Mark Davis: In races that will tell us if Texas is turning blue, there’s a clear trend

Texans are not alone in paying close attention to the statewide races we will settle in six weeks. The addition of two congressional seats nudges our electoral-vote total to 40, creating a whopping difference of 80 in a presidential race, depending on whether the state falls Republican or Democrat. It is a familiar motivating mantra at GOP rallies that if Texas turns blue, it is hard to envision a Republican winning the White House.

That drives Democrats as well, fueling their refrain that demographic changes and ideological shifts are just around the corner and that the state may turn purple on the way to blue any year now. With neither of our U.S. senators on the ballot, the best indicator of the Texas political climate will be the votes counted for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Every major poll shows a current lead for Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton. But nothing is guaranteed until votes are counted, and even if they all win, margins of victory can still provide storylines for the future.

Ask Beto O’Rourke, whose narrow 2018 U.S. Senate loss to Ted Cruz sparked a presidential run. That campaign fizzled before the first 2020 primary, but his Texas base remained devoted enough to propel him without serious opposition to this year’s Democratic nomination for governor.

Abbott outperformed Cruz in his 2018 re-election bid and shows every intention of avoiding a nail-biter finish. His massive campaign war chest can be seen in a wave of TV commercials that have been airing since before the usual Labor Day ramp-up. They portray O’Rourke as a soft-borders advocate while reminding viewers of his past calls for defunding of police.

If O’Rourke has adjusted that view, he will get the chance to say so publicly Friday in the only planned gubernatorial debate, in the border town of Edinburg. His campaign pushed for more debates, but had to know Abbott would follow the frontrunner strategy familiar to both parties — avoiding a debate stage as much as possible.

With only one faceoff likely, one has to wonder why the O’Rourke team agreed to hold it less than 10 miles from the border, which will enable Abbott to assert that the crisis in plain view outside the doors of the debate hall is the fault of politicians like O’Rourke and President Joe Biden.

It has long been observed that debates do not change the polling needles much, but sharply changing narratives do. This affords Abbott another benefit: the daily attention he has received for depositing busloads of migrants in various locations professing sanctuary status. The tactic is so attractive that it has been emulated (via air travel, no less) by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who clearly feels it not only helps him win his own re-election bid this year, but also probably doesn’t hurt his presidential appeal in 2024.

If the Abbott lead seems secure, it may not reach the double-digit margin suggested for Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick by two major statewide polls this month. Democrat Mike Collier has logged some support he would like to identify as Republican, but distaste from outgoing Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley and former Lt. Gov. Bill Ratliff do not exactly constitute a mutiny, even if joined by a few allies equally unnerved by Patrick’s style of conservatism.

If Abbott has pivoted rightward since the March primary to solidify his base, he has entered the territory Patrick occupies on a daily basis. If the lieutenant governor enjoys a wider victory margin than other Republicans on the statewide ballot, that would be evidence not only that Texas remains a red state but that its GOP voter base is not necessarily moderating, as some might wish.

Attorney General Ken Paxton may not defeat Democrat Rochelle Garza by double digits, but there is little evidence that his support has grown soft. Securities fraud indictments and an FBI probe of claims by disgruntled former attorneys in his office have formed a years-long cloud that has yet to deliver a drop of damaging rain.

The best way to gauge political damage is to assess whether events have caused supporters to hit the exits. Instead, news events from the border to election security have given Paxton a stream of opportunities to make headlines that serve to remind his conservative base why it has stayed loyal.

Six weeks is not a wide window to change the complexion of these major races. But we all know what candidates say about the only poll that matters. When that one is taken Nov. 8, we will see not only whether Texas remains red, but precisely how red.