Kansas Jayhawks football vs. Duke Blue Devils: Prediction, sports bet line, odds, TV

The details

Kickoff: 3 p.m. Central Saturday

Where: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, North Carolina

TV: ACC Network

Radio: WHB (810 AM) in Kansas City, KFH (1240 AM) in Wichita

The line: Duke by 16.

Prediction

It’s always best to start out with the reality for KU football when it comes to road games: Recent history has not been pretty. The Jayhawks have exactly two road wins in the last 12 seasons, with only one of those — against Boston College in 2019 — coming against a Power Five opponent.

The track record, then, doesn’t suggest great things for KU as it travels to face Duke, which previously defeated the Jayhawks 41-3 in Durham, North Carolina during the 2014 season.

Having said that ... I think there are a lot of reason to like the Jayhawks when it comes to the Vegas spread.

The first is just that the 16-point projected margin is likely inflated based on recency bias. KU couldn’t have looked much worse in the second half of last week’s 45-7 home loss to Baylor, while Duke played above expectations in a 30-23 home win over Northwestern.

KU, to be honest, probably was a bit unfortunate the last two weeks to play uber-experienced teams like Coastal Carolina and Baylor. The Jayhawks’ game plan right now — facing an abbreviated preparation period because of Coach Lance Leipold’s late hire in April — has simply been to avoid making self-inflicted mistakes while hoping the other team makes some gaffes of its own.

Coastal Carolina and Baylor were good and talented enough to not do that in the second half. Duke, however, is much more vulnerable.

The Blue Devils were buoyed quite a bit last week by Northwestern turning the ball over five times. At roughly five points per turnover, the Wildcats essentially handed away 25 points ... and Duke still had to hold on at the end to secure the victory.

Meanwhile, Duke’s recent history also says it can be generous at times. The Blue Devils were near the bottom of the nation last year with a negative-19 turnover margin, and they also gave it away three times last week.

KU’s offense should be better too. Quarterback Jason Bean was an ankle tackle away from a couple big runs a week ago, and while those types of plays can’t exactly be predicted ... it sure seems likely that if he continues to have those chances, one will result in him springing for a TD.

I won’t go as far to take KU for the upset, but I do like the Jayhawks for the cover. It seems like a spot where KU will see — and take advantage of — more opponent mistakes than have been available the last two weeks.

Duke 34, Kansas 24

Last game prediction: Baylor 31, Kansas 10 (Actual: Baylor 45-7)

2021 record on picks: 3-0

2021 record vs. spread: 3-0