‘Long way to go’ but COVID surge is slowing in Mecklenburg, latest data show

Coronavirus trends in Mecklenburg County show sustained signs of progress nearly one month after a staggering holiday surge that repeatedly shattered records.

The average number of new cases, the positivity rate and hospitalizations are all dropping, the latest county public health data released Tuesday shows. But COVID-19 spread remains high, with current metrics still far surpassing levels observed during a July peak and a brief period of stability in mid-October.

“I’m encouraged by some of the changes — we do have a long way to go,” Dr. David Priest, an infectious diseases specialist at Novant Health, told reporters Tuesday morning.

Positivity rate

COVID-19 test positivity rate: The average percentage of tests returning a positive result dropped to 11.7% in the past week, Mecklenburg officials said. The number rose as high as 16% earlier this month.

Where it’s been: In mid-September and early-October, Mecklenburg managed to get the rate below 5%, a crucial threshold indicating the virus spread is under better control. This benchmark is often used by world health leaders to guide decisions on lifting coronavirus restrictions.

Health officials and medical experts warn the public must stay vigilant and consistently follow coronavirus safeguards — including wearing a mask and social distancing — to avoid seeing a resurgence in coronavirus spread. That’s especially critical, officials say, with the UK coronavirus variant now circulating in Mecklenburg and across the country.

“Just because the numbers are coming down does not mean we can take our foot off the gas,” Mecklenburg Public Health Director Gibbie Harris said during a press conference Tuesday afternoon. “We need to stay focused on doing those things that keep our numbers down so that we can safely reopen.”

More contagious, hard to detect: Details on new COVID strain found in Mecklenburg

Hospitalizations

Patient demand: The average number of people needing hospital-level care was 455 in the past week — compared to the highest average count, 540, on Jan. 17.

The current volume is more than double the July peak, when the average daily patient count was just under 200. It’s also about 1.5 times greater than hospitalizations the week before Christmas, when the volume was below 300.

Holiday-fueled surge: Mecklenburg’s coronavirus trends deteriorated in the aftermath of Thanksgiving and Christmas celebrations. Atrium Health and Novant Health had to enact surge plans to accommodate an influx of patients and expand bed capacity. A field hospital hasn’t been necessary like in western North Carolina, though Atrium did deploy a “state-of-the-art emergency department on wheels” to its Pineville location.

Harris has said it’s too early to know if the county reached its winter coronavirus peak, indicating the greatest strain on medical resources. Priest said Novant’s internal metrics suggest the peak occurred around Jan. 8.

Where can you get the COVID-19 vaccine near Charlotte? Here are current options.

More COVID-19 data

Case count: Mecklenburg has logged 83,157 cumulative cases since the start of the pandemic, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported Tuesday afternoon. Over the last two weeks, the county has added 918 infections for every 100,000 residents.

Death toll: County officials say 754 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications, with January accounting for nearly 25% of all fatalities.

Deaths are considered a lagging indicator in the pandemic, trailing weeks behind exposure, infections and hospitalizations. So far in January, 188 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications — compared to 91 at this point last month.

Daily caseload: On average, Mecklenburg is recording about 730 new cases each day, according to a Charlotte Observer analysis of state health data from the last two weeks. That’s almost 100 fewer case compared to the start of the month.

But the latest volume is almost double the new daily caseload in early December — and five times the volume in mid-October, when about 140 cases were reported daily.

What restrictions are in place?

Gov. Roy Cooper’s modified stay-at-home order, which includes a 10 p.m. curfew, is in effect until Friday afternoon.

Mecklenburg’s public health directive expires next Tuesday. Harris said she’ll make an announcement later this week about changes to the directive, including a possible extension.

“Right now the numbers are trending in the right direction,” Harris said. “We certainly don’t want to do anything that’s gong to reverse that.”

Like guidance from Cooper and N.C. DHHS Secretary Dr. Mandy Cohen, Harris has similarly pleaded with residents to stay home as much as possible and avoid interactions with people outside their immediate household.

Harris’ directive has prompted Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools to delay in-person learning through February. The county has also temporarily scaled back some in-person services, and parks are closed at dusk. . All recreation, senior and nature centers, along with indoor shelters, are closed, too.

No vaccine sent to small health departments in NC as Charlotte hosts big events