What the latest batch of NCAA Tournament projections say about Kentucky basketball

A victory at Vanderbilt plus a loss at home to No. 9 Kansas last week mean Kentucky’s standing in the national college basketball landscape hasn’t changed much.

The Wildcats still aren’t ranked, and they’re still on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

And they have one fewer opportunity between now and Selection Sunday to prove they deserve a spot in March Madness.

Kentucky’s 77-68 loss to Kansas in Rupp Arena on Saturday night dropped its record to 1-6 in “Quad 1” games, which are the toughest matchups a team can play, according to the NCAA’s own metrics. A team’s record against Quad 1 opponents is also a major factor for at-large consideration on Selection Sunday, which is now less than six weeks away.

And it goes without saying that 1-6 is not a very good mark.

As of now, Kentucky is still hanging its postseason hat on a victory at Tennessee, undoubtedly one of the best road wins in all of college basketball so far this season. The Cats’ problem, for now, is they have no other wins that would do much to impress the NCAA Tournament’s selection committee. And that terrible home loss UK suffered to South Carolina is going to look bad in any bubble conversations when the bracket is decided.

The Cats’ second-best win came at home against Texas A&M, which is also considered a bubble team. UK’s third-best win would either be the one against Michigan in London or its road victory at Vanderbilt (in front of a mostly blue-and-white crowd) last week. The Wolverines are 11-10 overall with an 0-8 record in Quad 1 games. Vandy is 10-11 and 3-5 in the Southeastern Conference. Neither team is projected to make the NCAA Tournament.

Where does Kentucky stand in its quest for a tournament spot?

Monday morning updates on the bracketology websites Bracketville and BracketWAG.com have the Wildcats making the NCAA Tournament. But just barely.

Bracketville projects UK as an 11 seed and one of the final four at-large teams for the field of 68, placing the Wildcats in a “First Four” game in Dayton, a game they’d have to win just to make the round of 64. BracketWAG.com also has Kentucky as an 11 seed relegated to one of the First Four games in Dayton.

Oklahoma and West Virginia are UK’s projected opponents in those “play-in” games.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi posted an update to his bracketology projections immediately after the Kentucky-Kansas game, and he, too, had UK as one of the final four at-large teams in the tournament, which would put them in one of those First Four games.

The Wildcats received zero votes in the new Associated Press Top 25 poll, which was released Monday afternoon. UK was on a total of two ballots (out of 62 total) in last week’s AP poll. One voter had them 24th in the country last week. Another ranked them 25th.

Purdue is the unanimous No. 1 team in the latest AP poll, with Tennessee at No. 2 and Houston, Alabama and Arizona rounding out the top five. Auburn, which dropped 10 spots to No. 25 in the new rankings, is the only SEC team in the Top 25 other than Tennessee and Alabama.

Purdue and Tennessee are the only teams listed as 1 seeds by all three of the aforementioned bracketology websites. Alabama, Arizona, Houston and Kansas are also projected as 1 seeds by at least one of those sites.

As of Monday’s update, Houston, Tennessee, Purdue, Alabama and UCLA are the top five teams in the NCAA’s NET ratings, in that order.

Kentucky is No. 36 in the NET ratings.

Kentucky’s Quad 1 games

The Wildcats have five Quad 1 games remaining, though the first one won’t be played until Feb. 7, when Arkansas visits Lexington.

So, neither of this week’s games — at Mississippi on Tuesday night and home against Florida on Saturday — is likely to move the needle on UK’s tournament chances in a positive direction. (But a loss in either game would be another bad mark on the Cats’ résumé.)

Ole Miss is 1-7 in the SEC. Florida is 50th in the NET ratings and not particularly close to NCAA Tournament consideration.

Kentucky’s five remaining Quad 1 games are …

Arkansas in Rupp on Feb. 7: The Razorbacks have lost five of their past seven games and are down to No. 28 in the NET ratings. If they fall outside the top 30, this would become a Quad 2 game for UK.

At Mississippi State on Feb. 15: The Bulldogs are 1-7 in the SEC, and their NET rating has plummeted in recent weeks, from 10th nationally on Dec. 16 to No. 54 on Monday. They’d have to fall out of the top 75 to no longer qualify as a Quad 1 game for the Cats.

Tennessee in Rupp on Feb. 18: The Vols are No. 2 in the NET ratings and No. 1 in the KenPom ratings. They’ll be looking to avenge their home loss to Kentucky when they visit Lexington.

At Florida on Feb. 22: The Gators are 5-3 in league play and 50th in the NET ratings, and this should remain a Quad 1 game. Florida is not mentioned among the last eight teams left out of the NCAA Tournament by Bracketville or BracketWAG.com, and Lunardi lists the Gators as the eighth team out.

At Arkansas on March 4: Even with the Razorbacks’ recent struggles, Kentucky is likely to face a difficult road environment when it visits Fayetteville for the regular-season finale.

(Auburn also visits Lexington next month. The Tigers recently slipped in the NET ratings — they were 31st on Monday — and a return to the top 30 would qualify this is a Quad 1 game for UK.)

Sitting at 1-6 in these Quad 1 matchups, Kentucky needs to pick up some wins in the remaining chances to bolster its résumé. KenPom’s game-by-game projections have the Cats losing four of their remaining five Quad 1 games: the home matchup with Tennessee, and the road games at Arkansas, Florida and Mississippi State.

That would be a pretty disastrous scenario for the Wildcats, leaving them with a 20-11 record and 11-7 mark in the SEC heading into the league tournament. It would also leave Kentucky with a 2-10 record in Quad 1 games. All of that together might put the Cats on the wrong side of the bubble on Selection Sunday.

Even a 4-8 mark against Quad 1 competition would put the Cats in an interesting spot.

Last year, only five at-large teams won a third or fewer of their Quad 1 games: 6-seed Texas (5-10 in Quad 1s), 8-seed North Carolina (3-8), 11-seed Michigan (5-10), 11-seed Notre Dame (2-8) and 12-seed Indiana (4-8). Both Notre Dame and Indiana played First Four games in Dayton.

The three highest-rated teams in the NET that failed to make the tournament field were Oklahoma (39th in NET, 4-12 against Quad 1 teams), Xavier (40th, 5-8 vs. Quad 1s) and Texas A&M (43rd, 4-10 vs. Quad 1s).

And none of those three teams had a Quad 4 loss like the one that haunts Kentucky.

The Wildcats clearly have a lot of work to do just to make the NCAA Tournament field, and that begins with taking care of business — and avoiding another stumble — in this week’s games.

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