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Friday briefing: Lib Dems put a chink in ‘blue wall’ at byelection

<span>Photograph: Jim Dyson/Getty Images</span>
Photograph: Jim Dyson/Getty Images

Top story: ‘This is a huge victory’

Good morning, I’m Warren Murray. Hopefully this will hit the spot.

The Liberal Democrats have won a byelection in the Buckinghamshire constituency of Chesham and Amersham, taking the formerly safe seat from the Tories. In a shock result, Lib Dem Sarah Green secured 21,517 votes, leaving the Conservative Peter Fleet trailing with 13,489, and giving the Lib Dems a majority of 8,028. The contest was called after the death of the local MP Cheryl Gillan, who had represented the constituency since 1992 and held it in 2019 with a majority of 16,223.

Ed Davey’s party will hope the surprise win shows that a swath of seats across the home counties could now be within their grasp at the next general election. Davey said his party secured a huge swing of 25 points to win Chesham and Amersham, claiming: “The Tory ‘blue wall’ is beginning to crumble … This is a huge victory for the Liberal Democrats.” Turnout in the byelection was just over 52%.

The result will alarm strategists at Conservative HQ. Boris Johnson has made significant gains in former Labour-held areas in the Midlands and the north-east, including snatching Hartlepool last month in a rare gain for a governing party in a byelection. But he also needs to avoid alienating his party’s more traditional supporters.

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‘Disaster for our industry’ – British food and drink exports to the EU fell by £2bn in the first three months of 2021, with sales of dairy products plummeting by 90%, according to an analysis of HMRC data. The sector says it shows there are not just post-Brexit teething problems at the border. “The loss of £2bn of exports to the EU is a disaster for our industry, and is a very clear indication of the scale of losses that UK manufacturers face in the longer term due to new trade barriers with the EU,” said Dominic Goudie from the Food and Drink Federation (FDF). Overall food and drink exports to Ireland fell by 70.8% year on year, to Spain by 63%, Italy 61% and Germany 55%. The HMRC figures show dairy products down more than 90% and exports of cheese down by two-thirds compared with 2020. Whisky fell 32%, chocolate 37% and lamb and mutton 14%. Goudie called on the government to “stop prevaricating” over proposals to help exporters who have been “shut out of trading with the EU”.

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Stormont doubts after Poots ouster – Edwin Poots has been forced to resign as leader of the Democratic Unionists after just 21 days in the job, triggering further turmoil in the Northern Ireland assembly. DUP members objected to a day-old deal whereby Sinn Féin rejoined the Stormont leadership duumvirate in return for progress on a long-promised Irish language act. On Thursday this had allowed Poots’s protégé, Paul Givan, 39, to become Northern Ireland’s youngest ever first minister. But now the ouster of Poots appears to leave a question mark over the future of Givan and the entire executive. In a tweet, Tim Farron, who led the Liberal Democrats for two years, marvelled at the brevity of Poots’s tenure. “Seriously, even I lasted longer than that,” he wrote.

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‘Systemic failings’ – Ministers have apologised unreservedly to rape victims, saying they are “deeply ashamed” that thousands of survivors have been failed on the government’s watch. The police and the CPS have been ordered to work together to increase the number of rape cases making it to court in England and Wales and return prosecutions to 2016 levels before the end of this parliament. The lord chancellor, Robert Buckland QC MP, said he was “deeply sorry” many victims had been denied justice “as a result of systemic failings” after years of austerity. Charities and victim groups welcomed the apology but said the measures lacked urgency and were underfunded.

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‘Great nations don’t walk away’ – The US will officially recognise Juneteenth as a federal holiday commemorating the end of slavery in America. At a jubilant White House ceremony, Joe Biden said Juneteenth National Independence Day would show that “great nations don’t walk away. We come to terms with the mistakes we made. And remembering those moments, we begin to heal and grow stronger.”

Juneteenth marks 19 June 1865, the day that news of the Emancipation Proclamation reached the people of Galveston, Texas, freeing slaves in the last rebel state. Just before signing the bill, Biden added: “I’ve only been president for several months, but I think this will go down for me as one of the greatest honours I will have had as president.”

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‘It’s heartbreaking’ – A pride march is to go ahead in Budapest amid anger after the rightwing Hungarian government of Viktor Orbán brought in legislation likened by critics to Russia’s “gay propaganda” law. The measures make it illegal for information the government considers to promote homosexuality or gender change to be shared with under-18s. Gay people will not feature in school educational materials, TV shows for under-18s, or adverts if they are deemed to target that age group.

