When we turn our chatter to weather today, what will we talk about?
Perhaps the return of upper-50s lows in Gainesville and Tallahassee, where the kids go to college. The dry, but breezy easterly wind in South Florida that ought to keep Miami and Key West a relatively comfy 80s in the afternoon. The dip to the mid-60s in Orlando as you plan a Disney trip, and a couple degrees warmer as a low in Bradenton.
King tide returns
Officials with Miami-Dade County want you to know, too, about the return of king tides Wednesday and Thursday.
“Residents who live in coastal and low-lying areas may experience flooding, which can worsen if it occurs during bad weather conditions,” the county posted on Twitter.
King Tides are expected tomorrow, Oct. 20 and Thursday, Oct. 21. Residents in #OurCounty who live in coastal and low-lying areas may experience flooding, which can worsen if it occurs during bad weather conditions. Learn how to prepare from @MiamiDadeRER. https://t.co/ocHobxBqud pic.twitter.com/JifBgXF2Hl
— Miami-Dade County (@MiamiDadeCounty) October 19, 2021
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Sea Level Rise Viewer can help you pinpoint your neighborhood and see if you’re vulnerable to king tide flooding.
After Tuesday night’s flirtation with lows in the mid- to upper-50s in the upper reaches of the state and a 78 degree night in Miami, expect the lows to inch back up about five degrees across the state. Highs will reach the 80s through the weekend.
The dry weather has led to a fire weather alert in parts of east-central Florida, according to the National Weather Service in Orlando.
Return of rain
In the spirit of Halloween, the weather service forecast turned punny on Twitter, offering “a gourdous day across South FL today,” followed by the sobering, “You may think it’ll last a few days but that’s witchful thinking. Rain returns later this week.”
Oct 19: A gourdous day across South FL today. You may think it'll last a few days but that's witchful thinking. Rain returns later this week.
Knowing the weather in advance can be helpful. Know before you go by checking https://t.co/ur6yupsPQg for the latest information. pic.twitter.com/fRV0xbPoRx
— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) October 19, 2021
But note that some of these predicted thunderstorms in South Florida in the second half of the week through the weekend could bring lots of lightning, gusty winds and dump rain on grounds already saturated from king tide in some parts.
Rain chances bump from 20% Tuesday and Wednesday to 40% Thursday and are at the highest on Friday with 50%.
A high rip current risk also exists for coastal Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties from Tuesday through Friday evening, according to the weather service in Miami.
Bradenton and Tampa Bay is looking at a 40% chance of rain or thunderstorms Friday but it mostly clears by the weekend.
Orlando and Jacksonville can’t be considered serious umbrella weather, either, with chances at 30% and 20%, respectively, this weekend.
Despite the rain chances in some parts of the state later this week it is dry season with lower humidity, the weather service reminds us. And 2021’s wet season rainfall totals also fell short of 2020’s and are “even somewhat below normal over coastal southeast Florida.”
The wettest location? Collier County with 40 to 50 inches of rain during the season that runs May 15 to Oct. 15.
Miami International Airport’s gauges were almost four inches below normal, with 42 inches of rain measured during the period. And Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport was down more than 9 inches at nearly 29 inches of measured rain.
Marco Island, however, was up more than 5 inches to nearly 44 inches total.
Dry season is here, and so is the lower humidity! However, let's briefly look back at 2021's wet season rainfall totals. Certainly not as wet as last year and even somewhat below normal over coastal SE Florida. Wettest locations were in Collier County with 40-50". #flwx #SoFla pic.twitter.com/QJ21A89AGk
— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) October 18, 2021