Kentucky falling behind early in Bracketology projections. Here’s why that’s important.

There’s a lot of basketball left to be played, but Kentucky has dug itself an early hole in the NCAA Tournament seeding discussion, which should mean more to the Wildcats this year than in most seasons.

Before the start of the 2022-23 campaign, projections were quite rosy for the Cats.

This time last month, UK was widely considered to be a No. 1 seed in the preseason bracketology projections. During the first week of the season — after just one game, in fact — ESPN actually boosted Kentucky to the No. 1 overall seed in the entire 2023 tournament field.

Obviously, a top seed would be welcome news no matter the year, but this particular NCAA Tournament setup offered a particularly beneficial path for the Wildcats, should they make good on the preseason hype.

The reason? One of the sites for the first week of games is nearby Columbus, Ohio, and one of the four regionals this season will be played in even-closer Louisville — a setup that would keep the Cats about as close to home as possible for a potential trip to the program’s first Final Four in eight years.

Things aren’t off to a great start.

Going into the game against Bellarmine on Tuesday night, Kentucky had beat up on lesser-regarded opponents, winning its first four games against such teams by an average of 35.0 points per game — results befitting one of the nation’s top programs.

Against the better squads on UK’s schedule, the outcomes haven’t been good.

First, there was the double-overtime loss to Michigan State in the Champions Classic. And then, the 16-point loss to Gonzaga in Spokane Arena, a contest played in an overly hostile environment but one classified as a “neutral-site” game since it didn’t happen in the Zags’ home venue. To make matters worse for the Cats’ early resume, Michigan State hasn’t looked great since that double-OT victory, and Gonzaga has been blown out twice this season, first at Texas — a few days before the win over Kentucky — and more recently against Purdue.

The result of all of this was reflected in the latest update on the Bracketville website, which is the only site to be named the most accurate bracket twice in the past 15 years, according to BracketMatrix.com.

The new Bracketville breakdown was posted Tuesday morning, and it shows Kentucky as a No. 6 seed in the 2023 tournament. Instead of a route through Columbus and Louisville, this projected path would take the Cats to Orlando for the first week and Kansas City for the second week.

Being seeded so low would also obviously give Kentucky tougher opponents in the early going. In this case, Bracketville has the Cats matched up with the winner of a Providence-Kansas State play-in game, then a likely game against Houston, which is ranked No. 1 in the new AP Top 25 poll but is slotted as a No. 3 seed by Bracketville. (The Cougars’ status in the American Athletic Conference and relatively weak non-conference schedule will give them little room for error in a quest to earn a top seed in the March Madness field).

The No. 1 seeds in the Bracketville bracket are Arizona, Virginia, Texas and Purdue.

Kentucky will still have ample opportunity to climb back into the discussion for a top seed, but the prospects for big wins in the immediate future aren’t looking as good as they did a month ago.

The Cats’ opponent Sunday afternoon — the Michigan Wolverines — were a Top 25 team to start the season, but less-than-stellar play on their end has U-M as the “first team out” of the tournament field on the Bracketville website. UCLA, the Cats’ opponent on Dec. 17, began the season ranked in the top 10, but the Bruins have fallen to a 5 seed in the Bracketville projection.

League play will offer some additional opportunities for major victories. Bracketville has Arkansas as a 2 seed and Tennessee as a 4 seed, and UK plays each team twice. The Cats also have games against Alabama (4 seed), Auburn (7 seed), Mississippi (10 seed), Mississippi State (10 seed) and Louisiana State (12 seed), plus a January game at Rupp Arena against Kansas (projected as a 2 seed).

The Cats will need to win a large chunk of those matchups to end up in Columbus and/or Louisville, where the crowds would likely be packed with Kentucky fans to a much larger degree than in other locales. The next-closest first week sites would be Greensboro, N.C., (where local teams like Duke and North Carolina are hoping to land) and Birmingham. The other five sites are all at least a 10-hour drive from Lexington. The other regional sites are Kansas City, New York and Las Vegas.

The more the Cats win, the more likely it is they’d stay close to home when the bracket is put together in March. The more they lose, the more random those tournament destinations become.

Kentucky drops again in Top 25 college basketball rankings. And there’s a new No. 1.

SEC/ACC Challenge for men’s and women’s college basketball will start in 2023

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is back in the Bluegrass. His new mission goes beyond basketball.

Bellarmine men’s basketball wants to play the best teams. Up next? The Kentucky Wildcats.

Blaming Kentucky’s big-game losses on a lack of practice? What about the Bahamas trip?