Interest Rate Hikes Drive Down Home Sales and New Listings in November

Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Trreb Calls Increased Borrowing Costs ‘Short-Term Shock’

TORONTO, Dec. 06, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Homeownership market activity in November continued to be influenced by the impact of higher borrowing costs on affordability. Sales were down markedly compared to the same period last year, following the trend that unfolded since the commencement of interest rate hikes in the spring. New listings were also down substantially from last year, and at a very low level historically. The fact that the supply of homes for sale has remained low, has supported average selling prices at the $1.08 to $1.09 million mark since August.

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 4,544 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2022 – down 49 per cent compared to November 2021, but remaining at a similar level to October especially after considering the recurring seasonal downward trend in the fall. New listings, at 8,880, were down on both a year-over-year basis and month-over-month basis.

“Increased borrowing costs represent a short-term shock to the housing market. Over the medium- to long-term, the demand for ownership housing will pick up strongly. This is because a huge share of record immigration will be pointed at the GTA and the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) in the coming years, and all of these people will require a place to live, with the majority looking to buy. The long-term problem for policymakers will not be inflation and borrowing costs, but rather ensuring we have enough housing to accommodate population growth,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

“We have seen a lot of progress this year on the housing supply and related governance files such as the More Homes Built Faster Act. This is obviously good news. However, we need these new policies to turn into results over the next year. Otherwise, the current market lull will soon be behind us, population growth will be accelerating, and we will have done nothing to account for our growing housing need. The result would be enhanced unaffordability and reduced economic competitiveness,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was down by 5.5 per cent year-over-year in November 2022. The average selling price for all home types combined was down by 7.2 per cent year-over-year. Annual price declines continued to be greater for more expensive market segments, including detached and semi-detached houses.

“Selling prices declined from the early year peak as market conditions became more balanced and homebuyers have sought to mitigate the impact of higher borrowing costs. With that being said, the marked downward price trend experienced in the spring has come to an end. Selling prices have flatlined alongside average monthly mortgage payments since the summer,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price November 1–30, 2022

 

2022

2021

 

Sales

Average Price

New
Listings

Sales

Average Price

New
Listings

City of Toronto
("416")

1,798

1,050,788

3,562

3,576

1,096,875

4,253

Rest of GTA
("905")

2,746

1,098,127

5,318

5,403

1,206,041

5,791

GTA

4,544

1,079,395

8,880

8,979

1,162,564

10,044

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type November 1–30, 2022

 

Sales

Average Price

 

416

905

Total

416

905

Total

Detached

542

1,514

2,056

1,560,548

1,329,165

1,390,162

Yr./Yr. %
Change

-40.6%

-48.2%

-46.4%

-13.8%

-10.9%

-11.3%

Semi-Detached

169

217

386

1,187,016

924,080

1,039,200

Yr./Yr. %
Change

-40.3%

-53.8%

-48.7%

-17.1%

-13.7%

-13.9%

Townhouse

178

596

774

995,074

872,014

900,314

Yr./Yr. %
Change

-53.3%

-44.0%

-46.4%

1.4%

-8.7%

-6.4%

Condo
Apartment

899

390

1,289

734,797

648,332

708,636

Yr./Yr. %
Change

-54.5%

-55.9%

-54.9%

-1.5%

0.3%

-0.9%


November 2022 Year-Over-Year Per Cent Change in the MLS® HPI

 

Composite
(All Types)

Single-
Family
Detached

Single-Family Attached

Townhouse

Apartment

TRREB Total

-5.49%

-7.73%

-6.81%

-1.42%

2.88%

Halton Region

-11.18%

-12.49%

-12.63%

-7.67%

1.14%

Peel Region

-5.08%

-7.13%

-7.02%

0.43%

6.66%

City of Toronto

-4.25%

-7.94%

-7.34%

1.78%

2.05%

York Region

-1.57%

-2.99%

-1.40%

-0.76%

4.62%

Durham Region

-8.57%

-9.03%

-9.56%

-2.93%

2.06%

Orangeville

-4.04%

-4.97%

-4.97%

2.84%

13.47%

South Simcoe
County1

-9.17%

-10.08%

-5.48%

-1.15%

5.00%

Source:Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
1South Simcoe includes Adjala-Tosorontio, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Essa, Innisfil and New Tecumseth
Please note the methodology used to calculate MLS® HPI has been changed. For more information, click HERE.

 

 


Year-to-Date Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price November 2022

 

2022

2021

 

Sales

Average
Price

New
Listings

Sales

Average Price

New Listings

City of Toronto
("416")

26,616

1,145,933

53,937

41,101

1,058,539

61,097

Rest of GTA ("905")

45,442

1,225,238

94,859

74,525

1,110,582

100,326

GTA

72,058

1,195,945

148,796

115,626

1,092,082

161,423

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


YTD TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type November 2022

 

Sales

Average Price

 

416

905

Total

416

905

Total

Detached

7,368

24,872

32,240

1,798,881

1,479,149

1,552,219

Yr./Yr. %
Change

-32.4%

-39.9%

-38.3%

4.6%

9.1%

8.4%

Semi-Detached

2,484

4,175

6,659

1,374,125

1,079,080

1,189,140

Yr./Yr. %
Change

-33.8%

-38.9%

-37.1%

5.9%

13.6%

10.8%

Townhouse

2,660

9,474

12,134

1,045,249

982,379

996,162

Yr./Yr. %
Change

-41.2%

-38.6%

-39.2%

11.1%

14.3%

13.4%

Condo
Apartment

13,898

6,465

20,363

784,526

709,189

760,608

Yr./Yr. %
Change

-35.9%

-35.7%

-35.8%

10.1%

16.8%

12.0%

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Seasonally Adjusted TRREB MLS® Sales and Average Price1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sales

Month-over-Month %
Chg.

Average Price

Month-over-Month %
Chg.

November '21

9,906

11.2%

$1,184,604

2.2%

December '21

9,583

-3.3%

$1,212,425

2.3%

January '22

9,105

-5.0%

$1,272,615

5.0%

February '22

9,466

4.0%

$1,285,175

1.0%

March '22

8,028

-15.2%

$1,252,487

-2.5%

April '22

6,644

-17.2%

$1,203,902

-3.9%

May '22

5,977

-10.0%

$1,169,407

-2.9%

June '22

5,610

-6.1%

$1,136,085

-2.8%

July '22

5,224

-6.9%

$1,109,125

-2.4%

August '22

5,683

8.8%

$1,123,306

1.3%

September '22

5,091

-10.4%

$1,098,106

-2.2%

October '22

5,007

-1.6%

$1,098,046

0.0%

November '22

4,886

-2.4%

$1,101,730

0.3%

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board; CREA Seasonal Adjustment. 1 Preliminary seasonal adjustment undertaken by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).  Removing normal seasonal variations allows for more meaningful analysis of monthly changes and underlying trends.

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Media Inquiries:
Genevieve Grant, Manager, Public Affairs genevieve.grant@trreb.ca 416-443-8159

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board with almost 70,000 residential and commercial professionals connecting people, property and communities.

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