Idaho’s COVID-19 positivity rate jumps for fifth straight week. How high is it now?

Idaho’s COVID-19 positivity rate rose to 38.8% the week of Jan. 16, marking the highest percentage during the pandemic and the fifth straight week of steep increases.

The positivity rate measures the proportion of laboratory COVID-19 tests taken by Idahoans that come back positive. The exceptionally high rate is yet another sign of omicron’s reach within Idaho, where nearly 50,000 cases have been recorded since the start of January — more than 13% of all the cases recorded since the pandemic began.

And the recently recorded cases are well below the actual tally, since health officials are behind in recording some 42,000 positive test samples added recently, according to the state’s data dashboard.

While 16,422 new cases were officially recorded the week of Jan. 17, the Department of Health and Welfare estimates the actual tally for the week was around 29,800.

Central District Health, which includes Ada County, had a positivity rate of 35.5% for the week of Jan. 16. Eastern Idaho Public Health, which includes the Idaho Falls area, had a rate of 50%, highest in the state.

Public health officials consider a positivity rate of 5% or less to indicate control of a respiratory pandemic. The state’s current rate is nearly eight times that.

The highly contagious omicron variant identified in recent months quickly supplanted the delta variant in Idaho, with more than 80% of positive tests sequenced in Idaho since mid-December attributed to the new strain. Only a portion of positive tests taken are genomically sequenced by laboratories.

Case levels had been trending downward in November and early December, after a major peak in October. But the rise since late December has been steep.

As recently as the week of Dec. 12, the state’s positivity rate was 5.5%, according to the dashboard. The week of Dec. 26, it had climbed to 17.5%, and the following week it jumped to 27.4%.

Since the week of Jan. 2, the state’s positivity rate has set a record every week.

Prior to the recent surge in cases caused by the omicron variant, the highest positivity rate recorded during the pandemic was in 2020, when it was 19.1% the week of Nov. 15. Last fall, when hospitals entered crisis standards of care for the first time in state history, the rate was 17.3% for the week of Sept. 11.

The omicron surge caused Health and Welfare to reactive crisis standards across three health districts in the southern part of the state on Monday.

“This omicron surge is putting pressure on the entire Idaho health care system,” Dave Jeppesen, the director of Health and Welfare, said at a Tuesday press briefing. “The situation with the health care systems for the rest of the state remains very fragile. If current trends continue I expect that crisis standards of care will be activated in additional areas of the state.”

The positivity rate data, which is published on Thursdays, is always delayed a week.

“I wish we could be done with the pandemic,” Jeppesen said. “But unfortunately, the pandemic is not done with us. But there are things we can do. I cannot emphasize how important it is — right now — to properly wear a high quality mask. Avoid crowds, physically distance when in public, wash your hands often and stay home when you’re sick. … If you haven’t been vaccinated or received your flu shot, please consider choosing to do so.”