A participant holds a placard reading ‘Down with the fascist government’ in front of the parliament building in Budapest
A participant holds a placard reading ‘Down with the fascist government’ in front of the parliament building in Budapest. Photograph: Gergely Besenyei/AFP/Getty Images

Viktória Radványi of Budapest Pride said: “It’s heartbreaking. Teenagers are texting [us] saying they are waking up crying as they cannot deal with this law … They cannot imagine how they can live a full and relatively happy life in Hungary any more.” The march will take place on 24 July, billed as the culmination of a month-long series of events starting on 25 June.

Today in Focus podcast: Why knee-takers won’t be bowed

England’s footballers will take the knee before their match against Scotland at Wembley tonight in an anti-racism protest that has divided supporters. Liam Rosenior and Paul MacInnes reflect on how football became enmeshed in the culture wars.

Lunchtime read: So, see you back at work?

The government’s work from home guidance in England could end next month, leaving three options, explained here by Joanna Partridge and Kalyeena Makortoff.

Workers in their masks make their way down the streets near the Bank of England in the City of London
Workers in the City of London. Photograph: Andy Hall/The Observer

Sport

Gareth Southgate has said that England will not make the mistake of underestimating Scotland on Friday evening and has told his players not to be shrinking violets when they face Steve Clarke’s side. A great rivalry will be resumed at Wembley, but there is a sense that old enmities and old hysterias may no longer be strictly necessary, writes Jonathan Liew. Naomi Osaka and Rafael Nadal have pulled out of this year’s Wimbledon, depriving the tournament of two of its biggest stars. Russell Henley and Louis Oosthuizen shared the lead after the first day of the US Open, which was affected by fog at Torrey Pines.

A misjudged strategy by the normally masterly Frankie Dettori scuppered Stradivarius’s chances of a fourth Gold Cup triumph at Royal Ascot. India captain Virat Kohli has said his team were on “a quest for excellence” going into their World Test Championship final against New Zealand at the Rose Bowl, but would not see it as do or die. England’s women fought back hard in the final 45 minutes of play on day two to reduce India from 167 without loss to 187 for five at the close, still 59 runs away from avoiding the follow-on in the one-off Test match. Tottenham have opened talks with Gennaro Gattuso after their move to appoint Paulo Fonseca broke down in the latest blow to their search for a manager. And Lewis Hamilton has insisted he is not wilting under pressure in his Formula One world championship fight with Max Verstappen.

Business

The fiasco of Cristiano Ronaldo and the Coca-Cola Stars bottles have highlighted the risks to big brands in the social media age. The Portugal captain has shown that someone with 550 million followers is beyond the control of sport sponsors. The FTSE100 is set to fall slightly this morning after a dip yesterday. The pound is on $1.398 and €1.168.

The papers

Our Guardian print splash today is the hopefully pivotal report on how rape prosecutions are handled and the promise of reforms to criminal justice and victim support. Also on the front: there will be no edict from the government for employees to return to the workplace once lockdown ends in England. The Daily Mail keeps pressure on the government, asking: “Could we be free on July 5?” It says Downing Street has “opened the door to this” as jabs are shown to be working well and infection rates slow.

The Financial Times says “Channel 4 set on course towards privatisation as soon as next year” – you can read the Guardian version here. The public service broadcaster is publicly owned but does not receive government funding, with its advertising earnings keeping it running. Some others lead on England v Scotland. “Beers but no cheers”, says the Metro as it claims pubs can be fined under Covid rules if their patrons get too celebratory. The Times has “Uefa threat over Euro final” saying the governing body wants quarantine waived for 2,500 officials or it will move the final from Wembley to Budapest.

“They were failed” – the Mirror on the Manchester bombing public inquiry. Our report says the Manchester Arena suicide bomber Salman Abedi should have been identified as a security threat on the night of the attack, according to Sir John Saunders, chair of the inquiry. The attack killed 22 people and injured hundreds more. “Nine missed chances cost 22 lives” says the Express. The Telegraph’s lead story is “Scrap school Covid tests, says Oxford jab pioneer” – it quotes Prof Sir Andrew Pollard as saying the consequences of testing might not be worth the disruption to education.

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