KS may dump presidential caucuses for primaries, boosting turnout but costing taxpayers

As former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other candidates prepare to compete in the 2024 Republican presidential race, Kansas legislators are weighing a change that would significantly expand how many residents will vote on who should be the party’s nominee.

The GOP-controlled Kansas Legislature is fast-tracking a bill to provide the state Republican and Democratic parties the option to have state-run presidential primary elections next year instead of the current party-run caucuses.

By all accounts, hundreds of thousands of voters would cast a ballot in even a low-turnout primary, compared with about 73,000 Republicans and 39,000 Democrats who participated in the 2016 caucuses.

Past Republican caucuses have involved party-led events in every county on a Saturday, while Democrats in 2020 held their caucuses using a ranked-choice mail-in ballot. A primary – which would be held on a Tuesday and include numerous polling locations just like a typical election – would cost taxpayers approximately $5 million, according to estimates from election officials.

Kansas has used party-run caucuses in past presidential elections with very few exceptions. A state-run primary hasn’t been held since the early 1990s.

The push for one now comes weeks after a tumultuous leadership contest within the Kansas Republican Party. State party officials elected former Johnson County Commissioner Mike Brown, who promoted election conspiracies during his failed run for Kansas secretary of state, won by a two-vote margin in February.

“I think for us, for the next year, democracy is worth the cost,” Helen Van Etten, a former Kansas Republican national committeewoman who was Brown’s sole opponent in the leadership election, told lawmakers last week.

Van Etten was the first person to testify in favor of a primary at a Kansas Senate Federal and State Affairs Committee hearing last week. She didn’t mention Brown, instead focusing on how a primary would boost turnout – making it easier for individuals to vote in advance and expanding the number of hours someone has to vote.

Republican caucuses in the past have typically only allowed voting for two or three hours instead of government-operated polling sites that are open for a whole day.

Brown’s critics have questioned his ability to competently manage the party – and a presidential caucus is arguably the most logistically complex operation a state party undertakes.

Mike Kuckelman, the former Kansas Republican Party chairman, was a vocal opponent of Brown in the run-up to the election, warning that he wasn’t qualified to lead the party. Kuckelman said last month that the party caucus is significant and “we need to be able to count on the state party to get that task done.”

“If we can’t, we’re going to have to do something in short order to accomplish it,” Kuckelman said.

But lawmakers and other officials have publicly dismissed suggestions that providing a primary option is related to Brown. State Sen. Mike Thompson, a Shawnee Republican who chairs the Senate Federal and State Affairs Committee, said he didn’t think there were concerns with party leadership running a caucus.

Predicting a large field of Republican presidential candidates, Thompson said a primary “is a much more transparent and inclusive process and I think you’re going to get a better result.”

The field could include former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a former Wichita congressman. If he runs, Pompeo could receive an outsize vote share in his home state if he’s still in the race when Kansas Republicans vote. But that’s a big if — Pompeo has yet to announce whether he will run and he is currently polling at close to 1% nationally.

Brown didn’t respond to a request for comment. In a newsletter to Republicans earlier this month, he signaled he likes a primary system but also asked for feedback.

“A caucus is less expensive than a primary, BUT it is hugely human-capital intensive,” Brown wrote. “I worked on the caucus in 2016 and I’ve seldom been more exhausted than I was that night.”

After urging Republicans to share their thoughts with legislators, he said: “I prefer the winner-take-all primary election model and I want your opinion.”

Under a winner-take-all system, all of Kansas’ delegates would be awarded to the primary winner. Some state parties allocate delegates based on the proportion of the vote candidates receive. Even if the Legislature approves a state-run primary, party officials would still decide how to assign delegates.

Voting on Tuesday, not Saturday

The legislation under consideration, HB 2053, as currently drafted would authorize a state-run presidential preference primary for both parties on Tuesday, March 19, 2024. The parties could opt out by providing notice by Dec. 1.

March 19 comes after Super Tuesday on March 5, when numerous states will hold primaries and caucuses simultaneously. If the race remains competitive after Super Tuesday, Kansas would take on greater significance as campaigns fight for delegates.

In 2016, both Trump and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas descended on Wichita on the day of Kansas’ Republican caucus to rally supporters. Cruz won 48% of the vote to Trump’s 23%. On the Democratic side, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, who visited liberal-leaning Lawrence ahead of the caucus, swamped former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 68% to 32%.

“Traditionally, Kansas has been later on the primary schedule and from both parties there were arguments that for the amount of money this is costing, it’s not really worth it,” said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University in Topeka and a longtime observer of presidential campaigns.

The Kansas Senate is expected to debate the bill as soon as Tuesday, after the Senate Federal and State Affairs Committee approved it on Friday. The measure, which was introduced just last week, is moving at an unusually quick pace. Senators have also used a procedural maneuver that will allow the Kansas House to send the bill to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly with just one more vote once the Senate passes it.

A spokeswoman for Kelly didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Democrats ready to back primary

Under the proposal, unaffiliated voters would be allowed to choose a party and cast a ballot on Election Day – a choice that likely favors moderate candidates with strong support among independents, as well as candidates who appeal to voters who typically don’t vote or participate in party politics. In 2016, Trump, at that point a party outsider, often won these low-propensity voters.

The primary system itself often aids candidates who can build bases of support beyond the party grassroots. Caucuses tend to help candidates who can win over networks of party activists, who tend to be more conservative or more liberal than the overall electorate – and are more committed to navigating the sometimes byzantine rules that govern these party-run events.

For voters, the simplicity of primary elections translates into higher turnout. For instance, the 10 states with the highest voter turnout in the 2020 Democratic presidential race were all primary states, according to data compiled by Statista, a market and consumer data provider. Republicans didn’t have a competitive nominating contest that year.

This time it’s Democrats who may not have a significantly competitive contest. President Joe Biden is expected to run for reelection but hasn’t officially announced his candidacy yet. While he is currently the nation’s oldest-ever president at 80 and concerns exist about his age, no major candidates have so far entered the race except Marianne Williamson, a self-help author who also ran in 2020 but didn’t attract significant support.

The Kansas Democratic Party has expressed tentative support for a state-run primary. Newly-elected chair Jeanna Repass said it’s extremely expensive for the party to essentially conduct its own statewide election. She said if the party holds a caucus using a mail-in ballot, the printing and postage would cost upwards of $800,000.

“Initially, we view this favorably because of the undue financial burden this puts on the individual state parties to run a presidential primary,” Repass said.

The legislation would authorize a primary in 2024 only. The Legislature would have to pass another bill if it wanted to make the change permanent. Proponents have described the decision as an experiment that, if it goes well, may pave the way for Kansas to adopt a primary system permanently.

But others question the one-time decision to offer a primary.

“This is a taxpayer-funded bailout of the Republican Party, how this is being presented,” said Davis Hammet, president of the Kansas-based civic engagement group Loud Light.

Hammet said he has deep concerns with the caucus system, saying it disenfranchises many residents. But moving Kansas away from it should involve a serious conversation that began at the beginning of the legislative session, not on the current tight time frame, he said.

State Sen. Oletha Faust-Goudeau, a Wichita Democrat, expressed similar reservations. The ranking Democrat on the Senate Federal and State Affairs Committee, Faust-Goudeau said she would prefer that any changes are permanent rather than temporary.

“We’re making a lot of changes and our voters – some will know and some won’t know and some watch TV and the news and they’ll know or don’t know,” Faust-Goudeau said. “But my concern is doing it this one time and then going back to the normal procedure.”

The Star’s Katie Bernard contributed reporting