What will fix the worker shortage in Manatee County? Here’s what a top economist said

Renowned economist Hank Fishkind touched on child care, a crucial issue for families, in his 2022 economic forecast for Manatee County.

The return of the workforce has not been “as robust as expected,” Fishkind said Wednesday in an understatement, echoing a refrain among employers that they have jobs but can’t find enough workers.

The reason? Mostly pandemic-related.

“Roughly 10% said they were sick. Another 10% said they were taking care of someone who was sick. Part of it was government payments. Part of it was child care needs,” he said.

Fishkind presented his predictions to a crowd of more than 300 who attended the Bradenton Area Economic Development Corporation’s 2022 economic forecast breakfast Wednesday morning at the Bradenton Area Convention Center.

Sharon Hillstrom, executive director of BAEDC, said child care accessibility and affordability is something that her organization and its partners want to take a look at this year.

When the pandemic arrived — and schools and day care facilities closed their doors — many working moms decided it was better to stay home with their children. In many cases, they had no choice.

Many of the those in entry-level, consumer-facing, service-oriented jobs are women, she said.

“We want to get a handle on what the situation in Manatee County is and how we can address some of the barriers that exist,” Hillstrom said.

“Right now, workforce is a huge issue for pretty much every business we have in Manatee County, and probably in the region,” she said.

Another factor is more people are retiring, or taking early retirement, Fishkind said.

But one thing helping entice workers to return is the significant increase in wages since the arrival of the pandemic, he said.

“If omicron continues to wind down, and federal payments are a thing of the past, I think it gets better from here,” Fishkind said of the return of workers to the workplace.

The pandemic has helped accelerate some of the trends in the business world, including working from home.

“It has untethered business and employees. This is very significant,” Fishkind said of the exodus of workers from high-tax states to Florida.

“It might be better to work from home in Tampa than in Toledo,” he said. “I think we will continue to see this trend for the next several years.”

Fishkind also took note of the over-heated housing market and the steep run-up in prices, and predicted that prices will level off as inventory improves, but not return to pre-pandemic levels.

“Housing starts will peak in 2022 and slow down in the next few years,” he said.

“We will have strong population growth in Florida for the next few years, and Manatee County will benefit from this greatly,” he said.

“The population numbers will go up significantly in the next few years. Population growth will be stronger in 2022 than in 2021,” he said.

Andrew Stultz, president of Atlas Building Company, attended Wednesday’s breakfast meeting and said Fishkind’s remarks seemed on on track.

“It reinforces what we see with the growth of the area everyday, with the vehicle plates from different states and traffic at the airport,” Stultz said.

Timothy J. Coop, Tampa Bay regional president for Hancock Whitney Bank, said his big takeaways were Fishkind’s predictions that the rate of inflation will be better under control by the year and that there will be some easing of supply chain issues.

Fishkind is a top economist in Florida having served as advisors to Govs. Bob Graham and Jeb Bush, legislators and large companies. He delivers economic forecasts annually to various parts of the state.