurt am Main with giant Euro sign, Germany.
Services PMIs are excepcted to remain subdued across the region as the EU has yet to set out a map out of lockdown. Photo: Getty

The region has a few releases on the cards that will likely compete with wider macro movements, namely bond yield anxiety and the outcome of the $1.9trn US coronavirus stimulus package.

On Monday manufacturing PMI are due for the Eurozone, inflation on Tuesday and services PMI on Wednesday.

The week comes to a close with the double release of retail sales and unemployment figures on Thursday and factory orders for the zone's biggest economy Germany on Friday.