Is Gordon Hayward worth a $120 million cap hit? How he changes the Hornets’ future

The Charlotte Hornets are about to make their biggest free-agent plunge since...well, maybe ever.

The Hornets have come to terms with Boston Celtics forward Gordon Hayward on a four-year, $120 million deal. They’ll use up their nearly $20 million in salary cap space to do this. And that alone doesn’t get it done; the Hornets will either do a sign-and-trade with the Celtics, or waive Nic Batum and use the NBA’s stretch provision to facilitate the signing.

Risky? Absolutely. Hayward is 30 and has had two injuries in the past three years -- one of them a gruesome leg injury in 2017.

Answering four questions on how this acquisition impacts the Hornets:

Are the Hornets overpaying Gordon Hayward?

Almost certainly yes. That’s the nature of free agency for teams that are far from contention, and aren’t in destination cities like Miami and Los Angeles.

The Hornets can’t recruit free agents on a track record of winning (no conference final appearances since the NBA first arrived in 1988) or a roster loaded with complementary talent. The only advantage they had when Hayward opted out of the last $34 million season on his contract was cap space and a willingness to spend it on him.

Other teams — the Indiana Pacers, the Atlanta Hawks and the New York Knicks — were reportedly also interested in Hayward. Hornets owner Michael Jordan signed off on this massive financial offer, and the deal was struck Saturday.

The Hornets’ history with free agency since the NBA returned to Charlotte in 2004 is pretty tame: Al Jefferson and Marvin Williams worked out well. The Utah Jazz matched an offer sheet in 2014 the first time the Hornets pursued then-restricted free agent Hayward. Signing Lance Stephenson, after the Hayward pursuit fell through, was a failure that lasted one season.

This Hayward signing is bold, using up cap space Kupchak worked two years to create. This signing to a large degree could define whether Kupchak’s tenure with the Hornets is a success.

Then why sign Gordon Hayward?

It’s a head-scratcher, considering how many times Kupchak said over the past year it wasn’t his intention to be a big bidder for the 2020 free-agent class.

A representative Kupchak quote before the start of last season: “We will not be an active player (in 2020 free agency). I think we can build a culture here and get enough assets and have a promising enough future and really attract the kind of free agent you want to spend that kind of money on — but I don’t think you can do it right now.”

After Kemba Walker left for the Celtics, the Hornets made a hard pivot to youth and a rebuild. Kupchak frequently uses the word “sustainability” as the goal, rather than quick fixes.

Here’s the argument for signing Hayward: The Hornets are the most starless team in the NBA. I’ve had scouts from other teams tell me there isn’t one player on Charlotte’s roster from last season who you know would be in the rotation of a contender.

Hayward is a former All-Star (2017) with a 10-year record of NBA impact. If he stays healthy — no given — he should be Charlotte’s best player this season and arguably beyond.

Is that worth $120 million over four seasons? Very questionable.

What does he do?

A little of everything. When the Hornets recruited Hayward in 2014, the word “connector” came up frequently: As in Hayward can score, but he is also a playmaker/decision-maker with the ball.

Over 10 seasons, Hayward has averaged 15.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He shoots very efficiently: 45% from the field and 37% from 3-point range. The Hornets are an inefficient shooting team: Last in field-goal percentage (43.4%) and 19th among 30 teams in 3-point percentage (35.2%)

One of the things that likely pushed Hayward to leave Boston was how the Celtics’ roster evolved away from him. While he recovered from a season-long injury in 2017-18, teammates Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown blossomed. By the end of his time in Boston, Hayward was probably the Celtics’ fourth option behind Tatum, Walker and Brown (with Marcus Smart also in that discussion).

Hayward’s role will be large with the Hornets; figure on him having the ball more than any other player, at least until rookie LaMelo Ball assimilates into the NBA. Coach James Borrego wants a free-flowing style where a number of players are empowered to start the offense.

Borrego and Kupchak also embrace small-ball. As Borrego said on draft night, he wouldn’t be against sometimes having five players 6-7 or smaller on the court together. That plays to Hayward’s versatility.

How will Gordon Hayward affect others?

Hayward’s primary position is small forward, but he could play some at both power forward and shooting guard. He has averaged 31 minutes per game over his career, and there’s no reason to think he’d play fewer as a Hornet.

Those minutes must come from somewhere. Who on the current roster could be most affected:

Miles Bridges: Bridges has started at small forward the past two seasons. He’s a bit miscast at that position; he is more a power forward at the NBA level. Remember, Borrego’s intention last season was to start Bridges at power forward, before rookie P.J. Washington’s great preseason launched him into the starting rotation.

Bridges coming off the bench, and playing as much at power forward as small forward, figures to be a side effect of adding Hayward. There are also ways Hayward could play some shooting guard with Bridges and Washington as the forwards.

Terry Rozier: Rozier became the starting shooting guard last season to make room for Devonte Graham as the starting point guard. He’s best suited as a combo guard and the Hornets still owe him about $19 million this season and $18 million next season.

Adding Ball and Hayward potentially squeezes the ways to use Rozier, who averaged a career-high 34 minutes last season. Potentially starting Graham and Ball in the backcourt, and the option to use Hayward part-time at shooting guard, would eat up some of the opportunity Rozier got in averaging 18 points last season.

Martin twins: Cody and Caleb Martin had solid rookie seasons in Charlotte, particularly considering Cody was a second-round pick and Caleb an undrafted free agent. They are worth continuing to develop.

However, Hayward will and must play heavy minutes at the wing positions the Martins play. The NBA ceiling for both Martins is probably rotation reserves. Their presence is not an argument against adding Hayward to Charlotte’s roster.