The latest Triangle outlook for Hurricane Ian: Possible heavy rain, river flooding

Hurricane Ian could start dumping heavy rain across central North Carolina as soon as Thursday night, swamping the Triangle with 7 inches of rain over the weekend.

But as the storm reaches Category 3 strength and moves toward Florida’s Gulf Coast, forecasters warn that its path north remains uncertain, heading anywhere from eastern Tennessee to coastal North Carolina.

“Still a pretty wide net,” said Aaron Swiggett, meteorologist with the National Weather Service on Tuesday.

Several days out, it’s too soon to say whether Ian will bring tropical force winds, but it’s certain to leave the Triangle a soggy mess by Sunday, or even Monday by the time it moves through.

“Think high-risk potential for flash flooding and maybe some river flooding,” Swiggett said.

In Raleigh, the city has already started lowering Lake Johnson to make room for storm runoff.

With flooding the greatest concern, North Carolina emergency officials urge residents in low-lying areas to make an evacuation plan ahead of time, warning against driving through standing water.

Meanwhile, the IBMA World Bluegrass festival is scheduled for downtown Raleigh on Friday and Saturday regardless of rain, officials promise.

Stormy weather forced the event indoors in 2015. Bluegrass organizers said Tuesday they are prepared to make storm-related adjustments.